雷·達利奧（Ray Dalio

2025年4月13日，美國億萬富翁和最大對沖基金的創始人布里奇沃特同事雷·達利奧（Ray Dalio）告訴美國全國廣播公司（NBC）的新聞記者，“現在我們正處於決策點，並且非常接近衰退。”

A U.S. billionaire and founder of the biggest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, Ray Dalio, told NBC’s Meet the Press reporter that “right now we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession.”

美國億萬富翁和最大對沖基金的創始人布里奇沃特同事雷·達利奧（Ray Dalio）告訴美國全國廣播公司（NBC）的《見面》記者，“現在我們正處於決策點，並且非常接近經濟衰退。”

Still, he is worried about “something worse than a recession.” He shared his view of a possible upcoming catastrophe and outlined what could be a remedy.

儘管如此，他還是擔心“比經濟衰退還要糟糕。”他分享了他對即將發生的災難的看法，並概述了一種補救措施。

“Worse than a recession”

“比經濟衰退還糟”

The Meet the Press reporter asked Dalio to explain what he meant when he said that the tariff problem is a symptom of a greater problem. Dalio indicated several simultaneous issues at once. According to Dalio, these problems are the growing government debt that changes the American monetary order and the internal political conflict that changes the American political order.

會議記者會議記者要求達利奧（Dalio）解釋他說關稅問題是一個更大問題的症狀時的意思。達利奧（Dalio）同時指出了幾個同時問題。根據達利奧（Dalio）的說法，這些問題是政府債務日益嚴重，改變了美國貨幣秩序和內部政治衝突，改變了美國政治秩序。

On top of it, Dalio said that external conflicts, changing technologies, and natural disasters (like floods, pandemics, etc.) are the factors contributing to instability. He said that tariffs are carried out in a chaotic and “very disruptive” way, lacking quality negotiations, pragmatism, and stability. However, Dalio noted that the outcome would be clear in 90 days, probably due to a pause in tariffs applied by the Trump Administration.

最重要的是，達利奧（Dalio）表示，外部衝突，不斷變化的技術和自然災害（例如洪水，大流行病等）是導致不穩定的因素。他說，關稅是以混亂且“非常破壞性的”方式進行的，缺乏質量談判，實用主義和穩定性。但是，達利奧（Dalio）指出，結果將在90天內很明顯，這可能是由於特朗普政府申請的關稅暫停。

When asked about the probability of a recession, Dalio answered that the recession per se is not something terrible; it’s just two consecutive quarters of negative GDP, while the challenges that America is facing now are more profound, and they may change the domestic and monetary order in the U.S. Dalio compared the upcoming crisis with the 1930s, the Great Depression times.

當被問及經濟衰退的可能性時，達利奧回答說，經濟衰退本身並不可怕。這僅是連續兩個季度的負GDP，而美國現在面臨的挑戰更為深刻，它們可能會改變美國達利奧的國內和貨幣秩序，將即將到來的危機與1930年代的危機（大蕭條時期）相比。

According to Dalio, if the budget deficit is not regulated, the country will face a supply and demand problem for the U.S. debt. Potentially, it may break the monetary system down. If it happens combined with other challenges mentioned above, the country may slip into a more severe state than it had during the Great Depression years or the 2008 financial crisis. Dalio warned the listeners about the possible internal conflict, saying that “it is not the normal democracy as we know it.”

根據達利奧（Dalio）的說法，如果不監管預算赤字，該國將面臨美國債務的供求問題。可能，它可能會破壞貨幣制度。如果發生在上面提到的其他挑戰中，該國可能會比大蕭條時期或2008年金融危機更為嚴重。達利奧（Dalio）警告聽眾可能發生的內部衝突，稱“這不是我們所知道的正常民主國家。”

Additionally, Dalio doesn’t exclude the possibility of America’s involvement in an international military conflict. The new crisis may disrupt the world order created in 1945.

此外，達利奧不排除美國參與國際軍事衝突的可能性。新的危機可能會破壞1945年創造的世界秩序。

“Tariffs are only a symptom.”

“關稅只是一種症狀。”

In the Meet The Press interview, Dalio didn’t provide any details on how he sees the future crisis. Days before this interview, Dalio shared a popular long X post titled “Don’t Make the Mistake of Thinking That What’s Now Happening is Mostly About Tariffs.” In the first lines of the post, Dalio stresses that tariffs are only a symptom of the bigger issue. The large debt is what sets a dangerous imbalance in the world’s economy.

在《會議》媒體採訪中，達利奧沒有提供有關他如何看待未來危機的任何細節。在這次採訪的前幾天，達利奧（Dalio）分享了一個流行的X帖子，標題為“不要誤以為現在發生的事情主要是關於關稅的。”在帖子的第一行中，達利奧強調關稅只是更大問題的症狀。巨額債務是在世界經濟中造成危險的失衡。

Here’s what he wrote about the instability of the current world order:

這是他寫的關於當前世界秩序不穩定的文章：

> The old monetary/economic order in which countries like China manufacture inexpensively, sell to Americans, and acquire American debt assets, and Americans borrow money from countries like China to make those purchases and build up huge debt liabilities will have to change. These obviously unsustainable circumstances are made even more so by the fact that they have led to American manufacturing deteriorating, which both hollows out middle-class jobs in the U.S. and requires America to import needed items from a country that it is increasingly seeing as an enemy.

>舊的貨幣/經濟秩序，中國等國家廉價地生產，向美國人出售並獲得美國債務資產，美國人向中國等國家借錢來進行這些購買並建立巨大的債務負債必須改變。這些顯然不可持續的情況使他們變得更加如此，因為它們導緻美國製造業惡化，這兩者都陷入了美國的中產階級工作，並要求美國從一個越來越多地看到它作為敵人的國家進口所需的物品。

The only positive possible outcome of Trump’s tariff policy is that it will spark technology development in the U.S. by bringing manufacturers back to the country. However, due to other factors, the U.S. is going to go through several disruptive processes. According to Dalio, the old system cannot survive, and it’s up to the government to let it go the easy or hard way.

特朗普關稅政策的唯一積極可能的結果是，它將通過將製造商帶回該國來激髮美國的技術開發。但是，由於其他因素，美國將經歷幾個破壞性的過程。根據達利奧（Dalio）的說法，舊制度無法生存，政府必須讓它變得輕鬆或艱難。

Despite the fact that Dalio is very critical of the way the tariffs were deployed, some of his commenters still found a way to see Trump’s policy as a remedy for the crisis described by Dalio. However, the billionaire offers his own vision of how to stop the crisis.

儘管達利奧（Dalio）對關稅的部署方式非常批評，但他的一些評論員仍然找到了一種將特朗普的政策視為達利奧（Dalio）描述的危機的方法。但是，億萬富翁提供了自己的願景，即如何制止危機。

Can Bitcoin be a solution?

比特幣可以成為解決方案嗎？

Not only does Dalio see various challenges, but he also outlines the method to prevent the “worse than a recession” crisis from coming to life. According to Bridgewater Associates founder, Congress should take a “3% pledge” and reduce the budget deficit to 3%.

達利奧（Dalio）不僅看到了各種挑戰，而且他還概述了防止“比經濟衰退更糟”危機的方法。根據布里奇沃特（Bridgewater）的創始人的說法，國會應採取“ 3％的承諾”，並將預算赤字減少到3％。

Although Dalio is very concerned with the current problems, he still believes there is a way out. If the government doesn’t take action asap, Dalio thinks the deficit will increase to 7% and trigger other negative factors that will eventually disrupt the American monetary system.

儘管達利奧（Dalio）非常關注當前的問題，但他仍然認為有出路。如果政府不盡快採取行動，達利奧認為赤字將增加到7％，並觸發其他負面因素，這些因素最終會破壞美國的貨幣體系。