紅色的美國股票市場：市場重複其不良草圖

在華爾街的過道中，氣氛不再是節日。

The festive atmosphere in the aisles of Wall Street seems to have vanished. For a few weeks now, the American stock market has been showing symptoms of a relapse that we thought forgotten. The specter of a crash — in the style of 2000 or 2008 — is again resurfacing. And while analysts are pulling out their old survival manuals, others see it as an opportunity for a big cleanup. But what does history really tell us? And above all, how do we read the signs in this changing economic jungle?

華爾街過道中的節日氣氛似乎消失了。幾週來，美國股市一直表現出我們認為遺忘的複發症狀。崩潰的幽靈（以2000或2008年的風格）再次浮出水面。儘管分析師正在刪除其舊生存手冊，但其他人則將其視為進行大量清理的機會。但是歷史真的告訴我們什麼？最重要的是，我們如何閱讀這種不斷變化的經濟叢林中的標誌？

The US stock market in the red: markets repeat their bad sketch

紅色的美國股票市場：市場重複其不良草圖

Indeed, the American stock market loves to trip over the carpet of overvaluation. In 2000, the Nasdaq (now aligned with Bitcoin) reached 5,000 points, before crashing down on a 78% drop. A quarter of a century later, are we seeing a repeat? In any case, it looks like it.

確實，美國股市喜歡瀏覽高估地毯。 2000年，納斯達克（現已與比特幣對齊）達到5,000點，然後下降了78％。四分之一世紀後，我們看到重複了嗎？無論如何，它看起來像它。

The Nasdaq is already down 13% in a month, like a foretaste of an indigestible dish.

納斯達克一個月內已經下跌了13％，例如預言不可消化的菜。

Back then, we invested in companies whose only tangible asset was a PowerPoint. Today, it’s artificial intelligences that are sparking euphoria, in the form of Nvidia and its tech cousins. History repeats itself, but with more printed circuits.

那時，我們投資於唯一有形資產的公司。如今，人工智能以Nvidia及其技術堂兄的形式激發了欣快感。歷史重演，但帶有更多印刷電路。

As Jim Osman says: ” You haven’ຈະ ເບິ່ງ ເປັນ in עוד “. He speaks from experience: the Nasdaq, the S&P 500, and the Dow Jones all crashed back then. And this time? Nothing guarantees that the scenario will be less violent.

正如吉姆·奧斯曼（Jim Osman）所說：“您尚未在ע信中”。他從經驗中講話：納斯達克，標準普爾500指數，道瓊斯瓊斯當時都墜毀。這次？沒有什麼能保證這種情況會減少暴力。

And you, are you ready for a HD rerun of the 2000 crash?

而且，您準備好進行2000年崩潰的高清重新運行了嗎？

The United States on the edge of the abyss… or just a brief dizziness?

美國在深淵邊緣……還是短暫的頭暈？

On the other side of the Atlantic, the United States moves like somnambulists on a thread of debt and illusions. The American economy, on paper, seems robust, but the foundations are cracking. Proof? The famous S&P 500 has slipped over 10% recently, flirting with correction like a shy teenager with disaster.

在大西洋的另一側，美國像somnambulists一樣在債務和幻想中移動。從表面上看，美國經濟似乎很健壯，但基礎正在破裂。證明？著名的標準普爾500標準普爾（S＆P 500）最近在10％以上滑倒了，像害羞的少年一樣，通過更正調情。

The profit margins of American companies have reached unprecedented levels: over 9%, far above the historical norm (between 3.8% and 7.2%). It’s no longer an economy, it’s a trampoline. And beware of the landing!

美國公司的利潤率已經達到了前所未有的水平：超過9％，遠高於歷史規範（在3.8％至7.2％之間）。它不再是經濟，而是蹦床。並提防著陸！

A simple “reversion to the mean” — returning to the average, as professionals say — could plunge profits by 20%, or even more.

一個簡單的“恢復平均值”（正如專業人士所說，恢復到平均水平）可能會使利潤下降20％，甚至更多。

Robert Kiyosaki doesn’t mince his words:

羅伯特·基亞薩基（Robert Kiyosaki）並沒有削弱他的話：

This crash will be bigger than that of 1929.

這次崩潰將比1929年更大。

Just that. But don’t panic! According to him, you should “stay stoic, keep your eyes open… and buy when everyone is fleeing “.

就是這樣。但是不要驚慌！據他說，您應該“保持堅忍，保持眼睛睜開……並在每個人逃離時購買”。

Should we tremble or break out the checkbook?

我們應該顫抖還是打破支票簿？

The American stock market: bubble in formation or just a hangover?

美國股票市場：形成泡沫還是只是宿醉？

As investors try to keep a cool head, one question remains: are we witnessing the bursting of a new bubble or a healthy correction? The indicators are as reassuring as a lace parachute. Some talk about “bull traps”, those false recoveries that precede the real fall.

當投資者試圖保持一個涼爽的問題時，還有一個問題：我們是否正在目睹新的泡沫或健康糾正的爆發？指標像蕾絲降落傘一樣令人放心。有些人談論“公牛陷阱”，那些在真正跌倒之前的錯誤恢復。

Remember: in 2001, after the dot-com boom, the market had recovered 21%… before losing 32% again. A repeat in 2008. And today? The valuations are once again in tension. The forward P/E (price-to-earnings ratio) is dangerously approaching 23x, a level that preceded the last two major corrections.

請記住：在2001年，在互聯網繁榮之後，市場恢復了21％…，然後再次損失了32％。在2008年重複。今天？估值再次處於緊張狀態。遠期p/e（價值比率）危險地接近23倍，這是最後兩個重大校正之前的水平。

And yet, not all is lost. Artificial intelligence is not just a flash in the pan, as some analysts remind us. The problem is not the technology, but the exuberance of investors, that old demon of Wall Street.

但是，並非所有人都丟失了。正如一些分析師提醒我們的那樣，人工智能不僅是鍋中的閃光燈。問題不是技術，而是投資者的旺盛，那是華爾街的舊惡魔。

So, is this stock market self-destructing out of enthusiasm?

那麼，這個股票市場是否出於熱情而產生自我毀滅？

In summary, the misfortunes of some bring happiness to others: while the American stock market ecosystem, symbolized by Wall Street, is in a dark place now, it should be noted that it’s Europe that is cashing in.

總而言之，有些人的不幸給其他人帶來了幸福：雖然以華爾街為像徵的美國股票市場生態系統現在處在一個黑暗的地方，但應注意的是，歐洲正在兌現。

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