蛇年：CLSA预测比特币（BTC）和Ether（ETH）市场绩效

当东亚准备关闭Lunar新年假期，并朝着蛇年的身份看，现在该回顾比特币（BTC）和Coindesk 20（CD20）（CD20）在《龙之年》中的表现了。

As East Asia prepares to shut down for the Lunar New Year holiday and looks towards the Year of the Snake, let’s take a moment to look back at bitcoin (BTC) and the CoinDesk 20 (CD20)’s performance during the Year of the Dragon.

当东亚准备关闭Lunar新年假期，并朝着蛇年望去，让我们花点时间回顾比特币（BTC）和Coindesk 20（CD20）（CD20）在《龙之年》中的表演。

Hong Kong-based brokerage CLSA has an annual tradition of forecasting the market’s performance in the coming year based on the lunar cycle. With a few minor tweaks, it’s as applicable to crypto as it is to traditional markets.

总部位于香港的经纪公司CLSA具有年度传统，即根据月球周期在来年预测市场的业绩。经过一些小调整，它适用于加密货币，就像传统市场一样。

Looking back at last year, the market sorcerers were spot on. Bitcoin is up 137%, while the CoinDesk 20 (CD20), an index tracking the largest digital assets, is up 128% in the last year. This crypto rally is largely thanks to the election of U.S. President Donald Trump last November, which lined up with stargazers' predictions of volatility, then a rally, in the second half of the year.

回顾去年，市场巫师很重要。比特币增长了137％，而Coindesk 20（CD20）是跟踪最大数字资产的指数，在去年增长了128％。这次加密集会在很大程度上要归功于去年11月美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的选举，后者与观星者对波动性的预测有关，然后是下半年的集会。

The only area where market forecasters missed the mark last year was ether’s (ETH) performance. Citing the then-anticipated ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the Dencun upgrade to the Ethereum protocol, analysts hoped the dragon energy would ignite the market’s second largest digital asset.

去年市场预报员唯一错过了这一成绩的领域是Ether（ETH）的表现。分析师援引当时期待的以太交易所交易贸易资金（ETF）和Dencun升级，分析师希望Dragon Energy能够点燃市场的第二大数字资产。

But that failed to materialize, and ETH is only up 35% over the last year as it struggled to keep up to the market’s gains.

但这未能实现，ETH在去年的努力努力达到市场的增长时，ETH仅比去年增长了35％。

Now, on to the Year of the Snake. CLSA says the market is bound for some unpredictable twists as assets – both traditional and crypto – make their way through the lunar months.

现在，到蛇年。 CLSA说，市场受到一些不可预测的曲折的限制，因为传统和加密货币的资产 - 在月球月份都陷入困境。

The year begins with cautious optimism, as liquidity-driven modest gains mirror the Rough Green Snake climbing into trees for a vantage point.

这一年始于谨慎的乐观，因为流动性驱动的谦虚的收益反映了粗糙的绿色蛇爬入树木中，成为有利位置。

However, youthful volatility, akin to the Garter Snake testing its limits, brings temporary falls in early spring. By mid-year, the fiery energy of the Brown Tree Snake suggests a potential surge, lifting markets to heights not seen in a long time.

但是，年轻的波动性，类似于吊蛇测试其极限，在早春造成了暂时的跌倒。到年中，棕色树蛇的烈性能量表明了潜在的激增，将市场提升到很长一段时间以来没有看到的高度。

Summer stagnates, according to the stars, autumn brings minor setbacks, but the year ends with renewed momentum and a steady rise, highlighting crypto's resilience and adaptability in a volatile market.

据明星称，夏季停滞不前，秋天带来了轻微的挫折，但这一年以新的动力和稳定的上升而告终，突出了加密货币在动荡的市场中的韧性和适应性。

Of course, CLSA also reminds readers to seek professional advice, not the guidance of the stars, before investing, and their market predictions based on heavenly guidance don’t count as a research report.

当然，CLSA还提醒读者在投资之前寻求专业建议，而不是明星的指导，而基于天上指导的市场预测不算是研究报告。