晶片股大漲，科技股持續展現強勢；比特幣 (^BTCUSD) 上漲 +5%

標準普爾 500 指數 ($SPX) (SPY) 週二收盤上漲 +1.10%，道瓊工業指數 ($DOWI) (DIA) 收盤上漲 +0.91%，納斯達克 100 指數 ($IUXX) (QQQ) 收盤上漲+ 1.37%。 3 月 E-mini 標準普爾期貨 (ESH25) 上漲 +1.04%，3 月 E-mini 納斯達剋期貨 (NQH25) 上漲 +1.35%。週二，紐約證券交易所和納斯達克指數因平安夜假期而於東部時間下午 1 點提早收市。

The S&P March E-mini futures (ESM25) on Monday fell -0.35%, and the Nasdaq March E-mini futures (NQM25) fell -0.30%.

標準普爾 3 月 E-mini 期貨（ESM25）週一下跌-0.35%，納斯達克 3 月 E-mini 期貨（NQM25）下跌-0.30%。

The NYSE and Nasdaq on Monday closed early at 1PM Eastern time for the Christmas Eve holiday.

紐約證券交易所和納斯達克市場週一因平安夜假期而於東部時間下午 1 點提早收市。

Stocks on Monday continued to rally due to strength in chip and tech stocks.  Chip stocks saw continued strength after the Biden administration on Monday announced a trade investigation of Chinese chips, which may pave the way for the incoming Trump administration to slap tariffs on Chinese chips, thus providing trade protection for US chip makers.

由於晶片和科技股走強，週一股市繼續上漲。拜登政府週一宣布對中國晶片進行貿易調查後，晶片股持續走強，這可能為即將上任的川普政府對中國晶片徵收關稅鋪平道路，從而為美國晶片製造商提供貿易保護。

China may sell a record 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) of special Treasury bonds in 2025 to bolster economic stimulus for its economy, according to a report Monday by Reuters.  That would be sharply higher from 1 trillion yuan of bonds sold this year.  The news that China may boost its economic stimulus measures was supportive of global stocks.

根據路透社週一報道，中國可能在 2025 年發行創紀錄的 3 兆元（4,110 億美元）特別國債，以刺激經濟。這將大幅高於今年發行的 1 兆元債券。中國可能加大經濟刺激措施的消息支撐了全球股市。

Stocks were undercut by Monday's moderate -6.4 bp rise in the 10-year T-note yield, which hit its highest level since May 2023. 

週一 10 年期公債殖利率溫和上漲 -6.4 個基點，觸及 2023 年 5 月以來的最高水平，打壓股市。

The Philadelphia Fed's Dec non-manufacturing activity index fell by -0.1 point to -6.0 from -5.9 in November, weaker than expectations for an increase to -2.4.

費城聯邦儲備銀行 12 月非製造業活動指數從 11 月的-5.9 下降-0.1 點至-6.0，弱於預期的上升至-2.4。

The Richmond Fed's Dec manufacturing index rose +4 points to -10 from November's -14, which was in line with market expectations.

里士滿聯邦儲備銀行12月製造業指數從11月的-14上升+4點至-10，符合市場預期。

The markets are discounting the chances at 9% for a -25 bp rate cut at the January 28-29 FOMC meeting.

市場對 1 月 28 日至 29 日 FOMC 會議上降息 -25 個基點的可能性進行了 9% 的折扣。

Overseas stock markets on Monday were mixed.  The Euro Stoxx 50 on Monday fell -0.30%, extending its losing streak to 3 sessions.  China's Shanghai Composite Index closed up +1.26%, snapping a 2-session losing streak.  Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed up +1.19%.

週一海外股市漲跌互現。歐洲斯托克 50 指數週一下跌-0.30%，連續三個交易日下跌。中國上證綜合指數收盤上漲1.26%，結束了連續兩個交易日的下跌。日本日經指數 225 收盤上漲 +1.19%。

Interest Rates

利率

March 10-year T-notes (ZNM25) on Monday edged to a new 7-month low but then recovered and ended the day down -1.5 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield rose +0.2 bp to 4.589%, and edged to a new 7-month high.  T-note prices early Monday saw continued weakness after Congress last Friday averted a US government shutdown that would have been negative for the US economy.  T-note prices were also undercut by supply overhang as the Treasury on Monday sold $70 billion of 5-year T-notes.  The Treasury will sell $44 billion of 7-year T-notes on Thursday.  T-notes found some support Monday from the weak Philadelphia Fed report. 

3 月 10 年期公債 (ZNM25) 週一小幅觸及 7 個月新低，但隨後回升，收盤下跌 -1.5 個基點。 10年期公債殖利率上漲0.2個基點至4.589%，創7個月新高。國會上週五避免了對美國經濟不利的美國政府關門，週一早盤公債價格持續疲軟。 由於美國財政部週一出售了 700 億美元的 5 年期國債，國債價格也因供應過剩而受到削弱。財政部將於週四出售 440 億美元的 7 年期公債。週一國債從疲軟的費城聯邦儲備銀行報告中獲得了一些支撐。

The German markets were closed Monday.  The 10-year German bund yield on Friday fell -0.8 bp to 2.323%.  The 10-year UK gilt yield Monday fell -0.8 bp to 4.575%.

德國市場週一休市。週五德國 10 年期公債殖利率下跌-0.8 個基點至 2.323%。週一英國 10 年期公債殖利率下跌-0.8 個基點至 4.575%。

Swaps are discounting the chances at 100% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its January 30 policy meeting and at 8% for a -50 bp rate cut at that meeting.

掉期對歐洲央行在 1 月 30 日政策會議上降息 -25 個基點的可能性進行了 100% 的折現，對此次會議上降息 -50 個基點的可能性進行了 8% 的折現。

US Stock Movers

美國股票走勢

The Magnificent 7 stocks showed strength, led by Tesla (TSLA), with a gain of more than +7%.  Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), and Apple (AAPL) showed gains of more than +1%.

以特斯拉 (TSLA) 為首的 Magnificent 7 股表現強勁，漲幅超過 7%。亞馬遜 (AMZN)、Meta Platforms (META) 和蘋果 (AAPL) 的漲幅均超過 1%。

Chip stocks were leaders in the Nasdaq 100 index again Monday. Arm Holdings (ARM) and Broadcom (AVGO) showed gains of more than +3%.  Marvel Technology (MRVL), ON Semiconductor (ON), Analog Devices (ADI), GlobalFoundries (GFS), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Texas Instruments (TXN), and Microchip Technology (MCHP) all showed gains of more than +1%.

週一，晶片股再次成為納斯達克 100 指數的領頭羊。 Arm Holdings (ARM) 和 Broadcom (AVGO) 的漲幅均超過 3%。 Marvel Technology (MRVL)、ON Semiconductor (ON)、Analog Devices (ADI)、GlobalFoundries (GFS)、Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)、Texas Instruments (TXN) 和 Microchip Technology (MCHP) 的漲幅均超過 +1 %。

Crypto-stocks rallied due to Monday's rally of more than +5% in bitcoin (^BTCUSD).  Microstrategy (MSTR) rallied more than +7% and topped the Nasdaq 100 leaderboard. Riot Platforms (RIOT) rose +8%, and Coinbase (COIN) rose more than +4%.

由於週一比特幣 (^BTCUSD) 漲幅超過 5%，加密貨幣股票上漲。 Microstrategy (MSTR) 上漲超過 7%，在納斯達克 100 指數排行榜上名列前茅。 Riot Platforms (RIOT) 上漲 +8%，Coinbase (COIN) 上漲超過 +4%。

American Airlines (AAL) fell -5.37% in pre-opening trade after it early Monday morning grounded all its flights nationwide for about an hour due to a software glitch.  The ground halt was lifted at about 7 AM Eastern time.

美國航空 (AAL) 在周一凌晨因軟體故障而將其全國所有航班停飛約一個小時後，開盤前交易中下跌了-5.37%。東部時間上午 7 點左右，地面停止解除。

Starbucks (SBUX) fell -0.26% after its workers union said that a barista strike would spread to more than 300 cafes.

星巴克(SBUX)股價下跌-0.26%，此前其工會表示咖啡師罷工將蔓延至300多家咖啡館。