Real Vision Founder and CEO Raoul Pal Updates BTC, ETH and SOL Market Cycles

On Tuesday, Real Vision Founder and CEO Raoul Pal forecasted that the current cryptocurrency bull market cycle, initially expected to peak in 2025

Real Vision Founder and CEO predicts that the current cryptocurrency bull market cycle, initially anticipated to peak in 2025, may extend into 2026 due to a prolonged business cycle.

What Happened: Pal addressed the chaotic market conditions, providing reassurance to crypto investors navigating a period of sharp volatility. He explained why he believes the cycle's expansion aligns with broader economic indicators, shifting from his earlier timeframe of a 2025 peak.

The seasoned macro analyst highlighted that the business cycle's sluggish pace below the key 50 threshold on the ISM survey—a measure of economic activity—is now showing signs of expansion, pushing out the timeline for the crypto market's peak.

"My view is that the business cycle is taking a long time below 50, it's starting to expand now.

That has probably extended the cycle into 2026," he stated, clarifying that this shift is not yet a firm prediction but a structural observation based on which way the data is flowing.

He ties this extension to improving financial conditions, including a weakening U.S. dollar and anticipated lower interest rates, which he expects will fuel risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins.

Pal highlighted Bitcoin's recent retreat from a high of $110,000 to $80,000 and Solana's 53% drop as typical volatility within a bull market, advising patience as markets adjust.

He referenced historical patterns, such as the 2017 cycle under Trump's first term, where a similar dollar-driven economic slowdown preceded a massive crypto surge that varied massively from March 2017's lows to August 2017 highs.

Also Read: Bitcoin Bottom Will Be $70,000 ‘At Worst,’ Arthur Hayes Says

Why It Matters: Pal's analysis, backed by Global M2 charts showing money supply growth, suggests that after a choppy period through mid-March, prices could accelerate in April, May, and June 2025, with further upside into 2026.

Pal's framework, which he termed the "don't f*ck this up" thesis, focused on smart leverage, overexposure to small altcoins, and a portfolio core of majors like Bitcoin BTC/USD, Ethereum ETH/USD, and Solana SOL/USD.

He highlighted Solana's oversold status versus Global M2 as a buying opportunity, predicting it will outperform Bitcoin and Ethereum toward the cycle's end.

"Solana should outperform Bitcoin for the rest of this cycle and Ethereum too, with SUI outperforming Solana," he asserted, dismissing claims of Solana's demise amid a meme coin collapse, rendering them "bulls**t."

Drawing on extensive research from Global Macro Investor, Pal connected crypto's trajectory to macro drivers like the ISM survey, which he expects to climb above 60, potentially pushing Bitcoin past $300,000.

He also noted forward-looking indicators, such as ISM New Orders Less Inventories rising sharply, signaling economic growth within three months that could lift crypto prices.

Despite seven 20%+ pullbacks in this cycle yielding 600% returns from the low, Pal stressed resilience, urging investors to "breathe deeply" and await the next phase of the banana zone, now stretched into 2026.

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