Sui (SUI) 代币解锁事件：值得关注吗？

我们正在见证 Sui 代币的大幅飙升，但我还不会太兴奋。许多人将 Sui 比作 Sol。然而，Sui 有一个重大问题：代币发行。

The Sui token has seen a massive surge recently, but I wouldn't get too excited just yet.

Sui 代币最近大幅上涨，但我还不会太兴奋。

Many compare Sui to Sol, but Sui has one significant issue: token issuance.

许多人将 Sui 与 Sol 进行比较，但 Sui 有一个重要问题：代币发行。

Here, we see Sui's supply at 10 billion compared to Sol's 585 million.

在这里，我们看到 Sui 的供应量为 100 亿，而 Sol 的供应量为 5.85 亿。

Furthermore, only 2.8 billion of Sui's 10 billion supply is currently unlocked.

此外，Sui 的 100 亿供应量中，目前仅解锁了 28 亿。

In contrast, Sol has 499 million unlocked coins out of 588 million.

相比之下，Sol 在 5.88 亿枚代币中解锁了 4.99 亿枚。

Sol is 85% unlocked, while Sui is only 28.5% unlocked.

Sol 的解锁率为 85%，而 Sui 的解锁率为 28.5%。

The next Sui token unlock will take place on December 3.

下一次 Sui 代币解锁将于 12 月 3 日进行。

After that, we can expect unlocks every month

之后，我们可以期待每个月都会解锁

The unlock will amount to $308 million, based on the current price, which is actually a very large sum.

解锁金额将达到3.08亿美元，按照目前的价格计算，这实际上是一个非常大的数字。

Some projects have such a market capitalization.

有些项目就有这样的市值。

The total investment in the project is $385 million, while one unlock in December alone amounts to $308 million.

该项目总投资为3.85亿美元，仅12月份解锁的一项投资就达3.08亿美元。

Well, let's take a look at whether the token's price dropped in previous months during unlock events.

好吧，我们来看看前几个月解锁事件期间代币价格是否下跌。

How much were people willing to hold onto the token?

有多少人愿意持有该代币？

This is a very important factor in determining how much holders are willing to keep their tokens.

这是决定持有者愿意保留代币多少的一个非常重要的因素。

Or are they simply ready to receive their tokens during the unlock and sell them to you at any price?

或者他们只是准备在解锁期间接收代币并以任何价格出售给您？

I looked at the unlock events from September to November, and the results weren’t very reassuring.

我查看了 9 月到 11 月的解锁事件，结果不太让人放心。

On the unlock day, which happens every month on the 3rd, the tokens were simply dumped onto the market.

在每月 3 日的解锁日，代币被简单地抛售到市场上。

Here is the daily chart.

这是每日图表。

There was also recent news that a trust for Sui has been launched.

最近还有消息称隋的信托已经成立。

However, if you visit the Grayscale website, you'll see that they have launched trusts for many tokens.

但是，如果您访问灰度网站，您会看到他们已经启动了许多代币的信托。

So, there's nothing new about this.

所以，这并不是什么新鲜事。

The question is different: will investors want to enter these trusts knowing that every month there will be a massive token unlock flooding the market?

问题是不同的：投资者是否愿意进入这些信托基金，因为他们知道每个月都会有大量的代币解锁涌入市场？

Conclusion

结论

What do I expect from the Sui project?

我对 Sui 项目有何期望？

Sui is definitely a good project, but its massive uncirculated token supply is hindering its progress.

Sui绝对是一个好项目，但其大量未流通的代币供应阻碍了它的进步。

Moreover, we will also face a bear market during the unlocks.

此外，解锁期间我们还将面临熊市。

Currently, it outperforms many other projects in different areas.

目前，它在不同领域的表现优于许多其他项目。

I’ve seen something similar with Arbitrum.

我在 Arbitrum 上看到过类似的东西。

Remember how much hype there was around Arbitrum?

还记得 Arbitrum 有多少炒作吗？

Its price also rose, but how did it end?

它的价格也上涨了，但结果如何呢？

Arbitrumn is now at the bottom.

Arbitrumn 现在位于底部。

A huge uncirculated token supply is a problem for all L1 projects.

巨大的未流通代币供应是所有 L1 项目的一个问题。

Even Binance mentioned the issues with FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) for such tokens in one of their articles.

甚至 Binance 在他们的一篇文章中也提到了此类代币的 FDV（完全稀释估值）问题。

I remember how last year, around this time, everyone was excited about the Tia project.

我记得去年的这个时候，每个人都对 Tia 项目感到兴奋。

Tia did grow, but its massive supply also dragged the project down, and now everyone has forgotten about it.

Tia确实成长了，但其庞大的供应量也拖累了项目，现在大家都已经忘记了它。

We must also remember that there is fierce competition in the market, and new projects are launched every day.

我们还必须记住，市场竞争非常激烈，每天都有新项目推出。

Not every investor will want to have their money unlocked by someone else.

并非每个投资者都希望自己的资金被其他人解锁。

Wishing everyone successful trading, and most importantly, think with your own head and don't let emotions take over.

祝大家交易成功，最重要的是，用自己的头脑思考，不要让情绪占据主导地位。

Also, if you don’t mind, please leave a like.

另外，如果不介意的话，请点个赞吧。

If this article gets a lot of likes, I might release an article about Bitcoin.

如果这篇文章得到很多喜欢，我可能会发布一篇关于比特币的文章。