芯片股大涨，科技股继续展现强势；比特币 (^BTCUSD) 上涨 +5%

标准普尔 500 指数 ($SPX) (SPY) 周二收盘上涨 +1.10%，道琼斯工业指数 ($DOWI) (DIA) 收盘上涨 +0.91%，纳斯达克 100 指数 ($IUXX) (QQQ) 收盘上涨+1.37%。 3 月 E-mini 标准普尔期货 (ESH25) 上涨 +1.04%，3 月 E-mini 纳斯达克期货 (NQH25) 上涨 +1.35%。周二，纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克指数因平安夜假期而于东部时间下午 1 点提早收市。

The S&P March E-mini futures (ESM25) on Monday fell -0.35%, and the Nasdaq March E-mini futures (NQM25) fell -0.30%.

标准普尔 3 月 E-mini 期货（ESM25）周一下跌-0.35%，纳斯达克 3 月 E-mini 期货（NQM25）下跌-0.30%。

The NYSE and Nasdaq on Monday closed early at 1PM Eastern time for the Christmas Eve holiday.

纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克市场周一因平安夜假期而于东部时间下午 1 点提早收市。

Stocks on Monday continued to rally due to strength in chip and tech stocks.  Chip stocks saw continued strength after the Biden administration on Monday announced a trade investigation of Chinese chips, which may pave the way for the incoming Trump administration to slap tariffs on Chinese chips, thus providing trade protection for US chip makers.

由于芯片和科技股走强，周一股市继续上涨。拜登政府周一宣布对中国芯片进行贸易调查后，芯片股持续走强，这可能为即将上任的特朗普政府对中国芯片征收关税铺平道路，从而为美国芯片制造商提供贸易保护。

China may sell a record 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) of special Treasury bonds in 2025 to bolster economic stimulus for its economy, according to a report Monday by Reuters.  That would be sharply higher from 1 trillion yuan of bonds sold this year.  The news that China may boost its economic stimulus measures was supportive of global stocks.

据路透社周一报道，中国可能在 2025 年发行创纪录的 3 万亿元人民币（4110 亿美元）特别国债，以刺激经济。这将大幅高于今年发行的 1 万亿元债券。中国可能加大经济刺激措施的消息支撑了全球股市。

Stocks were undercut by Monday's moderate -6.4 bp rise in the 10-year T-note yield, which hit its highest level since May 2023. 

周一 10 年期国债收益率温和上涨 -6.4 个基点，触及 2023 年 5 月以来的最高水平，打压股市。

The Philadelphia Fed's Dec non-manufacturing activity index fell by -0.1 point to -6.0 from -5.9 in November, weaker than expectations for an increase to -2.4.

费城联储 12 月非制造业活动指数从 11 月的-5.9 下降-0.1 点至-6.0，弱于预期的上升至-2.4。

The Richmond Fed's Dec manufacturing index rose +4 points to -10 from November's -14, which was in line with market expectations.

里士满联储12月制造业指数从11月的-14上升+4点至-10，符合市场预期。

The markets are discounting the chances at 9% for a -25 bp rate cut at the January 28-29 FOMC meeting.

市场对 1 月 28 日至 29 日 FOMC 会议上降息 -25 个基点的可能性进行了 9% 的折扣。

Overseas stock markets on Monday were mixed.  The Euro Stoxx 50 on Monday fell -0.30%, extending its losing streak to 3 sessions.  China's Shanghai Composite Index closed up +1.26%, snapping a 2-session losing streak.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +1.19%.

周一海外股市涨跌互现。欧洲斯托克 50 指数周一下跌-0.30%，连续三个交易日下跌。中国上证综合指数收盘上涨1.26%，结束了连续两个交易日的下跌。日本日经指数 225 收盘上涨 +1.19%。

Interest Rates

利率

March 10-year T-notes (ZNM25) on Monday edged to a new 7-month low but then recovered and ended the day down -1.5 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield rose +0.2 bp to 4.589%, and edged to a new 7-month high.  T-note prices early Monday saw continued weakness after Congress last Friday averted a US government shutdown that would have been negative for the US economy.  T-note prices were also undercut by supply overhang as the Treasury on Monday sold $70 billion of 5-year T-notes.  The Treasury will sell $44 billion of 7-year T-notes on Thursday.  T-notes found some support Monday from the weak Philadelphia Fed report. 

3 月 10 年期国债 (ZNM25) 周一小幅触及 7 个月新低，但随后回升，收盘下跌 -1.5 个基点。 10年期国债收益率上涨0.2个基点至4.589%，并创7个月新高。国会上周五避免了对美国经济不利的美国政府关门，周一早盘国债价格持续疲软。 由于美国财政部周一出售了 700 亿美元的 5 年期国债，国债价格也因供应过剩而受到削弱。财政部将于周四出售 440 亿美元的 7 年期国债。周一国债从疲软的费城联储报告中获得了一些支撑。

The German markets were closed Monday.  The 10-year German bund yield on Friday fell -0.8 bp to 2.323%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield Monday fell -0.8 bp to 4.575%.

德国市场周一休市。周五德国 10 年期国债收益率下跌-0.8 个基点至 2.323%。周一英国 10 年期国债收益率下跌-0.8 个基点至 4.575%。

Swaps are discounting the chances at 100% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its January 30 policy meeting and at 8% for a -50 bp rate cut at that meeting.

掉期对欧洲央行在 1 月 30 日政策会议上降息 -25 个基点的可能性进行了 100% 的折现，对此次会议上降息 -50 个基点的可能性进行了 8% 的折现。

US Stock Movers

美国股票走势

The Magnificent 7 stocks showed strength, led by Tesla (TSLA), with a gain of more than +7%.  Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), and Apple (AAPL) showed gains of more than +1%.

以特斯拉 (TSLA) 为首的 Magnificent 7 股表现强劲，涨幅超过 7%。亚马逊 (AMZN)、Meta Platforms (META) 和苹果 (AAPL) 的涨幅均超过 1%。

Chip stocks were leaders in the Nasdaq 100 index again Monday. Arm Holdings (ARM) and Broadcom (AVGO) showed gains of more than +3%.  Marvel Technology (MRVL), ON Semiconductor (ON), Analog Devices (ADI), GlobalFoundries (GFS), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Texas Instruments (TXN), and Microchip Technology (MCHP) all showed gains of more than +1%.

周一，芯片股再次成为纳斯达克 100 指数的领头羊。 Arm Holdings (ARM) 和 Broadcom (AVGO) 的涨幅均超过 3%。 Marvel Technology (MRVL)、ON Semiconductor (ON)、Analog Devices (ADI)、GlobalFoundries (GFS)、Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)、Texas Instruments (TXN) 和 Microchip Technology (MCHP) 的涨幅均超过 +1 %。

Crypto-stocks rallied due to Monday's rally of more than +5% in bitcoin (^BTCUSD).  Microstrategy (MSTR) rallied more than +7% and topped the Nasdaq 100 leaderboard. Riot Platforms (RIOT) rose +8%, and Coinbase (COIN) rose more than +4%.

由于周一比特币 (^BTCUSD) 上涨超过 5%，加密货币股票上涨。 Microstrategy (MSTR) 上涨超过 7%，在纳斯达克 100 指数排行榜上名列前茅。 Riot Platforms (RIOT) 上涨 +8%，Coinbase (COIN) 上涨超过 +4%。

American Airlines (AAL) fell -5.37% in pre-opening trade after it early Monday morning grounded all its flights nationwide for about an hour due to a software glitch.  The ground halt was lifted at about 7 AM Eastern time.

美国航空 (AAL) 在周一凌晨因软件故障而将其全国所有航班停飞约一个小时后，开盘前交易中下跌了-5.37%。东部时间上午 7 点左右，地面停止被解除。

Starbucks (SBUX) fell -0.26% after its workers union said that a barista strike would spread to more than 300 cafes.

星巴克(SBUX)股价下跌-0.26%，此前其工会表示咖啡师罢工将蔓延至300多家咖啡馆。