比特幣：2,100萬枚何時會全部開採完畢，剩餘供應耗儘後會發生什麼事？

雖然 2,100 萬枚比特幣中有近 20 枚是在比特幣存在的頭 14 年內開采的，但比特幣的最後剩餘部分要到 2140 年才會耗盡。

Nearly 20 million of the total 21 million bitcoins were mined within the first 14 years of Bitcoin’s existence. However, the last remaining fractions of Bitcoin will be mined only in 2140.

比特幣總量 2,100 萬枚中，有近 2,000 萬枚是在比特幣存在的頭 14 年內開採的。然而，比特幣的最後剩餘部分要到 2140 年才會被開採。

The reason is that the Bitcoin emission is set to drop by 50% roughly once every four years every time another 210,000 blocks are mined. The drop in BTC emissions is referred to as “halving.”

原因是，每當另外開採 21 萬個區塊時，比特幣排放量大約每四年就會下降 50%。 BTC 排放量的下降被稱為「減半」。

As of December 2024, each mined block unlocks 3.25 BTC as a mining reward. In 2140, this amount will drop below the smallest fraction of Bitcoin, known as Satoshi, a one-millionth particle of Bitcoin. As Satoshi is set to be a minimal fraction of Bitcoin, the 2140 halving will effectively stop the emission of bitcoins. 

截至 2024 年 12 月，每個開採區塊解鎖 3.25 BTC 作為挖礦獎勵。到 2140 年，這筆金額將降至比特幣的最小部分（即比特幣的百萬分之一）「中本聰」以下。由於中本聰將佔比特幣的極小部分，因此 2140 年減半將有效阻止比特幣的發行。

Mining is at the heart of the Bitcoin network’s validity and safety, while mining rewards are the prime incentive for miners to continue their troublesome operations. Happily, when the emission of new bitcoins stops, miners will still receive rewards. Instead of getting freshly minted coins, they will receive portions of the transaction fees charged from the senders. It’s worth saying that fees paid by senders for transaction prioritization already make up a substantial portion of miner rewards.

挖礦是比特幣網路有效性和安全性的核心，而挖礦獎勵是礦工繼續進行麻煩操作的主要動力。令人高興的是，當新比特幣停止發行時，礦工仍將獲得獎勵。他們不會獲得新鑄造的硬幣，而是會收到發送者收取的部分交易費用。值得一提的是，發送者為交易優先順序支付的費用已經佔了礦工獎勵的很大一部分。

Why does the Bitcoin scarcity matter?

為什麼比特幣的稀缺性很重要？

While inflation is not inherently bad, as it drives the economy when healthy, Bitcoin is usually celebrated as a deflationary asset. While the government can print more dollars, thus decreasing the value of dollars you already hold, Bitcoin is coded in a way that its supply is immutable and limited to 21 million units. 

雖然通貨膨脹本質上並不是壞事，因為它在健康時會推動經濟發展，但比特幣通常被視為通貨緊縮資產。雖然政府可以印製更多的美元，從而降低你已經持有的美元的價值，但比特幣的編碼方式是其供應量是不可變的，並且限量為 2100 萬單位。

As the overall amount of bitcoins will only go down with time as more and more units will ‘stuck’ in the shut wallets forever, it is believed that the value of each unit will only keep on rising.

由於比特幣的總量只會隨著時間的推移而下降，越來越多的單位將永遠「卡在」關閉的錢包中，因此人們相信每個單位的價值只會繼續上漲。

The stock-to-flow model proponents claim that scarcity drives value. However, it’s understood that scarcity is far from being the only or the main value driver. Can you draw a single unit of your own currency and expect it to be the most valued one due to extreme scarcity? Probably not. Given that Bitcoin is already enjoying a high value, its scarcity forces buyers to bid for each unit more. That’s the way halvings drive the BTC price up all the time.

庫存流量模型的支持者聲稱稀缺性驅動價值。然而，據了解，稀缺性遠非唯一或主要的價值驅動因素。你能提取一個單位的本國貨幣，並期望它由於極度稀缺而成為最有價值的貨幣嗎？可能不會。鑑於比特幣已經享有很高的價值，其稀缺性迫使買家對每單位出價更高。這就是減半推動比特幣價格不斷上漲的方式。

Is it possible to remove the supply cap?

供應蓋可以取下嗎？

A three-minute educational video on Bitcoin, released by BlackRock in December 2024, stirred an online discussion over the possibility and implications of the supply hard cap removal.

貝萊德 (BlackRock) 於 2024 年 12 月發布了一段三分鐘的比特幣教育視頻，引發了關於取消供應硬上限的可能性和影響的在線討論。

The removal is not impossible, as the Bitcoin network’s structure has already been edited on various occasions through hard forking. So, if the community working on the Bitcoin improvements votes for making Bitcoin inflationary and makes necessary changes to the Bitcoin architecture–voilà–someday we can see inflationary Bitcoin.

刪除並非不可能，因為比特幣網路的結構已經透過硬分叉在各種場合進行了編輯。因此，如果致力於比特幣改進的社群投票支持讓比特幣通膨，並對比特幣架構做出必要的改變——瞧——有一天我們可以看到通膨的比特幣。

The opponents of this move claim such changes would have turned Bitcoin into something completely different. More than that, they remind us that those who don’t want Bitcoin without a fixed supply can still use the classic version of Satoshi Nakamoto’s brainchild.

此舉的反對者聲稱，這種變化將使比特幣變成完全不同的東西。更重要的是，他們提醒我們，那些不想要沒有固定供應量的比特幣的人仍然可以使用中本聰創意的經典版本。