Sui (SUI) 代幣解鎖事件：值得關注嗎？

我們正在見證 Sui 代幣的大幅飆升，但我還不會太興奮。許多人將 Sui 比作 Sol。然而，Sui 有一個重大問題：代幣發行。

The Sui token has seen a massive surge recently, but I wouldn't get too excited just yet.

Sui 代幣最近大幅上漲，但我還不會太興奮。

Many compare Sui to Sol, but Sui has one significant issue: token issuance.

許多人將 Sui 與 Sol 進行比較，但 Sui 有一個重要問題：代幣發行。

Here, we see Sui's supply at 10 billion compared to Sol's 585 million.

在這裡，我們看到 Sui 的供應量為 100 億，而 Sol 的供應量為 5.85 億。

Furthermore, only 2.8 billion of Sui's 10 billion supply is currently unlocked.

此外，Sui 的 100 億供應量中目前僅解鎖了 28 億。

In contrast, Sol has 499 million unlocked coins out of 588 million.

相比之下，Sol 在 5.88 億枚代幣中擁有 4.99 億枚未解鎖的代幣。

Sol is 85% unlocked, while Sui is only 28.5% unlocked.

Sol 的解鎖率為 85%，而 Sui 的解鎖率為 28.5%。

The next Sui token unlock will take place on December 3.

下一次 Sui 代幣解鎖將於 12 月 3 日進行。

After that, we can expect unlocks every month

之後，我們可以期待每個月都會解鎖

The unlock will amount to $308 million, based on the current price, which is actually a very large sum.

解鎖金額將達到3.08億美元，以目前的價格計算，這實際上是一個非常大的數字。

Some projects have such a market capitalization.

有些項目就有這樣的市值。

The total investment in the project is $385 million, while one unlock in December alone amounts to $308 million.

該項目總投資為3.85億美元，光是12月解鎖的一項投資就達3.08億美元。

Well, let's take a look at whether the token's price dropped in previous months during unlock events.

好吧，讓我們來看看前幾個月解鎖事件期間代幣價格是否下跌。

How much were people willing to hold onto the token?

有多少人願意持有該代幣？

This is a very important factor in determining how much holders are willing to keep their tokens.

這是決定持有者願意保留代幣多少的一個非常重要的因素。

Or are they simply ready to receive their tokens during the unlock and sell them to you at any price?

或者他們只是準備在解鎖期間接收代幣並以任何價格出售給您？

I looked at the unlock events from September to November, and the results weren’t very reassuring.

我查看了 9 月到 11 月的解鎖事件，結果不太讓人放心。

On the unlock day, which happens every month on the 3rd, the tokens were simply dumped onto the market.

在每月 3 日的解鎖日，代幣被簡單地拋售到市場上。

Here is the daily chart.

這是每日圖表。

There was also recent news that a trust for Sui has been launched.

最近還有消息指出隋的信託已經成立。

However, if you visit the Grayscale website, you'll see that they have launched trusts for many tokens.

但是，如果您訪問灰階網站，您會看到他們已經啟動了許多代幣的信託。

So, there's nothing new about this.

所以，這並不是什麼新鮮事。

The question is different: will investors want to enter these trusts knowing that every month there will be a massive token unlock flooding the market?

問題是不同的：投資者是否願意進入這些信託基金，因為他們知道每個月都會有大量的代幣解鎖湧入市場？

Conclusion

結論

What do I expect from the Sui project?

我對 Sui 專案有何期望？

Sui is definitely a good project, but its massive uncirculated token supply is hindering its progress.

Sui絕對是一個好項目，但其大量未流通的代幣供應阻礙了它的進步。

Moreover, we will also face a bear market during the unlocks.

此外，解鎖期間我們還將面對熊市。

Currently, it outperforms many other projects in different areas.

目前，它在不同領域的表現優於許多其他項目。

I’ve seen something similar with Arbitrum.

我在 Arbitrum 上看到類似的東西。

Remember how much hype there was around Arbitrum?

還記得 Arbitrum 有多少炒作嗎？

Its price also rose, but how did it end?

它的價格也上漲了，但結果如何呢？

Arbitrumn is now at the bottom.

Arbitrumn 現在位於底部。

A huge uncirculated token supply is a problem for all L1 projects.

龐大的未流通代幣供應是所有 L1 項目的問題。

Even Binance mentioned the issues with FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) for such tokens in one of their articles.

甚至 Binance 在他們的一篇文章中也提到了此類代幣的 FDV（完全稀釋估值）問題。

I remember how last year, around this time, everyone was excited about the Tia project.

我記得去年的這個時候，每個人都對 Tia 計畫感到興奮。

Tia did grow, but its massive supply also dragged the project down, and now everyone has forgotten about it.

Tia確實成長了，但其龐大的供應量也拖累了項目，現在大家都已經忘記了它。

We must also remember that there is fierce competition in the market, and new projects are launched every day.

我們還必須記住，市場競爭非常激烈，每天都有新項目推出。

Not every investor will want to have their money unlocked by someone else.

並非每個投資者都希望自己的資金被其他人解鎖。

Wishing everyone successful trading, and most importantly, think with your own head and don't let emotions take over.

祝大家交易成功，最重要的是，用自己的頭腦思考，不要讓情緒主導。

Also, if you don’t mind, please leave a like.

另外，如果不介意的話，請按個讚吧。

If this article gets a lot of likes, I might release an article about Bitcoin.

如果這篇文章得到很多喜歡，我可能會發布一篇關於比特幣的文章。