Nansen的分析師說，隨著與關稅相關的不確定性的風險持續到第二季度，加密貨幣市場可能會在3月的最近進行更正後面臨另一個下跌。

隨著行業進入四月，比特幣（BTC）和更廣泛的加密貨幣市場可能會凝視著另一種傾向，因為圍繞關稅和美國貿易政策的不確定性

As the threat of tariffs continues to recede and the U.S. macro environment shows signs of stability, the crypto market could be setting up for another dip before April 2, according to Nansen.

據南森（Nansen）稱，隨著關稅的威脅繼續退縮，美國宏觀環境顯示出穩定的跡象，加密貨幣市場可能會在4月2日之前再次下降。

This downturn follows the recent correction in mid-March, which saw Bitcoin (BTC) and other major coins experience a swift decline from the March 1 lows.

這是3月中旬最近進行的更正，後者是比特幣（BTC）和其他主要硬幣從3月1日的低點迅速下降。

According to Nansen’s analysts, there’s a 70% chance that the market may encounter another price adjustment in the weeks after April 2.

根據Nansen的分析師的說法，在4月2日之後的幾周中，市場可能會遇到70％的可能性調整。

After this second correction, they anticipate the market to stabilize and set the stage for sustained growth throughout the remainder of the year, ultimately paving the way for a return to all-time highs.

在第二次更正之後，他們預計市場將在今年剩餘的時間裡穩定並為持續增長奠定基礎，最終為回到歷史最高高點鋪平了道路。

“In my main scenario, 70% subjective likelihood, I expect another leg down in crypto prices after April 2 after we reached a local bottom in mid-March. After this second correction, I expect we will be bottoming for the rest of the year (continuation of the bull market and revisit of the ATHs for BTC). ”

“在我的主要情況下，70％的主觀可能性，我希望在3月中旬到達3月2日的本地底部後，加密貨幣價格下降。在第二次糾正之後，我希望我們將在今年剩下的時間裡（持續的公牛市場和Aths oths oths for BTC的重新審視）。”

However, in a scenario with a 30% subjective likelihood, they believe that the market has already bottomed and suggest that a return to the 2022 lows is possible in the event of a recession.

但是，在具有30％主觀可能性的情況下，他們認為市場已經觸底，並暗示在經濟衰退的情況下可能會重返2022年低點。

“For the remaining 30%: it would be if we have already bottomed or if this is just a dead cat bounce for U.S. equities and crypto (in case of a recession, which is not my base case, I think the U.S. is just slowing from 3% to 1.5-2% growth).”

“對於剩下的30％：如果我們已經觸底了，或者這只是對美國股票和加密貨幣的死貓彈跳（如果經濟衰退，這不是我的基本案例，我認為美國的增長速度僅為3％至1.5-2％）。”

This period of uncertainty has been largely driven by the tariff situation, which has seen the U.S. policy uncertainty index hit new highs.

這一不確定性時期主要是由於關稅局勢所驅動的，這使美國的政策不確定性指數達到了新的高點。

With the U.S. administration engaging in trade discussions with several countries, including China, and expressing concerns over tariffs, this has become a key source of investor unease.

隨著美國政府與包括中國在內的多個國家進行貿易討論，並對關稅表示關注，這已成為投資者不安的主要來源。

According to Nansen, the uncertainty is expected to peak soon as Treasury Secretary Bessent recently pointed out that many of the U.S.’s trading partners are now negotiating to reduce their own trade barriers, helping to ease some concerns.

據南森（Nansen）稱，預計不確定性將很快達到頂峰，而財政部長貝森特（Bessent）最近指出，美國許多貿易夥伴現在正在談判減少自己的貿易障礙，從而緩解一些擔憂。

Even President Donald Trump has hinted at potential tariff “exemptions” in specific instances.

甚至唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）總統也暗示了在特定情況下潛在的關稅“豁免”。

While these talks may ultimately benefit the U.S. with long-term growth, Nansen believes that the uncertainty will likely linger well into the second quarter.

儘管這些談判最終可能會通過長期增長而使美國受益，但Nansen認為，不確定性可能會持續到第二季度。

“Right now, I think that we are experiencing corrections within a crypto bull market. Why I see this as a bull market still: 1) Ongoing progress on crypto regulation and crypto institutionalization in the U.S., and 2) U.S. real growth has slowed but is not flashing ‘recession.’ Of course, this is my only main scenario, and I will continue to watch data and markets for signs that this is the correct reading.”

“目前，我認為我們正在加密牛市中經歷更正。為什麼我將其視為牛市市場：1）在美國加密監管和加密製度化方面的持續進展，以及2）我們真正的增長卻放慢了，但沒有閃爍的“經濟衰退”。當然，這是我唯一的主要情況，我將繼續觀看數據和市場，以表明這是正確的閱讀。”

According to Nansen, there’s a 50/50 chance that the peak of trade policy uncertainty has passed.

據南森說，貿易政策不確定性的高峰已經過去50/50。

The true impact of these tariff negotiations might not be fully clear until mid-year.

這些關稅談判的真正影響可能要等到年中才完全清楚。

However, the researchers believe that this peak uncertainty is more likely to fall between April and June, especially with the start of U.S. tax cut package discussions.

但是，研究人員認為，這種高峰不確定性更有可能在4月至6月之間，尤其是在美國減稅計劃討論的開始。

This uncertainty could trigger another short-term correction in both Bitcoin and U.S. equities, according to their analysis.

根據他們的分析，這種不確定性可能會引發比特幣和美國股票的另一種短期校正。

No evidence of recession yet

尚無衰退的證據

Despite this downturn, there are signs of optimism as technicals are showing encouraging signs.

儘管經濟低迷，但由於技術表現出令人鼓舞的跡象，因此仍然存在樂觀跡象。

The recent dip is being absorbed by buyers, evident in both BTC and U.S. equities, and the lack of sellers is pushing prices up again.

最近的跌幅正在被買方吸收，在BTC和美國股票中都很明顯，而缺乏賣方正在再次提高價格。

Furthermore, the researchers highlight that Bitcoin ETFs saw seven days of net inflows, a trend not seen since crypto prices peaked earlier this year.

此外，研究人員強調說，比特幣ETF看到了7天的淨流入，這一趨勢自今年早些時候加密貨幣價格達到峰值以來就沒有看到。

One way or another, it’s clear that the market remains cautious as a lot of people are questioning whether the crypto bull run is still going strong or if we’re getting close to a peak.

一種或另一種方式，很明顯，市場仍然謹慎，因為很多人都在質疑加密公牛的運行是否仍然很強勁，還是我們接近峰值。

If history is any indication, times of economic uncertainty have often lined up with market downturns, making investors even more cautious.

如果有任何跡象，經濟不確定性的時代通常會與市場低迷相處，從而使投資者更加謹慎。

After market sentiment hit extreme fear last week, with some investment banks raising the U.S. recession probability to 40% for this year, hard economic data has eased these concerns.

上週市場情緒引起了極端恐懼之後，一些投資銀行將美國衰退的可能性提高到了今年的40％，艱苦的經濟數據緩解了這些擔憂。

The latest U.S. March flash PMI report shows a 53.5 score, the highest in three months, suggesting a 1.9% annual growth rate. However, the growth for the whole quarter is lower at 1.5% due to weaker data in January and February.

美國最新的3月Flash PMI報告顯示，得分為53.5，是三個月來最高的，表明年增長率為1.9％。但是，由於一月份和2月的數據較弱，整個季度的增長率下降了1.5％。

Most importantly, there is still no evidence of a recession at this stage, and most of the data weakness has been in sentiment indicators, while hard economic data has held up.

最重要的是，此階段仍然沒有證據表明經濟衰退，而大多數數據弱點都是在情緒指標中，而經濟數據卻持續了。

At present, there is no evidence of a transition into a bear market.

目前，沒有證據表明過渡到熊市。