蛇年：CLSA預測比特幣（BTC）和Ether（ETH）市場績效

當東亞準備關閉Lunar新年假期，並朝著蛇年的身份看，現在該回顧比特幣（BTC）和Coindesk 20（CD20）（CD20）在《龍之年》中的表現了。

As East Asia prepares to shut down for the Lunar New Year holiday and looks towards the Year of the Snake, let’s take a moment to look back at bitcoin (BTC) and the CoinDesk 20 (CD20)’s performance during the Year of the Dragon.

當東亞準備關閉Lunar新年假期，並朝著蛇年望去，讓我們花點時間回顧比特幣（BTC）和Coindesk 20（CD20）（CD20）在《龍之年》中的表演。

Hong Kong-based brokerage CLSA has an annual tradition of forecasting the market’s performance in the coming year based on the lunar cycle. With a few minor tweaks, it’s as applicable to crypto as it is to traditional markets.

總部位於香港的經紀公司CLSA具有年度傳統，即根據月球週期在來年預測市場的業績。經過一些小調整，它適用於加密貨幣，就像傳統市場一樣。

Looking back at last year, the market sorcerers were spot on. Bitcoin is up 137%, while the CoinDesk 20 (CD20), an index tracking the largest digital assets, is up 128% in the last year. This crypto rally is largely thanks to the election of U.S. President Donald Trump last November, which lined up with stargazers' predictions of volatility, then a rally, in the second half of the year.

回顧去年，市場巫師很重要。比特幣增長了137％，而Coindesk 20（CD20）是跟踪最大數字資產的指數，在去年增長了128％。這次加密集會在很大程度上要歸功於去年11月美國總統唐納德·特朗普的選舉，後者與觀星者對波動性的預測有關，然後是下半年的集會。

The only area where market forecasters missed the mark last year was ether’s (ETH) performance. Citing the then-anticipated ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the Dencun upgrade to the Ethereum protocol, analysts hoped the dragon energy would ignite the market’s second largest digital asset.

去年市場預報員唯一錯過了這一成績的領域是Ether（ETH）的表現。分析師援引當時期待的以太交易所交易貿易資金（ETF）和Dencun升級，分析師希望Dragon Energy能夠點燃市場的第二大數字資產。

But that failed to materialize, and ETH is only up 35% over the last year as it struggled to keep up to the market’s gains.

但這未能實現，ETH在去年的努力努力達到市場的增長時，ETH僅比去年增長了35％。

Now, on to the Year of the Snake. CLSA says the market is bound for some unpredictable twists as assets – both traditional and crypto – make their way through the lunar months.

現在，到蛇年。 CLSA說，市場受到一些不可預測的曲折的限制，因為傳統和加密貨幣的資產 - 在月球月份都陷入困境。

The year begins with cautious optimism, as liquidity-driven modest gains mirror the Rough Green Snake climbing into trees for a vantage point.

這一年始於謹慎的樂觀，因為流動性驅動的謙虛的收益反映了粗糙的綠色蛇爬入樹木中，成為有利位置。

However, youthful volatility, akin to the Garter Snake testing its limits, brings temporary falls in early spring. By mid-year, the fiery energy of the Brown Tree Snake suggests a potential surge, lifting markets to heights not seen in a long time.

但是，年輕的波動性，類似於吊蛇測試其極限，在早春造成了暫時的跌倒。到年中，棕色樹蛇的烈性能量表明了潛在的激增，將市場提升到很長一段時間以來沒有看到的高度。

Summer stagnates, according to the stars, autumn brings minor setbacks, but the year ends with renewed momentum and a steady rise, highlighting crypto's resilience and adaptability in a volatile market.

據明星稱，夏季停滯不前，秋天帶來了輕微的挫折，但這一年以新的動力和穩定的上升而告終，突出了加密貨幣在動蕩的市場中的韌性和適應性。

Of course, CLSA also reminds readers to seek professional advice, not the guidance of the stars, before investing, and their market predictions based on heavenly guidance don’t count as a research report.

當然，CLSA還提醒讀者在投資之前尋求專業建議，而不是明星的指導，而基於天上指導的市場預測不算是研究報告。