距离美国总统大选还有不到两周的时间，空气中的不确定性越来越大。

投资者想知道如何配置资金，为可能出现的大幅波动和市场变化做好准备。

As the U.S. presidential election draws near, there’s a growing sense of uncertainty in the air. Investors are left wondering how to best position their money, bracing for the possibility of significant market shifts and volatility.

随着美国总统大选的临近，空气中的不确定性越来越大。投资者想知道如何最好地配置他们的资金，并为可能出现的重大市场变化和波动做好准备。

While some hedge funds are making bold moves on so-called “Trump trades,” we at U.S. Global Investors see things differently.

尽管一些对冲基金在所谓的“特朗普交易”上采取大胆举措，但我们美国全球投资者却有不同的看法。

In fact, I share billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones’ recent outlook on gold and Bitcoin (which validates what I have been writing about for many years). Like him, we currently favor alternative assets as the smart play going forward.

事实上，我分享了亿万富翁对冲基金经理 Paul Tudor Jones 最近对黄金和比特币的看法（这证实了我多年来所写的内容）。和他一样，我们目前也青睐另类资产作为未来的明智选择。

It’s not that we’re betting against stocks or the economy, which we believe will do well over time no matter who wins the White House next month. Nevertheless, the writing is clearly on the wall: Ballooning U.S. debt and geopolitical tensions all point to the need for a strong hedge.

这并不是说我们在做空股市或经济，我们相信，无论谁下个月入主白宫，随着时间的推移，股市或经济都会表现良好。尽管如此，不祥之兆已经显而易见：不断膨胀的美国债务和地缘政治紧张局势都表明需要进行强有力的对冲。

The Ballooning U.S. Debt Problem

不断膨胀的美国债务问题

You won’t be surprised to read that the U.S. debt situation has spiraled out of control. Just 25 years ago, the national debt was a little under 60% of GDP. Today, that rate has doubled to 120%.

当你得知美国债务状况已经失控时，你不会感到惊讶。就在 25 年前，国家债务占 GDP 的比例略低于 60%。如今，这一比例已翻倍，达到 120%。

According to Paul Tudor Jones, founder and CEO of Tudor Investment Corp., this puts the U.S. in a precarious position—one that’s unsustainable in the long run unless serious action is taken to rein in government spending.

都铎投资公司(Tudor Investment Corp.)创始人兼首席执行官保罗·都铎·琼斯(Paul Tudor Jones)表示，这使美国处于不稳定的境地——从长远来看，除非采取严厉行动控制政府支出，否则这种状况是不可持续的。

We all know that politicians have a knack for promising more spending (in the Democrats’ case) or tax cuts (in the Republicans’ case) to keep voters happy. It’s easy to see why Jones is concerned that either approach will only exacerbate the debt problem. As he pointed out, the U.S. is “going to be broke really quick unless we get serious about dealing with our spending issues.”

我们都知道，政客们有办法承诺增加支出（对于民主党来说）或减税（对于共和党来说）来让选民满意。很容易理解为什么琼斯担心这两种方法都只会加剧债务问题。正如他指出的那样，美国“除非我们认真对待我们的支出问题，否则很快就会崩溃。”

That’s not just a dramatic soundbite—it’s a reality check. The federal deficit for 2024 soared above $1.8 trillion, up 8% from the previous year. Meanwhile, the debt burden, which is rapidly nearing $36 trillion, shows no signs of easing.

这不仅仅是一个戏剧性的片段——这是一个现实检验。 2024年联邦赤字飙升至1.8万亿美元以上，比上年增长8%。与此同时，迅速接近36万亿美元的债务负担却没有任何减轻的迹象。

All Roads Lead to Inflation

所有道路都会导致通货膨胀

When the government keeps printing money to finance its spending, the inevitable result is inflation. And in times of inflation, the purchasing power of traditional assets like bonds erodes. That’s why Jones favors assets that perform well in inflationary environments such as gold, silver, commodities and Bitcoin. I agree wholeheartedly with this assessment.

当政府不断印钞来为其支出提供资金时，不可避免的结果就是通货膨胀。在通货膨胀时期，债券等传统资产的购买力会下降。这就是为什么琼斯青睐在通胀环境下表现良好的资产，如黄金、白银、大宗商品和比特币。我完全同意这个评价。

Think about it: Why would you want to own fixed-income assets when interest rates are being adjusted and are likely to be lower than the inflation rate? Long-dated bonds are particularly vulnerable. U.S. banks, remember, are still dealing with billions of dollars in unrealized losses on their fixed-income positions. According to Florida Atlantic University’s bank screener, Bank of America’s unrealized losses on held-to-maturity investments in the first quarter were a staggering $110 billion, more than any other U.S. institution by far.

想一想：当利率正在调整且可能低于通胀率时，你为什么要拥有固定收益资产？长期债券尤其脆弱。请记住，美国银行的固定收益头寸仍在处理数十亿美元的未实现损失。根据佛罗里达大西洋大学的银行筛选，美国银行第一季度持有至到期投资的未实现损失达到惊人的 1100 亿美元，迄今为止超过任何其他美国机构。

The Fed will likely try to “inflate” its way out of this mess, meaning it will keep nominal interest rates lower than inflation to support economic growth. For investors, this means that preserving wealth will require smart positioning in alternative assets.

美联储可能会试图通过“通货膨胀”摆脱困境，这意味着它将保持名义利率低于通胀，以支持经济增长。对于投资者来说，这意味着保护财富需要明智地配置另类资产。

Jones is already betting against the bond market— “I am clearly not going to own any fixed-income,” he told CNBC this week—and I believe many investors would be wise to take a similar approach.

琼斯已经在做空债券市场——“我显然不会拥有任何固定收益，”他本周告诉 CNBC——而且我相信许多投资者采取类似的做法是明智的。

The Case for Gold and Silver

黄金和白银的情况

Let’s start with gold and silver. Both have been go-to haven assets for centuries, and for good reason. When geopolitical tensions have risen, when inflation has reared its ugly head and/or when there’s been uncertainty in the markets, investors have flocked to gold and silver.

让我们从黄金和白银开始。几个世纪以来，两者一直是首选避险资产，这是有充分理由的。当地缘政治紧张局势加剧、通货膨胀抬头和/或市场存在不确定性时，投资者纷纷涌向黄金和白银。

This year is no exception. We’ve seen gold shatter records multiple times in 2024, with prices rising more than 32% year-to-date, the metal’s best annual growth since 1979.

今年也不例外。我们已经看到黄金在 2024 年多次打破记录，年初至今价格上涨超过 32%，这是该金属自 1979 年以来的最佳年度增长。

According to data from the World Gold Council, gold has consistently outperformed both inflation and the growth rate of the world economy. From 1971 to 2023, gold’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was 8%, compared to 4% for the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) and 7.8% for global GDP growth.

世界黄金协会的数据显示，黄金的表现一直跑赢通胀和世界经济增长率。从 1971 年到 2023 年，黄金的复合年增长率 (CAGR) 为 8%，而美国消费者价格指数 (CPI) 为 4%，全球 GDP 增长率为 7.8%。

Silver, often dubbed the “poor man’s gold,” is another asset that deserves attention. With its industrial applications, especially in the green energy sector, silver has strong potential for future growth. According to one projection, the clean energy transition could dramatically increase the demand for silver in photovoltaic (PV) technology, potentially consuming between 85% and a jaw-dropping 98% of current global silver reserves by 2050.

白银通常被称为“穷人的黄金”，是另一种值得关注的资产。凭借其工业应用，特别是在绿色能源领域，白银未来具有强大的增长潜力。根据一项预测，清洁能源转型可能会大幅增加光伏 (PV) 技术对白银的需求，到 2050 年可能会消耗当前全球白银储备的 85% 到 98%。

Bitcoin: The

比特币：