鲁托、加查瓜为政治生存而战，拉伊拉出现了生命线和责任

他们处于硬币的不同侧面，但他们的处境却大致相同。总统威廉·鲁托和副总统里加蒂·加查瓜都发现自己正在为政治生存而战。

Both President William Ruto and his deputy Rigathi Gachagua are facing political challenges, despite being on opposing sides.

总统威廉·鲁托（William Ruto）和副手里加蒂·加查瓜（Rigathi Gachagua）尽管站在对立的一边，但都面临着政治挑战。

Ruto is relying on former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, who has accompanied him on recent trips to China, Germany, and the United States, to maintain his presidency.

鲁托依靠前总理拉伊拉·奥廷加来维持总统职位，奥廷加最近陪同他访问了中国、德国和美国。

After a youth-led uprising threatened the Kenya Kwanza administration, Odinga appears to be Ruto's lifeline. The former premier's support is also crucial as the Head of State faces challenges from his deputy and benötigt allies.

在青年领导的起义威胁肯尼亚宽扎政府后，奥廷加似乎成为鲁托的生命线。由于国家元首面临来自副手和贝诺蒂特盟友的挑战，前总理的支持也至关重要。

For the most part, Raila has seemed like a solid partner Ruto could count on. Despite boasting the backing of more than 40 MPs from Gachagua's Mt Kenya backyard, an apparent illusion of victory against his deputy, Raila seems to be the pillar holding the President together.

在大多数情况下，拉伊拉似乎是鲁托可以信赖的可靠合作伙伴。尽管拉拉吹嘘自己得到了加查瓜肯尼亚山后院 40 多名议员的支持，这显然是他的副手获胜的假象，但拉伊拉似乎是团结总统的支柱。

Ruto, a tactful politician who outsmarted his former boss, Uhuru Kenyatta, and claimed the presidency, now finds himself depending on others to guarantee his survival. Two years ago, he did not seem so vulnerable, having accessed the Mt Kenya vote without any middlemen.

鲁托是一位机智的政治家，他比前任老板乌胡鲁·肯雅塔更聪明，并夺得了总统宝座，但现在他发现自己要依靠其他人来保证自己的生存。两年前，他似乎没有那么脆弱，在没有任何中间人的情况下获得了肯尼亚山的投票。

It had seemed that Ruto had inherited former President Uhuru Kenyatta's throne, with MPs opposed to the former failing in the 2022 General Election.

鲁托似乎继承了前总统乌胡鲁·肯雅塔的王位，但议员们反对鲁托在 2022 年大选中失败。

The tables have quickly turned and the President is struggling to keep to one strategy to tame Gachagua, whose lamentations are snatching Mt Kenya away from the President's grip.

局势很快发生了转变，总统正在努力坚持一项驯服嘎查瓜的策略，它的哀嚎正在将肯尼亚山从总统的手中夺走。

Fearful that his deputy's popularity could be growing in Mt Kenya, Ruto's allies are fronting Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki as their point man as they plan to impeach Gachagua.

鲁托的盟友担心他的副手在肯尼亚山的受欢迎程度可能会上升，因此计划弹劾加查瓜，并以内政内阁部长基苏尔·金迪基为核心人物。

Observers view Kindiki's pick as aimed to keep the options open for Ruto in 2027, given he is a much easier deputy to drop as the repercussions will not be as significant.

观察人士认为，金迪基的选择旨在为鲁托在 2027 年保留选择余地，因为他是一名更容易被放弃的副手，而且影响不会那么大。

A previous bid to prop up Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro as an alternative flopped and the President has come up as desperate to rid himself of Gachagua sooner rather than later, which could have ramifications. Now he is like a man with gangrene which must be gorged out skilfully. Any misadventure with the scalpel may exorcise the gangrene but leave the host with mortal wounds.

之前支持 Kiharu 议员 Ndindi Nyoro 作为替代方案的努力失败了，总统迫切希望尽快摆脱 Gachagua，这可能会产生影响。现在他就像一个坏疽的人，必须巧妙地吞掉。手术刀的任何意外都可能驱除坏疽，但会给宿主留下致命的伤口。

“Musalia Mudavadi warned that a withdrawal of the Finance Bill 2024 would be like a vote of no confidence. Ruto lost his legitimacy on June 25 when Parliament was breached. If he wants to regain legitimacy by dumping his deputy then good luck to him,” said businessman cum politician Jimi Wanjigi.

“穆萨利亚·穆达瓦迪 (Musalia Mudavadi) 警告称，撤回《2024 年财政法案》就像一次不信任投票。 6 月 25 日，议会遭到破坏，鲁托失去了合法性。如果他想通过甩掉副手来重新获得合法性，那么祝他好运。”商人兼政治家吉米·万吉吉 (Jimi Wanjigi) 说道。

On his part, Gachagua is fighting to keep his job and is pegging his hopes on the “ground” to force lawmakers from the Mount Kenya region to shelve the ouster plan.

就加查瓜而言，他正在努力保住自己的工作，并将希望寄托在“地面”上，以迫使肯尼亚山地区的立法者搁置罢免计划。

Similarly, he has resorted to blackmailing his boss, recently warning of consequences if his Central Kenya backyard were to deem Ruto a traitor if he is to be discarded.

同样，他还敲诈了他的老板，最近警告说，如果他的肯尼亚中部后院将鲁托视为叛徒，如果他被抛弃，他将承担后果。

He is equally pleading to keep his job, urging Ruto to shelve the ouster bid and wait for the next election.

他同样恳求保住自己的职位，敦促鲁托搁置罢免提案并等待下一次选举。

An impeachment motion had seemed farfetched, but the President's alliance with Raila has made such a move within reach. The Deputy President finds himself trapped, fully aware that he will struggle to fight off his impeachment courtesy of his meager support in Parliament.

弹劾动议似乎有些牵强，但总统与拉伊拉的联盟使弹劾动议变得触手可及。副总统发现自己陷入了困境，他充分意识到，由于他在议会中的微薄支持，他将很难抵抗弹劾。

Reports indicate that more than 300 MPs have appended their signatures in support of the motion.

报道称，已有超过300名议员签名支持该动议。

Gachagua is supported by a handful of MPs from his Mt Kenya backyard, the result of his self-isolation from the rest of the country. The general feeling among lawmakers is that he will fall if the impeachment motion is tabled in Parliament.

Gachagua 得到了来自肯尼亚山后院的少数议员的支持，这是他与该国其他地区自我隔离的结果。议员们普遍认为，如果弹劾动议提交议会，他就会下台。

Uriri MP Mark Nyamita believes Gachagua will lose his relevance if impeached.

乌里里议员马克·尼亚米塔 (Mark Nyamita) 认为，如果弹劾，嘎查瓜将失去其相关性。

“His relevance only goes as far as he is sitting in that office because people want someone who can speak on their behalf. He has already lost relevance among MPs. He was vocal fighting when Uhuru and Raila and found himself with no one else to fight but his boss,” said Nyamita.

“只有当他坐在办公室里时，他的相关性才发挥作用，因为人们希望有人能够代表他们发言。他已经在国会议员中失去了影响力。当乌呼鲁和拉拉时，他大声争吵，发现自己除了老板之外没有其他人可以战斗，”尼亚米塔说。

The DP and his allies do not share this view.

民主党及其盟友并不同意这一观点。

“Our people hate betrayal and are very unforgiving if you betray them. I ask my brother Ruto not to be tempted to go to that direction because these people will be very unforgiving,” he said.

“我们的人民讨厌背叛，如果你背叛他们，他们会非常不宽容。我请求我的兄弟鲁托不要被诱惑走向那个方向，因为这些人会非常无情，”他说。

Gachagua's fall is not necessarily Ruto's gain. While the DP's exit allows the President to replace the former with a more ‘loyal’ ally, it also exposes him in case Gachagua leaves with the Mt Kenya bloc on whose back Ruto rode to the presidency.

嘎查瓜的倒下并不一定是鲁托的收获。虽然民主党的退出让总统可以用一个更“忠诚”的盟友取代前者，但这也让他面临着风险，以防加查瓜与肯尼亚山集团一起离开，而鲁托则依靠该集团登上了总统宝座。

“If the people in Mt Kenya interpret the political developments as Ruto kicking them out, then the retaliation will be serious. If the ground has shifted with Gachagua, then everyone opposing him in Mt

“如果肯尼亚山的人民将政治事态发展解释为鲁托将他们赶出去，那么报复将是严重的。如果嘎查瓜的立场发生了变化，那么山上所有反对他的人