Social Prediction Market Manifold Believes Len Sassaman to Be Bitcoin's Mysterious Creator Satoshi Nakamoto

At the time of writing, Sassaman’s odds were 26%, as the cryptographer and privacy champion emerged as the platform’s new favorite.

Social prediction market platform users believe late technologist Len Sassaman might be Bitcoin's mysterious creator Satoshi Nakamoto, with estimates on the play money-powered platform fluctuating wildly.

At the time of writing, Sassaman’s odds are at 26%, making the cryptographer and privacy champion the platform’s new favorite.

However, just a few hours ago, the odds were in favor of Peter Todd, the Bitcoin Core engineer who was identified as Satoshi in the recent HBO documentary “Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery.” Todd has categorically denied these claims.

Sassasman's odds reached an all-time high of 46% when the trailer of the documentary was released in the first week of October. This was also the time when punters on cryptocurrency-based Polymarket bet heavily in favor of him.

Meanwhile, Todd's odds stood at 71% on Oct. 14, before nearly halving five days later, and stood at 11% at the last check.

A user, John Vandivier, while replying to an X post by economist Robin Hanson, highlighted how estimates on the platform aren't stable, with odds shifting in favor of Sassasman from Todd in no time.

odds halved in the past 24 hours, i don't think estimates are stable

curious how this would resolve anyway.

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