红色的美国股票市场：市场重复其不良草图

在华尔街的过道中，气氛不再是节日。

The festive atmosphere in the aisles of Wall Street seems to have vanished. For a few weeks now, the American stock market has been showing symptoms of a relapse that we thought forgotten. The specter of a crash — in the style of 2000 or 2008 — is again resurfacing. And while analysts are pulling out their old survival manuals, others see it as an opportunity for a big cleanup. But what does history really tell us? And above all, how do we read the signs in this changing economic jungle?

华尔街过道中的节日气氛似乎消失了。几周来，美国股市一直表现出我们认为遗忘的复发症状。崩溃的幽灵（以2000或2008年的风格）再次浮出水面。尽管分析师正在删除其旧生存手册，但其他人则将其视为进行大量清理的机会。但是历史真的告诉我们什么？最重要的是，我们如何阅读这种不断变化的经济丛林中的标志？

The US stock market in the red: markets repeat their bad sketch

红色的美国股票市场：市场重复其不良草图

Indeed, the American stock market loves to trip over the carpet of overvaluation. In 2000, the Nasdaq (now aligned with Bitcoin) reached 5,000 points, before crashing down on a 78% drop. A quarter of a century later, are we seeing a repeat? In any case, it looks like it.

确实，美国股市喜欢浏览高估地毯。 2000年，纳斯达克（现已与比特币对齐）达到5,000点，然后下降了78％。四分之一世纪后，我们看到重复了吗？无论如何，它看起来像它。

The Nasdaq is already down 13% in a month, like a foretaste of an indigestible dish.

纳斯达克一个月内已经下跌了13％，例如预言不可消化的菜。

Back then, we invested in companies whose only tangible asset was a PowerPoint. Today, it’s artificial intelligences that are sparking euphoria, in the form of Nvidia and its tech cousins. History repeats itself, but with more printed circuits.

那时，我们投资于唯一有形资产的公司。如今，人工智能以Nvidia及其技术堂兄的形式激发了欣快感。历史重演，但带有更多印刷电路。

As Jim Osman says: ” You haven’ຈະ ເບິ່ງ ເປັນ in עוד “. He speaks from experience: the Nasdaq, the S&P 500, and the Dow Jones all crashed back then. And this time? Nothing guarantees that the scenario will be less violent.

正如吉姆·奥斯曼（Jim Osman）所说：“您尚未在ע信中”。他从经验中讲话：纳斯达克，标准普尔500指数，道琼斯琼斯当时都坠毁。这次？没有什么能保证这种情况会减少暴力。

And you, are you ready for a HD rerun of the 2000 crash?

而且，您准备好进行2000年崩溃的高清重新运行了吗？

The United States on the edge of the abyss… or just a brief dizziness?

美国在深渊边缘……还是短暂的头晕？

On the other side of the Atlantic, the United States moves like somnambulists on a thread of debt and illusions. The American economy, on paper, seems robust, but the foundations are cracking. Proof? The famous S&P 500 has slipped over 10% recently, flirting with correction like a shy teenager with disaster.

在大西洋的另一侧，美国像somnambulists一样在债务和幻想中移动。从表面上看，美国经济似乎很健壮，但基础正在破裂。证明？著名的标准普尔500标准普尔（S＆P 500）最近在10％以上滑倒了，像害羞的少年一样，通过更正调情。

The profit margins of American companies have reached unprecedented levels: over 9%, far above the historical norm (between 3.8% and 7.2%). It’s no longer an economy, it’s a trampoline. And beware of the landing!

美国公司的利润率已经达到了前所未有的水平：超过9％，远高于历史规范（在3.8％至7.2％之间）。它不再是经济，而是蹦床。并提防着陆！

A simple “reversion to the mean” — returning to the average, as professionals say — could plunge profits by 20%, or even more.

一个简单的“恢复平均值”（正如专业人士所说，恢复到平均水平）可能会使利润下降20％，甚至更多。

Robert Kiyosaki doesn’t mince his words:

罗伯特·基亚萨基（Robert Kiyosaki）并没有削弱他的话：

This crash will be bigger than that of 1929.

这次崩溃将比1929年更大。

Just that. But don’t panic! According to him, you should “stay stoic, keep your eyes open… and buy when everyone is fleeing “.

就是这样。但是不要惊慌！据他说，您应该“保持坚忍，保持眼睛睁开……并在每个人逃离时购买”。

Should we tremble or break out the checkbook?

我们应该颤抖还是打破支票簿？

The American stock market: bubble in formation or just a hangover?

美国股票市场：形成泡沫还是只是宿醉？

As investors try to keep a cool head, one question remains: are we witnessing the bursting of a new bubble or a healthy correction? The indicators are as reassuring as a lace parachute. Some talk about “bull traps”, those false recoveries that precede the real fall.

当投资者试图保持一个凉爽的问题时，还有一个问题：我们是否正在目睹新的泡沫或健康纠正的爆发？指标像蕾丝降落伞一样令人放心。有些人谈论“公牛陷阱”，那些在真正跌倒之前的错误恢复。

Remember: in 2001, after the dot-com boom, the market had recovered 21%… before losing 32% again. A repeat in 2008. And today? The valuations are once again in tension. The forward P/E (price-to-earnings ratio) is dangerously approaching 23x, a level that preceded the last two major corrections.

请记住：在2001年，在互联网繁荣之后，市场恢复了21％…，然后再次损失了32％。在2008年重复。今天？估值再次处于紧张状态。远期p/e（价值比率）危险地接近23倍，这是最后两个重大校正之前的水平。

And yet, not all is lost. Artificial intelligence is not just a flash in the pan, as some analysts remind us. The problem is not the technology, but the exuberance of investors, that old demon of Wall Street.

但是，并非所有人都丢失了。正如一些分析师提醒我们的那样，人工智能不仅是锅中的闪光灯。问题不是技术，而是投资者的旺盛，那是华尔街的旧恶魔。

So, is this stock market self-destructing out of enthusiasm?

那么，这个股票市场是否出于热情而产生自我毁灭？

In summary, the misfortunes of some bring happiness to others: while the American stock market ecosystem, symbolized by Wall Street, is in a dark place now, it should be noted that it’s Europe that is cashing in.

总而言之，有些人的不幸给其他人带来了幸福：虽然以华尔街为象征的美国股票市场生态系统现在处在一个黑暗的地方，但应注意的是，欧洲正在兑现。

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