2024-2025 年 XRP 價格預測：為什麼 XRP 現在下跌？

隨著比特幣 (BTC) 跌至 11 月底以來的最低水平，加密貨幣市場傳統年底飆升的希望正在破滅

Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped to $92,442 on December 24, a 14.5% decline from its all-time peak of $108,000 reached just a week ago.

12 月 24 日，比特幣 (BTC) 價格跌至 92,442 美元，較一週前達到的歷史高峰 108,000 美元下跌了 14.5%。

The leading token briefly attempted to recover above $95,000 before settling around $94,000 in early trading, still maintaining an 11% loss over the past week.

領先的代幣一度試圖恢復至 95,000 美元以上，然後在早盤交易中穩定在 94,000 美元左右，但過去一周仍保持 11% 的跌幅。

At the same time, XRP is currently trading at $2.23, down nearly 14% over the past seven days. The 24-hour low stands at $2.1298, testing the current local support level.

同時，XRP 目前交易價格為 2.23 美元，過去 7 天下跌近 14%。 24小時低點為2.1298美元，測試目前的本地支撐位。

XRP's 24-hour trading volume stands at $11.09 billion, indicating significant market participation despite persistent selling pressure. The token faces critical support at $2.17, with technical indicators showing mixed signals for potential recovery.

XRP 的 24 小時交易量為 110.9 億美元，顯示儘管拋售壓力持續存在，但市場參與度很高。該代幣面臨 2.17 美元的關鍵支撐，技術指標顯示出潛在復甦的混合訊號。

This decline comes at a time when crypto markets traditionally experience what traders call a "Santa Claus rally" – a period of price appreciation during the final days of December and early January.

這種下跌發生之際，加密貨幣市場傳統上會經歷交易者所說的“聖誕老人反彈”，即 12 月最後幾天和 1 月初價格上漲的時期。

Historical data shows that crypto markets have demonstrated positive performance during the holiday season in previous bull markets. Analysis reveals that between 2014 and 2023, the crypto market experienced holiday rallies in eight out of ten instances, with gains ranging from 0.7% to 11.8%.

歷史數據顯示，加密貨幣市場在歷次牛市中的假期期間都表現出了積極的表現。分析顯示，2014 年至 2023 年間，加密貨幣市場十有八九都經歷了假期上漲，漲幅從 0.7% 到 11.8% 不等。

A significant market event looms on December 27, with approximately $18 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts set to expire, potentially introducing additional market volatility. Despite the current downturn, market sentiment indicators suggest a possible recovery, as Bitcoin's social sentiment reached its yearly low on December 22.

12 月 27 日，一場重大市場事件即將來臨，價值約 180 億美元的比特幣和以太坊選擇權合約即將到期，可能會帶來額外的市場波動。儘管目前經濟低迷，但市場情緒指標表明可能會復甦，因為比特幣的社會情緒在 12 月 22 日觸及年度低點。

The cryptocurrency's sharp descent began following the Federal Reserve's December 18 policy meeting. While the Fed reduced its benchmark rate to 4.25%–4.5%, Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish tone caught investors off guard. The Fed's projection of only two quarter-point rate cuts in 2025, down from the previously expected four, has tightened global liquidity conditions.

聯準會 12 月 18 日政策會議後，加密貨幣開始急劇下跌。儘管聯準會將基準利率下調至4.25%–4.5%，但主席鮑威爾的鷹派語氣讓投資人措手不及。聯準會預計 2025 年僅降息兩次，低於先前預期的四次，導致全球流動性狀況收緊。

The U.S. Dollar Index's surge to 108.15, its highest level in months, has further pressured cryptocurrency valuations. This strengthening dollar has made speculative assets less attractive to investors, contributing to XRP's downward trajectory.

美元指數飆升至數月來最高水準108.15，進一步令加密貨幣估值承壓。美元走強降低了投機資產對投資者的吸引力，導致 XRP 下跌。

The current market structure shows XRP trading below key support levels, with immediate resistance at $2.49. The daily chart maintains a bullish long-term outlook, with technical patterns suggesting potential for higher prices if market conditions improve.

目前的市場結構顯示 XRP 交易低於關鍵支撐位，直接阻力位在 2.49 美元。日線圖維持看漲的長期前景，技術模式表明，如果市場狀況改善，價格可能會上漲。

Looking at the XRP chart below, we observe a flag pattern within which the current price correction is moving. The chart has paused around the $2.20 support level. Even if this level is breached, the next support levels are the psychological $2.00, followed by $1.89, and then the 50 EMA at $1.82. A drop below this zone would indicate to me that the flag pattern has been invalidated, and bears might start to dominate the XRP chart.

看看下面的 XRP 圖表，我們觀察到當前價格修正正在其中移動的旗形模式。該圖表已在 2.20 美元支撐位附近徘徊。即使該水平被突破，下一個支撐位是 2.00 美元的心理支撐位，然後是 1.89 美元，然後是 1.82 美元的 50 EMA。跌破該區域將表明旗形模式已失效，空頭可能開始主導 XRP 圖表。

Above these levels, however, downward corrections should be seen as opportunities to accumulate XRP at more attractive prices.

然而，高於這些水平，向下修正應被視為以更具吸引力的價格累積 XRP 的機會。

Resistance levels, on the other hand, are currently at $2.49, $2.71 (the highs from December 17), and $2.91 (this year’s peaks).

另一方面，目前的阻力位在 2.49 美元、2.71 美元（12 月 17 日以來的高點）和 2.91 美元（今年的高峰）。

The minimum expected price for XRP in December 2024 is projected at $1.91, with a maximum potential of $2.56. Market analysts anticipate an average trading price of $2.24 during this period.

2024 年 12 月 XRP 的最低預期價格預計為 1.91 美元，最高潛力為 2.56 美元。市場分析師預計這段期間的平均交易價格為 2.24 美元。

This complex interplay of macroeconomic factors, market sentiment, and technical indicators will likely continue to influence XRP's price trajectory through 2024 and beyond. While short-term pressures persist, long-term projections remain cautiously optimistic, though investors should maintain awareness of the market's inherent volatility and risk factors.

宏觀經濟因素、市場情緒和技術指標之間的複雜交互作用可能會繼續影響 2024 年及以後 XRP 的價格軌跡。儘管短期壓力持續存在，但長期預測仍保持謹慎樂觀，但投資者應保持對市場固有波動性和風險因素的認識。