Vaneck提出“ BitBonds”，以使比特幣（BTC）獲利，因為美國財政部試圖完善融資策略

Vaneck的數字資產研究負責

A hybrid debt instrument tying U.S. Treasuries with Bitcoin (BTC) exposure could help manage the government’s looming $14 trillion refinancing requirement, according to VanEck.

Vaneck表示，一種混合​​債務工具將美國國債與比特幣（BTC）的風險息息相關，可以幫助管理政府迫在眉睫的14萬億美元再融資要求。

The concept, presented at the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Summit, aims to address sovereign funding needs and investor demand for inflation protection.

在戰略比特幣儲備峰會上提出的概念旨在滿足主權資金需求和投資者對通貨膨脹保護的需求。

As part of the discussion, VanEck's head of digital assets research, Matthew Sigel, proposed “BitBonds”—10-year securities with 90% traditional U.S. Treasury exposure and 10% Bitcoin, funded by the bond sale proceeds.

作為討論的一部分，Vaneck的數字資產研究負責人Matthew Sigel提出了“ BitBonds” -10年證券，擁有90％的美國國庫券，由債券銷售收益資助為10％的比特幣。

At maturity, investors would receive the full value of the U.S. Treasury portion, amounting to $90 on a $100 bond, plus the current value of the Bitcoin allocation.

在到期時，投資者將獲得美國財政部部分的全部價值，總計100美元的債券，再加上比特幣分配的當前價值。

Moreover, investors would capture 100% of Bitcoin’s upside until their yield-to-maturity reaches 4.5%. After that threshold, any gains would be split between the government and bondholders.

此外，投資者將捕獲比特幣上漲的100％，直到其成熟度達到4.5％。在這個閾值之後，任何收益都將在政府和債券持有人之間分配。

This structure is designed to align the interests of bond investors, who are increasingly seeking protection from dollar debasement and asset inflation, with the Treasury’s need to refinance at competitive rates.

這種結構旨在使債券投資者的利益保持一致，債券投資者越來越多地尋求免受美元貶值和資產通貨膨脹的保護，以及財政部需要以有競爭力的利率再融資。

“It’s an aligned solution for mismatched incentives,” Sigel said.

Sigel說：“這是一個不匹配激勵措施的解決方案。”

Investor breakeven

投資者收支平衡

According to Sigel’s projections, the investor breakeven for BitBonds depends on the bond’s fixed coupon and Bitcoin’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR).

根據Sigel的預測，BitBonds的投資者取消了債券的固定優惠券和比特幣的複合年增長率（CAGR）。

For bonds with a 4% coupon, the breakeven BTC CAGR is 0%. However, lower-yielding versions have higher breakeven thresholds: 13.1% CAGR for 2% coupon bonds and 16.6% for 1% coupon bonds.

對於擁有4％優惠券的債券，收支平衡的BTC CAGR為0％。但是，較低的收益版本具有較高的盈虧平衡閾值：2％息票債券的複合年增長率為13.1％，1％的息票債券為16.6％。

If Bitcoin CAGR remains within the 30% to 50% range, modeled returns escalate sharply across all coupon tiers, with investor gains reaching up to 282%.

如果比特幣CAGR保持在30％至50％的範圍內，則建模的回報率在所有優惠券層中急劇升級，投資者的收益率達到282％。

Sigel said BitBonds would be a “convex bet” for investors who believe in Bitcoin as the instrument would offer asymmetric upside while retaining a base layer of risk-free return. However, their structure means investors bear the full downside of Bitcoin exposure.

Sigel表示，對於相信比特幣的投資者來說，BitBonds將是一個“凸投注”，因為該工具將提供不對稱的上空，同時保留無風險收益的基礎層。但是，他們的結構意味著投資者承擔了比特幣暴露的全部缺點。

Lower coupon bonds could generate steep negative returns in scenarios where BTC loses value. For example, a 1% coupon BitBond would lose 20% to 46%, depending on the level of Bitcoin underperformance.

在BTC失去價值的情況下，低優惠券債券可能會產生陡峭的負回報。例如，根據比特幣的表現不佳的水平，1％的優惠券Bitbond將損失20％至46％。

Treasury benefits

財政部福利

From the U.S. government’s perspective, the core benefit of BitBonds would be lower borrowing costs. Even if Bitcoin appreciates modestly or not at all, the Treasury will save on interest payments compared to traditional 4% fixed-rate bonds.

從美國政府的角度來看，BitBonds的核心利益將是較低的借貸成本。即使比特幣對謙虛或根本不欣賞，與傳統的4％固定利率債券相比，財政部也可以節省利息。

According to Sigel’s analysis, the government’s breakeven interest rate is approximately 2.6%. Issuing bonds with coupons below that level would reduce annual debt service, generating savings even in flat or declining Bitcoin scenarios.

根據Sigel的分析，政府的收支平衡利率約為2.6％。以低於該級別的優惠券發行債券將減少年度債務服務，即使在比特幣方案下降或下降的比特幣方案也能節省下來。

Issuing $100 billion in BitBonds with a 1% coupon and no BTC upside would save the government $13 billion over the bond’s life. If Bitcoin achieves a 30% CAGR, the same issuance could yield over $40 billion in additional value, primarily from the shared Bitcoin gains.

發行1000億美元的Bitbonds，票價為1％，沒有BTC上漲，將為政府節省130億美元的債券的壽命。如果比特幣達到30％的複合年增長率，則相同的發行可能會產生超過400億美元的額外價值，主要來自共享比特幣的增長。

This approach would also create a differentiated sovereign bond class, offering the U.S. asymmetric upside exposure to Bitcoin and reducing its dollar-denominated obligations.

這種方法還將創建一個差異化的主權債券類別，從而提供美國非對稱上行幣對比特幣的上行接觸並減少其美元計價的義務。

“BTC upside just sweetens the deal. Worst case: cheap funding. Best case: long-vol exposure to the hardest asset on Earth,” added Sigel.

Sigel補充說：“ BTC的上升空間恰好使交易變得甜美。最糟糕的情況：廉價資金。最佳案例：長期暴露於地球上最艱難的資產。”

The breakeven BTC CAGR for the government increases with higher bond coupons, reaching 14.3% for 3% coupon BitBonds and 16.3% for 4% coupon versions. In adverse BTC scenarios, the Treasury would only incur a loss if it issued higher-coupon bonds while BTC underperformed.

債券優惠券的較高債券優惠券的增壓BTC複合年增長率提高，3％的優惠券BitBonds的14.3％，4％優惠券版本為16.3％。在不利的BTC方案中，國庫只有在BTC表現不佳的情況下發行高速公路債券時才會造成損失。

Trade-offs on issuance complexity and risk allocation

在發行複雜性和風險分配方面的權衡

Despite the potential benefits, VanEck’s presentation acknowledges the structure’s shortcomings. Investors take on Bitcoin’s downside without full upside participation, and lower-coupon bonds become unattractive unless Bitcoin performs exceptionally well.

儘管有潛在的好處，Vaneck的演講仍承認了結構的缺點。投資者在沒有充分的上行參與的情況下承擔了比特幣的下行，除非比特幣表現出色，否則下型債券將變得沒有吸引力。

Structurally, the Treasury would also need to issue more debt to compensate for the 10% of proceeds used to purchase Bitcoin. Every $100 billion in funding would require an additional 11.1% to offset the BTC allocation.

從結構上講，財政部還需要發行更多的債務，以彌補購買比特幣的10％。每1000億美元的資金將需要額外的11.1％才能抵消BTC分配。

The proposal suggests possible design improvements, including downside protection to shield investors from sharp BTC declines partially.

該提案提出了可能的設計改進，包括避免投資者免受Sharp BTC的下降措施，部分下降了。