真正的Vision創始人兼首席執行官Raoul Pal更新BTC，ETH和SOL市場週期

週二，真實視覺創始人兼首席執行官拉爾·帕爾（Raoul Pal）預測，目前的加密貨幣牛市週期最初預計將在2025年達到頂峰

Real Vision Founder and CEO predicts that the current cryptocurrency bull market cycle, initially anticipated to peak in 2025, may extend into 2026 due to a prolonged business cycle.

真正的Vision創始人兼首席執行官預測，由於延長商業周期，目前預計將在2025年達到頂峰的當前加密貨幣牛市週期可能會延伸到2026年。

What Happened: Pal addressed the chaotic market conditions, providing reassurance to crypto investors navigating a period of sharp volatility. He explained why he believes the cycle's expansion aligns with broader economic indicators, shifting from his earlier timeframe of a 2025 peak.

發生的事情：PAL解決了混亂的市場狀況，為加密投資者提供了放心的態度，以急劇波動。他解釋了為什麼他認為這一周期的擴張與更廣泛的經濟指標相吻合，這與他早期的2025年山峰時期相比。

The seasoned macro analyst highlighted that the business cycle's sluggish pace below the key 50 threshold on the ISM survey—a measure of economic activity—is now showing signs of expansion, pushing out the timeline for the crypto market's peak.

這位經驗豐富的宏觀分析師強調，商業周期低於ISM調查的關鍵50個閾值（一種經濟活動的衡量標準）現在顯示出擴展的跡象，為加密貨幣市場的峰值推出了時間表。

"My view is that the business cycle is taking a long time below 50, it's starting to expand now.

“我的看法是，商業周期的時間為50歲以下，現在開始擴大。

That has probably extended the cycle into 2026," he stated, clarifying that this shift is not yet a firm prediction but a structural observation based on which way the data is flowing.

他說，這可能已經將周期擴展到2026年。

He ties this extension to improving financial conditions, including a weakening U.S. dollar and anticipated lower interest rates, which he expects will fuel risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins.

他將這一擴展與改善財務狀況聯繫起來，包括美元疲軟和預期的較低利率，他預計這將為比特幣和替代幣等風險資產加油。

Pal highlighted Bitcoin's recent retreat from a high of $110,000 to $80,000 and Solana's 53% drop as typical volatility within a bull market, advising patience as markets adjust.

PAL強調了比特幣最近從110,000美元的高點撤退到80,000美元，而Solana的53％下降是牛市中典型的波動，建議隨著市場調整，耐心。

He referenced historical patterns, such as the 2017 cycle under Trump's first term, where a similar dollar-driven economic slowdown preceded a massive crypto surge that varied massively from March 2017's lows to August 2017 highs.

他提到了歷史模式，例如在特朗普的第一任期下的2017年周期，同樣，以美元驅動的經濟放緩是在大規模加密速度激增之前，從2017年3月的低點到2017年8月，巨大的差異。

Also Read: Bitcoin Bottom Will Be $70,000 ‘At Worst,’ Arthur Hayes Says

另請閱讀：比特幣底部最糟糕的是$ 70,000'，”亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）說

Why It Matters: Pal's analysis, backed by Global M2 charts showing money supply growth, suggests that after a choppy period through mid-March, prices could accelerate in April, May, and June 2025, with further upside into 2026.

為什麼重要的是：PAL的分析得到了顯示貨幣供應量增長的全球M2圖表的支持，這表明在3月中旬的波動期間，價格可能會在2025年的4月，5月和6月在2026年進一步加速。

Pal's framework, which he termed the "don't f*ck this up" thesis, focused on smart leverage, overexposure to small altcoins, and a portfolio core of majors like Bitcoin BTC/USD, Ethereum ETH/USD, and Solana SOL/USD.

PAL的框架稱為“不要f*ck this”論文，專注於智能槓桿，過度暴露於小山寨幣，以及比特幣BTC/USD，以太坊ETH/USD和Solana Sol/USD等專業的投資組合核心。

He highlighted Solana's oversold status versus Global M2 as a buying opportunity, predicting it will outperform Bitcoin and Ethereum toward the cycle's end.

他強調了索拉納（Solana）的超售狀態與全球M2作為購買機會，預測它將超越比特幣和以太坊在周期的結束上。

"Solana should outperform Bitcoin for the rest of this cycle and Ethereum too, with SUI outperforming Solana," he asserted, dismissing claims of Solana's demise amid a meme coin collapse, rendering them "bulls**t."

他斷言：“在本週期的其餘部分和以太坊中，Solana也應該勝過比特幣，而Sui的表現要優於Sui的表現。”他駁回了Meme Coin Coin崩潰的索拉納（Solana）死亡的說法，使他們“公牛** t。”。

Drawing on extensive research from Global Macro Investor, Pal connected crypto's trajectory to macro drivers like the ISM survey, which he expects to climb above 60, potentially pushing Bitcoin past $300,000.

PAL借鑒了全球宏觀投資者的廣泛研究，將加密貨幣的軌跡與ISM調查等宏觀驅動器聯繫起來，他預計該軌跡將攀升至60歲以上，可能會將比特幣推到300,000美元以上。

He also noted forward-looking indicators, such as ISM New Orders Less Inventories rising sharply, signaling economic growth within three months that could lift crypto prices.

他還指出，前瞻性指標，例如ISM新訂單較少的庫存急劇上升，這表明經濟增長在三個月內可以提高加密價格。

Despite seven 20%+ pullbacks in this cycle yielding 600% returns from the low, Pal stressed resilience, urging investors to "breathe deeply" and await the next phase of the banana zone, now stretched into 2026.

儘管在此週期中有7個20％以上的回調，從低位獲得了600％的回報，但PAL強調了彈性，敦促投資者“深呼吸”，並等待香蕉區的下一個階段，現在一直延伸到2026年。

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