社會預測市場流派相信 Len Sassaman 是比特幣的神秘創造者中本聰

截至撰寫本文時，薩薩曼的勝算是 26%，因為密碼學家和隱私冠軍成為該平台的新寵。

Social prediction market platform users believe late technologist Len Sassaman might be Bitcoin's mysterious creator Satoshi Nakamoto, with estimates on the play money-powered platform fluctuating wildly.

社交預測市場平台用戶認為已故技術專家 Len Sassaman 可能是比特幣的神秘創造者中本聰，而對這個虛擬貨幣驅動的平台的估計波動很大。

At the time of writing, Sassaman’s odds are at 26%, making the cryptographer and privacy champion the platform’s new favorite.

截至撰寫本文時，Sassaman 的勝算為 26%，這使得這位密碼學家和隱私捍衛者成為該平台的新寵。

However, just a few hours ago, the odds were in favor of Peter Todd, the Bitcoin Core engineer who was identified as Satoshi in the recent HBO documentary “Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery.” Todd has categorically denied these claims.

然而，就在幾個小時前，情況對比特幣核心工程師 Peter Todd 有利，他在最近的 HBO 紀錄片《貨幣電子：比特幣之謎》中被確認為中本聰。托德斷然否認了這些說法。

Sassasman's odds reached an all-time high of 46% when the trailer of the documentary was released in the first week of October. This was also the time when punters on cryptocurrency-based Polymarket bet heavily in favor of him.

當紀錄片預告片於 10 月第一周發佈時，薩薩斯曼的勝算達到了歷史最高的 46%。這也是基於加密貨幣的 Polymarket 的投注者大力支持他的時候。

Meanwhile, Todd's odds stood at 71% on Oct. 14, before nearly halving five days later, and stood at 11% at the last check.

與此同時，托德的賠率在 10 月 14 日為 71%，五天後幾乎減半，最後一次檢查時為 11%。

A user, John Vandivier, while replying to an X post by economist Robin Hanson, highlighted how estimates on the platform aren't stable, with odds shifting in favor of Sassasman from Todd in no time.

用戶約翰·範迪維爾(John Vandivier) 在回覆經濟學家羅賓·漢森(Robin Hanson) 的X 帖子時強調，該平台上的估算並不穩定，賠率很快就從托德(Todd)轉向薩薩斯曼(Sassasman)。

odds halved in the past 24 hours, i don't think estimates are stable

過去 24 小時內賠率減半，我認為估計值不穩定

curious how this would resolve anyway.

無論如何，好奇這將如何解決。

Photo via Shutterstock

照片取自 Shutterstock