真正的Vision创始人兼首席执行官Raoul Pal更新BTC，ETH和SOL市场周期

周二，真实视觉创始人兼首席执行官拉尔·帕尔（Raoul Pal）预测，目前的加密货币牛市周期最初预计将在2025年达到顶峰

Real Vision Founder and CEO predicts that the current cryptocurrency bull market cycle, initially anticipated to peak in 2025, may extend into 2026 due to a prolonged business cycle.

真正的Vision创始人兼首席执行官预测，由于延长商业周期，目前预计将在2025年达到顶峰的当前加密货币牛市周期可能会延伸到2026年。

What Happened: Pal addressed the chaotic market conditions, providing reassurance to crypto investors navigating a period of sharp volatility. He explained why he believes the cycle's expansion aligns with broader economic indicators, shifting from his earlier timeframe of a 2025 peak.

发生的事情：PAL解决了混乱的市场状况，为加密投资者提供了放心的态度，以急剧波动。他解释了为什么他认为这一周期的扩张与更广泛的经济指标相吻合，这与他早期的2025年山峰时期相比。

The seasoned macro analyst highlighted that the business cycle's sluggish pace below the key 50 threshold on the ISM survey—a measure of economic activity—is now showing signs of expansion, pushing out the timeline for the crypto market's peak.

这位经验丰富的宏观分析师强调，商业周期低于ISM调查的关键50个阈值（一种经济活动的衡量标准）现在显示出扩展的迹象，为加密货币市场的峰值推出了时间表。

"My view is that the business cycle is taking a long time below 50, it's starting to expand now.

“我的看法是，商业周期的时间为50岁以下，现在开始扩大。

That has probably extended the cycle into 2026," he stated, clarifying that this shift is not yet a firm prediction but a structural observation based on which way the data is flowing.

他说，这可能已经将周期扩展到2026年。

He ties this extension to improving financial conditions, including a weakening U.S. dollar and anticipated lower interest rates, which he expects will fuel risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins.

他将这一扩展与改善财务状况联系起来，包括美元疲软和预期的较低利率，他预计这将为比特币和替代币等风险资产加油。

Pal highlighted Bitcoin's recent retreat from a high of $110,000 to $80,000 and Solana's 53% drop as typical volatility within a bull market, advising patience as markets adjust.

PAL强调了比特币最近从110,000美元的高点撤退到80,000美元，而Solana的53％下降是牛市中典型的波动，建议随着市场调整，耐心。

He referenced historical patterns, such as the 2017 cycle under Trump's first term, where a similar dollar-driven economic slowdown preceded a massive crypto surge that varied massively from March 2017's lows to August 2017 highs.

他提到了历史模式，例如在特朗普的第一任期下的2017年周期，同样，以美元驱动的经济放缓是在大规模加密速度激增之前，从2017年3月的低点到2017年8月，巨大的差异。

Also Read: Bitcoin Bottom Will Be $70,000 ‘At Worst,’ Arthur Hayes Says

另请阅读：比特币底部最糟糕的是$ 70,000'，”亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）说

Why It Matters: Pal's analysis, backed by Global M2 charts showing money supply growth, suggests that after a choppy period through mid-March, prices could accelerate in April, May, and June 2025, with further upside into 2026.

为什么重要的是：PAL的分析得到了显示货币供应量增长的全球M2图表的支持，这表明在3月中旬的波动期间，价格可能会在2025年的4月，5月和6月在2026年进一步加速。

Pal's framework, which he termed the "don't f*ck this up" thesis, focused on smart leverage, overexposure to small altcoins, and a portfolio core of majors like Bitcoin BTC/USD, Ethereum ETH/USD, and Solana SOL/USD.

PAL的框架称为“不要f*ck this”论文，专注于智能杠杆，过度暴露于小山寨币，以及比特币BTC/USD，以太坊ETH/USD和Solana Sol/USD等专业的投资组合核心。

He highlighted Solana's oversold status versus Global M2 as a buying opportunity, predicting it will outperform Bitcoin and Ethereum toward the cycle's end.

他强调了索拉纳（Solana）的超售状态与全球M2作为购买机会，预测它将超越比特币和以太坊在周期的结束上。

"Solana should outperform Bitcoin for the rest of this cycle and Ethereum too, with SUI outperforming Solana," he asserted, dismissing claims of Solana's demise amid a meme coin collapse, rendering them "bulls**t."

他断言：“在本周期的其余部分和以太坊中，Solana也应该胜过比特币，而Sui的表现要优于Sui的表现。”他驳回了Meme Coin Coin崩溃的索拉纳（Solana）死亡的说法，使他们“公牛** t。”。

Drawing on extensive research from Global Macro Investor, Pal connected crypto's trajectory to macro drivers like the ISM survey, which he expects to climb above 60, potentially pushing Bitcoin past $300,000.

PAL借鉴了全球宏观投资者的广泛研究，将加密货币的轨迹与ISM调查等宏观驱动器联系起来，他预计该轨迹将攀升至60岁以上，可能会将比特币推到300,000美元以上。

He also noted forward-looking indicators, such as ISM New Orders Less Inventories rising sharply, signaling economic growth within three months that could lift crypto prices.

他还指出，前瞻性指标，例如ISM新订单较少的库存急剧上升，这表明经济增长在三个月内可以提高加密价格。

Despite seven 20%+ pullbacks in this cycle yielding 600% returns from the low, Pal stressed resilience, urging investors to "breathe deeply" and await the next phase of the banana zone, now stretched into 2026.

尽管在此周期中有7个20％以上的回调，从低位获得了600％的回报，但PAL强调了弹性，敦促投资者“深呼吸”，并等待香蕉区的下一个阶段，现在一直延伸到2026年。

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