距離美國總統大選還有不到兩週的時間，空氣中的不確定性越來越大。

投資人想知道如何配置資金，為可能的大幅波動和市場變化做好準備。

As the U.S. presidential election draws near, there’s a growing sense of uncertainty in the air. Investors are left wondering how to best position their money, bracing for the possibility of significant market shifts and volatility.

隨著美國總統大選的臨近，空氣中的不確定性越來越大。投資者想知道如何最好地配置他們的資金，並為可能出現的重大市場變化和波動做好準備。

While some hedge funds are making bold moves on so-called “Trump trades,” we at U.S. Global Investors see things differently.

雖然一些對沖基金在所謂的「川普交易」上採取大膽行動，但我們美國全球投資者卻有不同的看法。

In fact, I share billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones’ recent outlook on gold and Bitcoin (which validates what I have been writing about for many years). Like him, we currently favor alternative assets as the smart play going forward.

事實上，我分享了億萬富翁對沖基金經理 Paul Tudor Jones 最近對黃金和比特幣的看法（這證實了我多年來所寫的內容）。和他一樣，我們目前也青睞另類資產作為未來的明智選擇。

It’s not that we’re betting against stocks or the economy, which we believe will do well over time no matter who wins the White House next month. Nevertheless, the writing is clearly on the wall: Ballooning U.S. debt and geopolitical tensions all point to the need for a strong hedge.

這並不是說我們在做空股市或經濟，我們相信，無論誰下個月入主白宮，隨著時間的推移，股市或經濟都會表現良好。儘管如此，不祥之兆已經顯而易見：不斷膨脹的美國債務和地緣政治緊張局勢都表明需要進行強有力的對沖。

The Ballooning U.S. Debt Problem

不斷膨脹的美國債務問題

You won’t be surprised to read that the U.S. debt situation has spiraled out of control. Just 25 years ago, the national debt was a little under 60% of GDP. Today, that rate has doubled to 120%.

當你得知美國債務狀況已經失控時，你不會感到驚訝。就在 25 年前，國家債務佔 GDP 的比例略低於 60%。如今，這一比例已翻倍，達到 120%。

According to Paul Tudor Jones, founder and CEO of Tudor Investment Corp., this puts the U.S. in a precarious position—one that’s unsustainable in the long run unless serious action is taken to rein in government spending.

都鐸投資公司(Tudor Investment Corp.)創辦人兼執行長保羅·都鐸·瓊斯(Paul Tudor Jones)表示，這使美國處於不穩定的境地——從長遠來看，除非採取嚴厲行動控制政府支出，否則這種狀況是不可持續的。

We all know that politicians have a knack for promising more spending (in the Democrats’ case) or tax cuts (in the Republicans’ case) to keep voters happy. It’s easy to see why Jones is concerned that either approach will only exacerbate the debt problem. As he pointed out, the U.S. is “going to be broke really quick unless we get serious about dealing with our spending issues.”

我們都知道，政客有辦法承諾增加支出（對民主黨來說）或減稅（對共和黨來說）來讓選民滿意。很容易理解為什麼瓊斯擔心這兩種方法都只會加劇債務。正如他指出的那樣，美國“除非我們認真對待我們的支出問題，否則很快就會崩潰。”

That’s not just a dramatic soundbite—it’s a reality check. The federal deficit for 2024 soared above $1.8 trillion, up 8% from the previous year. Meanwhile, the debt burden, which is rapidly nearing $36 trillion, shows no signs of easing.

這不僅僅是一個戲劇性的片段——這是一個現實檢驗。 2024年聯邦赤字飆升至1.8兆美元以上，較前一年成長8%。同時，迅速接近36兆美元的債務負擔卻沒有任何減輕的跡象。

All Roads Lead to Inflation

所有道路都會導致通貨膨脹

When the government keeps printing money to finance its spending, the inevitable result is inflation. And in times of inflation, the purchasing power of traditional assets like bonds erodes. That’s why Jones favors assets that perform well in inflationary environments such as gold, silver, commodities and Bitcoin. I agree wholeheartedly with this assessment.

當政府不斷印鈔票來為其支出提供資金時，不可避免的結果就是通貨膨脹。在通貨膨脹時期，債券等傳統資產的購買力會下降。這就是為什麼瓊斯青睞在通膨環境下表現良好的資產，如黃金、白銀、大宗商品和比特幣。我完全同意這個評價。

Think about it: Why would you want to own fixed-income assets when interest rates are being adjusted and are likely to be lower than the inflation rate? Long-dated bonds are particularly vulnerable. U.S. banks, remember, are still dealing with billions of dollars in unrealized losses on their fixed-income positions. According to Florida Atlantic University’s bank screener, Bank of America’s unrealized losses on held-to-maturity investments in the first quarter were a staggering $110 billion, more than any other U.S. institution by far.

想想看：當利率正在調整且可能低於通膨率時，為什麼要擁有固定收益資產？長期債券尤其容易受到影響。請記住，美國銀行的固定收益部位仍在處理數十億美元的未實現損失。根據佛羅裡達大西洋大學的銀行篩選，美國銀行第一季持有至到期投資的未實現損失達到驚人的 1,100 億美元，迄今超過任何其他美國機構。

The Fed will likely try to “inflate” its way out of this mess, meaning it will keep nominal interest rates lower than inflation to support economic growth. For investors, this means that preserving wealth will require smart positioning in alternative assets.

聯準會可能會試圖透過「通貨膨脹」擺脫困境，這意味著它將保持名義利率低於通膨，以支持經濟成長。對投資人來說，這意味著保護財富需要明智地配置另類資產。

Jones is already betting against the bond market— “I am clearly not going to own any fixed-income,” he told CNBC this week—and I believe many investors would be wise to take a similar approach.

瓊斯已經在做空債券市場——「我顯然不會擁有任何固定收益，」他本週告訴 CNBC——而且我相信許多投資者採取類似的做法是明智的。

The Case for Gold and Silver

黃金和白銀的情況

Let’s start with gold and silver. Both have been go-to haven assets for centuries, and for good reason. When geopolitical tensions have risen, when inflation has reared its ugly head and/or when there’s been uncertainty in the markets, investors have flocked to gold and silver.

讓我們從黃金和白銀開始。幾個世紀以來，兩者一直是首選避險資產，這是有充分理由的。當地緣政治緊張局勢加劇、通貨膨脹抬頭和/或市場存在不確定性時，投資者紛紛湧向黃金和白銀。

This year is no exception. We’ve seen gold shatter records multiple times in 2024, with prices rising more than 32% year-to-date, the metal’s best annual growth since 1979.

今年也不例外。我們已經看到黃金在 2024 年多次打破記錄，年初至今價格上漲超過 32%，這是該金屬自 1979 年以來的最佳年度增長。

According to data from the World Gold Council, gold has consistently outperformed both inflation and the growth rate of the world economy. From 1971 to 2023, gold’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was 8%, compared to 4% for the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) and 7.8% for global GDP growth.

世界黃金協會的數據顯示，黃金的表現一直跑贏通膨和世界經濟成長率。從 1971 年到 2023 年，黃金的複合年增長率 (CAGR) 為 8%，而美國消費者物價指數 (CPI) 為 4%，全球 GDP 成長率為 7.8%。

Silver, often dubbed the “poor man’s gold,” is another asset that deserves attention. With its industrial applications, especially in the green energy sector, silver has strong potential for future growth. According to one projection, the clean energy transition could dramatically increase the demand for silver in photovoltaic (PV) technology, potentially consuming between 85% and a jaw-dropping 98% of current global silver reserves by 2050.

白銀通常被稱為“窮人的黃金”，是另一種值得關注的資產。憑藉其工業應用，特別是在綠色能源領域，白銀未來具有強大的成長潛力。根據一項預測，清潔能源轉型可能會大幅增加光伏 (PV) 技術對白銀的需求，到 2050 年可能會消耗當前全球白銀儲備的 85% 到 98%。

Bitcoin: The

比特幣：