分析師警告稱，美國經濟衰退的擔憂引發了比特幣被沒收的擔憂

鏈上分析師 Willy Woo 對經濟衰退時散戶比特幣投資者的命運表示擔憂，尤其是在美國。 Woo 將其與 1930 年的大蕭條進行了比較，當時政府沒收了公眾的黃金，並質疑比特幣是否會出現類似的情況，這可能會給散戶投資者帶來嚴重後果。這位分析師的擔憂源於這樣一個事實：雖然鯨魚（大型比特幣持有者）擁有對其私鑰的控制權，但大多數零售商將其比特幣儲存在中心化交易所上，這使得它們很容易受到潛在的政府扣押。

Bitcoin Investors Face Uncertain Future Amidst Recession Fears: Government Confiscation Looms

比特幣投資者在經濟衰退擔憂中面臨不確定的未來：政府沒收迫在眉睫

New York, April 29, 2023 - As the global economy trembles on the brink of recession, particularly in the United States, the fate of retail Bitcoin (BTC) investors hangs precariously in the balance. Analyst Willy Woo, renowned for his on-chain expertise, has issued a chilling warning, drawing eerie parallels to the Great Depression of 1930 and its aftermath.

紐約，2023 年 4 月 29 日 - 隨著全球經濟（尤其是美國經濟）在衰退的邊緣顫抖，散戶比特幣 (BTC) 投資者的命運岌岌可危。以其鏈上專業知識而聞名的分析師 Willy Woo 發出了令人不寒而慄的警告，將其與 1930 年的大蕭條及其後果進行了令人毛骨悚然的相似之處。

Historical Parallels and the Specter of Confiscation

歷史相似之處和沒收的幽靈

Woo's analysis delves deep into the annals of economic history, particularly the United States government's controversial seizure of gold from the public during the Great Depression. This audacious move was motivated by the desperate need to replenish national reserves amidst the financial cataclysm.

吳的分析深入探討了經濟史，特別是美國政府在大蕭條期間從公眾手中奪取黃金的爭議性事件。這一大膽舉措的動機是在金融災難中迫切需要補充國家儲備。

Now, Woo raises the unsettling question: could a similar scenario unfold with Bitcoin, a digital asset that has surged in popularity and value over the past decade? If so, the consequences for retail investors could be dire.

現在，Woo 提出了一個令人不安的問題：比特幣在過去十年中受歡迎程度和價值都飆升的數位資產是否會出現類似的情況？如果是這樣，散戶的後果可能是可怕的。

Bitcoin Distribution and Custodial Divide

比特幣分配和託管劃分

To assess the potential for a government confiscation of Bitcoin, it is crucial to examine how the asset is currently distributed and stored. According to Woo's data, a staggering 87% of Bitcoin is held in self-custody wallets, primarily through platforms like Samourai, where individuals retain control of their private keys.

為了評估政府沒收比特幣的可能性，至關重要的是檢查該資產目前的分配和儲存方式。根據 Woo 的數據，令人震驚的是，87% 的比特幣存放在自我託管錢包中，主要是透過 Samourai 等平台，個人在這些平台上保留對其私鑰的控制權。

This self-custody approach grants holders the exclusive ability to sign transactions, thereby proving ownership of their coins. In contrast, only 1% of Bitcoin is held by spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuers like Fidelity. These issuers, particularly in the United States, have been aggressively acquiring BTC to meet the insatiable demand from investors, including institutional giants.

這種自我託管方法賦予持有者簽署交易的專有能力，從而證明其代幣的所有權。相比之下，富達等現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）發行人僅持有 1% 的比特幣。這些發行人，尤其是美國的發行人，一直在積極收購比特幣，以滿足包括機構巨頭在內的投資者永不滿足的需求。

The remaining 12% of Bitcoin resides on centralized exchanges like Binance, Kraken, and Coinbase, where active investors and traders often park their holdings. While holders on exchanges do not possess the private keys to their coins, they retain the flexibility to liquidate into fiat currencies, stablecoins, or altcoins.

剩下的 12% 的比特幣存放在 Binance、Kraken 和 Coinbase 等中心化交易所，活躍的投資者和交易者經常將其持有的比特幣存放在這些交易所。雖然交易所的持有者不擁有其代幣的私鑰，但他們保留了清算為法定貨幣、穩定幣或山寨幣的靈活性。

Retail Investors' Vulnerability

散戶的脆弱性

Despite the dominance of non-custodial wallets, Woo underscores a critical distinction: whales, or large Bitcoin holders, are more likely to utilize this secure storage method. Retail investors, on the other hand, tend to fall within the 12% category, entrusting their coins to centralized exchanges.

儘管非託管錢包佔據主導地位，但 Woo 強調了一個關鍵區別：鯨魚或大型比特幣持有者更有可能利用這種安全儲存方法。另一方面，散戶往往屬於 12% 的類別，將他們的代幣委託給中心化交易所。

This dichotomy becomes highly consequential in times of economic turmoil. If the government were to replicate its gold confiscation strategy with Bitcoin, retail investors who store their holdings on exchanges would be most vulnerable. Their lack of direct control over private keys could leave them exposed to potential government interference.

在經濟動盪時期，這種二分法變得非常重要。如果政府用比特幣複製其黃金沒收策略，那麼將其持有的黃金存放在交易所的散戶投資者將最容易受到傷害。他們缺乏對私鑰的直接控制可能使他們面臨潛在的政府乾預。

Is a Recession Imminent?

經濟衰退即將來臨嗎？

The macroeconomic backdrop is fueling concerns about the potential for a recession in the United States. Rising inflationary pressures and softening GDP growth, evident in recent economic data, are raising alarm bells. The Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision will be closely scrutinized for its implications on the economy and financial markets.

宏觀經濟背景加劇了人們對美國經濟衰退可能性的擔憂。近期經濟數據顯示，通膨壓力上升和GDP成長疲軟正在敲響警鐘。聯準會即將做出的利率決定將因其對經濟和金融市場的影響而受到密切關注。

Uncertain Future for Retail Investors

散戶的未來不確定

The potential for government confiscation and the uncertain economic outlook cast a long shadow over the future of retail Bitcoin investors. While the precise contours of the situation remain unclear, the lessons of the past and the current distribution dynamics suggest that they could face significant challenges if a recession strikes and government intervention becomes a reality.

政府沒收的可能性和不確定的經濟前景給散戶比特幣投資者的未來蒙上了長長的陰影。儘管具體情況仍不清楚，但過去的教訓和當前的分配動態表明，如果經濟衰退襲來且政府乾預成為現實，他們可能會面臨重大挑戰。