雷·达利奥（Ray Dalio

2025年4月13日，美国亿万富翁和最大对冲基金的创始人布里奇沃特同事雷·达利奥（Ray Dalio）告诉美国全国广播公司（NBC）的新闻记者，“现在我们正处于决策点，并且非常接近衰退。”

A U.S. billionaire and founder of the biggest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, Ray Dalio, told NBC’s Meet the Press reporter that “right now we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession.”

美国亿万富翁和最大对冲基金的创始人布里奇沃特同事雷·达利奥（Ray Dalio）告诉美国全国广播公司（NBC）的《见面》记者，“现在我们正处于决策点，并且非常接近经济衰退。”

Still, he is worried about “something worse than a recession.” He shared his view of a possible upcoming catastrophe and outlined what could be a remedy.

尽管如此，他还是担心“比经济衰退还要糟糕。”他分享了他对即将发生的灾难的看法，并概述了一种补救措施。

“Worse than a recession”

“比经济衰退还糟”

The Meet the Press reporter asked Dalio to explain what he meant when he said that the tariff problem is a symptom of a greater problem. Dalio indicated several simultaneous issues at once. According to Dalio, these problems are the growing government debt that changes the American monetary order and the internal political conflict that changes the American political order.

会议记者会议记者要求达利奥（Dalio）解释他说关税问题是一个更大问题的症状时的意思。达利奥（Dalio）同时指出了几个同时问题。根据达利奥（Dalio）的说法，这些问题是政府债务日益严重，改变了美国货币秩序和内部政治冲突，改变了美国政治秩序。

On top of it, Dalio said that external conflicts, changing technologies, and natural disasters (like floods, pandemics, etc.) are the factors contributing to instability. He said that tariffs are carried out in a chaotic and “very disruptive” way, lacking quality negotiations, pragmatism, and stability. However, Dalio noted that the outcome would be clear in 90 days, probably due to a pause in tariffs applied by the Trump Administration.

最重要的是，达利奥（Dalio）表示，外部冲突，不断变化的技术和自然灾害（例如洪水，大流行病等）是导致不稳定的因素。他说，关税是以混乱且“非常破坏性的”方式进行的，缺乏质量谈判，实用主义和稳定性。但是，达利奥（Dalio）指出，结果将在90天内很明显，这可能是由于特朗普政府申请的关税暂停。

When asked about the probability of a recession, Dalio answered that the recession per se is not something terrible; it’s just two consecutive quarters of negative GDP, while the challenges that America is facing now are more profound, and they may change the domestic and monetary order in the U.S. Dalio compared the upcoming crisis with the 1930s, the Great Depression times.

当被问及经济衰退的可能性时，达利奥回答说，经济衰退本身并不可怕。这仅是连续两个季度的负GDP，而美国现在面临的挑战更为深刻，它们可能会改变美国达利奥的国内和货币秩序，将即将到来的危机与1930年代的危机（大萧条时期）相比。

According to Dalio, if the budget deficit is not regulated, the country will face a supply and demand problem for the U.S. debt. Potentially, it may break the monetary system down. If it happens combined with other challenges mentioned above, the country may slip into a more severe state than it had during the Great Depression years or the 2008 financial crisis. Dalio warned the listeners about the possible internal conflict, saying that “it is not the normal democracy as we know it.”

根据达利奥（Dalio）的说法，如果不监管预算赤字，该国将面临美国债务的供求问题。可能，它可能会破坏货币制度。如果发生在上面提到的其他挑战中，该国可能会比大萧条时期或2008年金融危机更为严重。达利奥（Dalio）警告听众可能发生的内部冲突，称“这不是我们所知道的正常民主国家。”

Additionally, Dalio doesn’t exclude the possibility of America’s involvement in an international military conflict. The new crisis may disrupt the world order created in 1945.

此外，达利奥不排除美国参与国际军事冲突的可能性。新的危机可能会破坏1945年创造的世界秩序。

“Tariffs are only a symptom.”

“关税只是一种症状。”

In the Meet The Press interview, Dalio didn’t provide any details on how he sees the future crisis. Days before this interview, Dalio shared a popular long X post titled “Don’t Make the Mistake of Thinking That What’s Now Happening is Mostly About Tariffs.” In the first lines of the post, Dalio stresses that tariffs are only a symptom of the bigger issue. The large debt is what sets a dangerous imbalance in the world’s economy.

在《会议》媒体采访中，达利奥没有提供有关他如何看待未来危机的任何细节。在这次采访的前几天，达利奥（Dalio）分享了一个流行的X帖子，标题为“不要误以为现在发生的事情主要是关于关税的。”在帖子的第一行中，达利奥强调关税只是更大问题的症状。巨额债务是在世界经济中造成危险的失衡。

Here’s what he wrote about the instability of the current world order:

这是他写的关于当前世界秩序不稳定的文章：

> The old monetary/economic order in which countries like China manufacture inexpensively, sell to Americans, and acquire American debt assets, and Americans borrow money from countries like China to make those purchases and build up huge debt liabilities will have to change. These obviously unsustainable circumstances are made even more so by the fact that they have led to American manufacturing deteriorating, which both hollows out middle-class jobs in the U.S. and requires America to import needed items from a country that it is increasingly seeing as an enemy.

>旧的货币/经济秩序，中国等国家廉价地生产，向美国人出售并获得美国债务资产，美国人向中国等国家借钱来进行这些购买并建立巨大的债务负债必须改变。这些显然不可持续的情况使他们变得更加如此，因为它们导致美国制造业恶化，这两者都陷入了美国的中产阶级工作，并要求美国从一个越来越多地看到它作为敌人的国家进口所需的物品。

The only positive possible outcome of Trump’s tariff policy is that it will spark technology development in the U.S. by bringing manufacturers back to the country. However, due to other factors, the U.S. is going to go through several disruptive processes. According to Dalio, the old system cannot survive, and it’s up to the government to let it go the easy or hard way.

特朗普关税政策的唯一积极可能的结果是，它将通过将制造商带回该国来激发美国的技术开发。但是，由于其他因素，美国将经历几个破坏性的过程。根据达利奥（Dalio）的说法，旧制度无法生存，政府必须让它变得轻松或艰难。

Despite the fact that Dalio is very critical of the way the tariffs were deployed, some of his commenters still found a way to see Trump’s policy as a remedy for the crisis described by Dalio. However, the billionaire offers his own vision of how to stop the crisis.

尽管达利奥（Dalio）对关税的部署方式非常批评，但他的一些评论员仍然找到了一种将特朗普的政策视为达利奥（Dalio）描述的危机的方法。但是，亿万富翁提供了自己的愿景，即如何制止危机。

Can Bitcoin be a solution?

比特币可以成为解决方案吗？

Not only does Dalio see various challenges, but he also outlines the method to prevent the “worse than a recession” crisis from coming to life. According to Bridgewater Associates founder, Congress should take a “3% pledge” and reduce the budget deficit to 3%.

达利奥（Dalio）不仅看到了各种挑战，而且他还概述了防止“比经济衰退更糟”危机的方法。根据布里奇沃特（Bridgewater）的创始人的说法，国会应采取“ 3％的承诺”，并将预算赤字减少到3％。

Although Dalio is very concerned with the current problems, he still believes there is a way out. If the government doesn’t take action asap, Dalio thinks the deficit will increase to 7% and trigger other negative factors that will eventually disrupt the American monetary system.

尽管达利奥（Dalio）非常关注当前的问题，但他仍然认为有出路。如果政府不尽快采取行动，达利奥认为赤字将增加到7％，并触发其他负面因素，这些因素最终会破坏美国的货币体系。