Nansen的分析师说，随着与关税相关的不确定性的风险持续到第二季度，加密货币市场可能会在3月的最近进行更正后面临另一个下跌。

随着行业进入四月，比特币（BTC）和更广泛的加密货币市场可能会凝视着另一种倾向，因为围绕关税和美国贸易政策的不确定性

As the threat of tariffs continues to recede and the U.S. macro environment shows signs of stability, the crypto market could be setting up for another dip before April 2, according to Nansen.

据南森（Nansen）称，随着关税的威胁继续退缩，美国宏观环境显示出稳定的迹象，加密货币市场可能会在4月2日之前再次下降。

This downturn follows the recent correction in mid-March, which saw Bitcoin (BTC) and other major coins experience a swift decline from the March 1 lows.

这是3月中旬最近进行的更正，后者是比特币（BTC）和其他主要硬币从3月1日的低点迅速下降。

According to Nansen’s analysts, there’s a 70% chance that the market may encounter another price adjustment in the weeks after April 2.

根据Nansen的分析师的说法，在4月2日之后的几周中，市场可能会遇到70％的可能性调整。

After this second correction, they anticipate the market to stabilize and set the stage for sustained growth throughout the remainder of the year, ultimately paving the way for a return to all-time highs.

在第二次更正之后，他们预计市场将在今年剩余的时间里稳定并为持续增长奠定基础，最终为回到历史最高高点铺平了道路。

“In my main scenario, 70% subjective likelihood, I expect another leg down in crypto prices after April 2 after we reached a local bottom in mid-March. After this second correction, I expect we will be bottoming for the rest of the year (continuation of the bull market and revisit of the ATHs for BTC). ”

“在我的主要情况下，70％的主观可能性，我希望在3月中旬到达3月2日的本地底部后，加密货币价格下降。在第二次纠正之后，我希望我们将在今年剩下的时间里（持续的公牛市场和Aths oths oths for BTC的重新审视）。”

However, in a scenario with a 30% subjective likelihood, they believe that the market has already bottomed and suggest that a return to the 2022 lows is possible in the event of a recession.

但是，在具有30％主观可能性的情况下，他们认为市场已经触底，并暗示在经济衰退的情况下可能会重返2022年低点。

“For the remaining 30%: it would be if we have already bottomed or if this is just a dead cat bounce for U.S. equities and crypto (in case of a recession, which is not my base case, I think the U.S. is just slowing from 3% to 1.5-2% growth).”

“对于剩下的30％：如果我们已经触底了，或者这只是对美国股票和加密货币的死猫弹跳（如果经济衰退，这不是我的基本案例，我认为美国的增长速度仅为3％至1.5-2％）。”

This period of uncertainty has been largely driven by the tariff situation, which has seen the U.S. policy uncertainty index hit new highs.

这一不确定性时期主要是由于关税局势所驱动的，这使美国的政策不确定性指数达到了新的高点。

With the U.S. administration engaging in trade discussions with several countries, including China, and expressing concerns over tariffs, this has become a key source of investor unease.

随着美国政府与包括中国在内的多个国家进行贸易讨论，并对关税表示关注，这已成为投资者不安的主要来源。

According to Nansen, the uncertainty is expected to peak soon as Treasury Secretary Bessent recently pointed out that many of the U.S.’s trading partners are now negotiating to reduce their own trade barriers, helping to ease some concerns.

据南森（Nansen）称，预计不确定性将很快达到顶峰，而财政部长贝森特（Bessent）最近指出，美国许多贸易伙伴现在正在谈判减少自己的贸易障碍，从而缓解一些担忧。

Even President Donald Trump has hinted at potential tariff “exemptions” in specific instances.

甚至唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）总统也暗示了在特定情况下潜在的关税“豁免”。

While these talks may ultimately benefit the U.S. with long-term growth, Nansen believes that the uncertainty will likely linger well into the second quarter.

尽管这些谈判最终可能会通过长期增长而使美国受益，但Nansen认为，不确定性可能会持续到第二季度。

“Right now, I think that we are experiencing corrections within a crypto bull market. Why I see this as a bull market still: 1) Ongoing progress on crypto regulation and crypto institutionalization in the U.S., and 2) U.S. real growth has slowed but is not flashing ‘recession.’ Of course, this is my only main scenario, and I will continue to watch data and markets for signs that this is the correct reading.”

“目前，我认为我们正在加密牛市中经历更正。为什么我将其视为牛市市场：1）在美国加密监管和加密制度化方面的持续进展，以及2）我们真正的增长却放慢了，但没有闪烁的“经济衰退”。当然，这是我唯一的主要情况，我将继续观看数据和市场，以表明这是正确的阅读。”

According to Nansen, there’s a 50/50 chance that the peak of trade policy uncertainty has passed.

据南森说，贸易政策不确定性的高峰已经过去50/50。

The true impact of these tariff negotiations might not be fully clear until mid-year.

这些关税谈判的真正影响可能要等到年中才完全清楚。

However, the researchers believe that this peak uncertainty is more likely to fall between April and June, especially with the start of U.S. tax cut package discussions.

但是，研究人员认为，这种高峰不确定性更有可能在4月至6月之间，尤其是在美国减税计划讨论的开始。

This uncertainty could trigger another short-term correction in both Bitcoin and U.S. equities, according to their analysis.

根据他们的分析，这种不确定性可能会引发比特币和美国股票的另一种短期校正。

No evidence of recession yet

尚无衰退的证据

Despite this downturn, there are signs of optimism as technicals are showing encouraging signs.

尽管经济低迷，但由于技术表现出令人鼓舞的迹象，因此仍然存在乐观迹象。

The recent dip is being absorbed by buyers, evident in both BTC and U.S. equities, and the lack of sellers is pushing prices up again.

最近的跌幅正在被买方吸收，在BTC和美国股票中都很明显，而缺乏卖方正在再次提高价格。

Furthermore, the researchers highlight that Bitcoin ETFs saw seven days of net inflows, a trend not seen since crypto prices peaked earlier this year.

此外，研究人员强调说，比特币ETF看到了7天的净流入，这一趋势自今年早些时候加密货币价格达到峰值以来就没有看到。

One way or another, it’s clear that the market remains cautious as a lot of people are questioning whether the crypto bull run is still going strong or if we’re getting close to a peak.

一种或另一种方式，很明显，市场仍然谨慎，因为很多人都在质疑加密公牛的运行是否仍然很强劲，还是我们接近峰值。

If history is any indication, times of economic uncertainty have often lined up with market downturns, making investors even more cautious.

如果有任何迹象，经济不确定性的时代通常会与市场低迷相处，从而使投资者更加谨慎。

After market sentiment hit extreme fear last week, with some investment banks raising the U.S. recession probability to 40% for this year, hard economic data has eased these concerns.

上周市场情绪引起了极端恐惧之后，一些投资银行将美国衰退的可能性提高到了今年的40％，艰苦的经济数据缓解了这些担忧。

The latest U.S. March flash PMI report shows a 53.5 score, the highest in three months, suggesting a 1.9% annual growth rate. However, the growth for the whole quarter is lower at 1.5% due to weaker data in January and February.

美国最新的3月Flash PMI报告显示，得分为53.5，是三个月来最高的，表明年增长率为1.9％。但是，由于一月份和2月的数据较弱，整个季度的增长率下降了1.5％。

Most importantly, there is still no evidence of a recession at this stage, and most of the data weakness has been in sentiment indicators, while hard economic data has held up.

最重要的是，此阶段仍然没有证据表明经济衰退，而大多数数据弱点都是在情绪指标中，而经济数据却持续了。

At present, there is no evidence of a transition into a bear market.

目前，没有证据表明过渡到熊市。