分析师警告称，美国经济衰退的担忧引发了比特币被没收的担忧

链上分析师 Willy Woo 对经济衰退时散户比特币投资者的命运表示担忧，尤其是在美国。 Woo 将其与 1930 年的大萧条进行了比较，当时政府没收了公众的黄金，并质疑比特币是否会出现类似的情况，从而可能给散户投资者带来严重后果。这位分析师的担忧源于这样一个事实：虽然鲸鱼（大型比特币持有者）拥有对其私钥的控制权，但大多数零售商将其比特币存储在中心化交易所上，这使得它们很容易受到潜在的政府扣押。

Bitcoin Investors Face Uncertain Future Amidst Recession Fears: Government Confiscation Looms

比特币投资者在经济衰退担忧中面临不确定的未来：政府没收迫在眉睫

New York, April 29, 2023 - As the global economy trembles on the brink of recession, particularly in the United States, the fate of retail Bitcoin (BTC) investors hangs precariously in the balance. Analyst Willy Woo, renowned for his on-chain expertise, has issued a chilling warning, drawing eerie parallels to the Great Depression of 1930 and its aftermath.

纽约，2023 年 4 月 29 日 - 随着全球经济（尤其是美国经济）在衰退的边缘颤抖，散户比特币 (BTC) 投资者的命运岌岌可危。以其链上专业知识而闻名的分析师 Willy Woo 发出了令人不寒而栗的警告，将其与 1930 年的大萧条及其后果进行了令人毛骨悚然的相似之处。

Historical Parallels and the Specter of Confiscation

历史相似之处和没收的幽灵

Woo's analysis delves deep into the annals of economic history, particularly the United States government's controversial seizure of gold from the public during the Great Depression. This audacious move was motivated by the desperate need to replenish national reserves amidst the financial cataclysm.

吴的分析深入探讨了经济史，特别是美国政府在大萧条期间从公众手中夺取黄金的争议性事件。这一大胆举措的动机是在金融灾难中迫切需要补充国家储备。

Now, Woo raises the unsettling question: could a similar scenario unfold with Bitcoin, a digital asset that has surged in popularity and value over the past decade? If so, the consequences for retail investors could be dire.

现在，Woo 提出了一个令人不安的问题：比特币这种在过去十年中受欢迎程度和价值都飙升的数字资产是否会出现类似的情况？如果是这样，散户投资者的后果可能是可怕的。

Bitcoin Distribution and Custodial Divide

比特币分配和托管划分

To assess the potential for a government confiscation of Bitcoin, it is crucial to examine how the asset is currently distributed and stored. According to Woo's data, a staggering 87% of Bitcoin is held in self-custody wallets, primarily through platforms like Samourai, where individuals retain control of their private keys.

为了评估政府没收比特币的可能性，至关重要的是检查该资产目前的分配和存储方式。根据 Woo 的数据，令人震惊的是，87% 的比特币存放在自我托管钱包中，主要是通过 Samourai 等平台，个人在这些平台上保留对其私钥的控制权。

This self-custody approach grants holders the exclusive ability to sign transactions, thereby proving ownership of their coins. In contrast, only 1% of Bitcoin is held by spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuers like Fidelity. These issuers, particularly in the United States, have been aggressively acquiring BTC to meet the insatiable demand from investors, including institutional giants.

这种自我托管方法赋予持有者签署交易的专有能力，从而证明其代币的所有权。相比之下，富达等现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）发行人仅持有 1% 的比特币。这些发行人，尤其是美国的发行人，一直在积极收购比特币，以满足包括机构巨头在内的投资者永不满足的需求。

The remaining 12% of Bitcoin resides on centralized exchanges like Binance, Kraken, and Coinbase, where active investors and traders often park their holdings. While holders on exchanges do not possess the private keys to their coins, they retain the flexibility to liquidate into fiat currencies, stablecoins, or altcoins.

剩下的 12% 的比特币存放在 Binance、Kraken 和 Coinbase 等中心化交易所，活跃的投资者和交易者经常将其持有的比特币存放在这些交易所。虽然交易所的持有者不拥有其代币的私钥，但他们保留了清算为法定货币、稳定币或山寨币的灵活性。

Retail Investors' Vulnerability

散户投资者的脆弱性

Despite the dominance of non-custodial wallets, Woo underscores a critical distinction: whales, or large Bitcoin holders, are more likely to utilize this secure storage method. Retail investors, on the other hand, tend to fall within the 12% category, entrusting their coins to centralized exchanges.

尽管非托管钱包占据主导地位，但 Woo 强调了一个关键区别：鲸鱼或大型比特币持有者更有可能利用这种安全存储方法。另一方面，散户投资者往往属于 12% 的类别，将他们的代币委托给中心化交易所。

This dichotomy becomes highly consequential in times of economic turmoil. If the government were to replicate its gold confiscation strategy with Bitcoin, retail investors who store their holdings on exchanges would be most vulnerable. Their lack of direct control over private keys could leave them exposed to potential government interference.

在经济动荡时期，这种二分法变得非常重要。如果政府用比特币复制其黄金没收策略，那么将其持有的黄金存储在交易所的散户投资者将最容易受到伤害。他们缺乏对私钥的直接控制可能使他们面临潜在的政府干预。

Is a Recession Imminent?

经济衰退即将来临吗？

The macroeconomic backdrop is fueling concerns about the potential for a recession in the United States. Rising inflationary pressures and softening GDP growth, evident in recent economic data, are raising alarm bells. The Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision will be closely scrutinized for its implications on the economy and financial markets.

宏观经济背景加剧了人们对美国经济衰退可能性的担忧。近期经济数据显示，通胀压力上升和GDP增长疲软正在敲响警钟。美联储即将做出的利率决定将因其对经济和金融市场的影响而受到密切关注。

Uncertain Future for Retail Investors

散户投资者的未来不确定

The potential for government confiscation and the uncertain economic outlook cast a long shadow over the future of retail Bitcoin investors. While the precise contours of the situation remain unclear, the lessons of the past and the current distribution dynamics suggest that they could face significant challenges if a recession strikes and government intervention becomes a reality.

政府没收的可能性和不确定的经济前景给散户比特币投资者的未来蒙上了长长的阴影。尽管具体情况仍不清楚，但过去的教训和当前的分配动态表明，如果经济衰退袭来且政府干预成为现实，他们可能会面临重大挑战。