社会预测市场流派相信 Len Sassaman 是比特币的神秘创造者中本聪

截至撰写本文时，萨萨曼的胜算是 26%，因为密码学家和隐私冠军成为该平台的新宠。

Social prediction market platform users believe late technologist Len Sassaman might be Bitcoin's mysterious creator Satoshi Nakamoto, with estimates on the play money-powered platform fluctuating wildly.

社交预测市场平台用户认为已故技术专家 Len Sassaman 可能是比特币的神秘创造者中本聪，而对这个虚拟货币驱动的平台的估计波动很大。

At the time of writing, Sassaman’s odds are at 26%, making the cryptographer and privacy champion the platform’s new favorite.

截至撰写本文时，Sassaman 的胜算为 26%，这使得这位密码学家和隐私捍卫者​​成为该平台的新宠。

However, just a few hours ago, the odds were in favor of Peter Todd, the Bitcoin Core engineer who was identified as Satoshi in the recent HBO documentary “Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery.” Todd has categorically denied these claims.

然而，就在几个小时前，形势对比特币核心工程师 Peter Todd 有利，他在最近的 HBO 纪录片《货币电子：比特币之谜》中被确认为中本聪。托德断然否认了这些说法。

Sassasman's odds reached an all-time high of 46% when the trailer of the documentary was released in the first week of October. This was also the time when punters on cryptocurrency-based Polymarket bet heavily in favor of him.

当纪录片预告片于 10 月第一周发布时，萨萨斯曼的胜算达到了历史最高的 46%。这也是基于加密货币的 Polymarket 的投注者在他身上下了重注的时候。

Meanwhile, Todd's odds stood at 71% on Oct. 14, before nearly halving five days later, and stood at 11% at the last check.

与此同时，托德的赔率在 10 月 14 日为 71%，五天后几乎减半，最后一次检查时为 11%。

A user, John Vandivier, while replying to an X post by economist Robin Hanson, highlighted how estimates on the platform aren't stable, with odds shifting in favor of Sassasman from Todd in no time.

用户约翰·范迪维尔 (John Vandivier) 在回复经济学家罗宾·汉森 (Robin Hanson) 的 X 帖子时强调，该平台上的估算并不稳定，赔率很快就从托德 (Todd) 转向萨萨斯曼 (Sassasman)。

odds halved in the past 24 hours, i don't think estimates are stable

过去 24 小时内赔率减半，我认为估计值不稳定

curious how this would resolve anyway.

无论如何，好奇这将如何解决。

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