Polymarket 误导投注者？尽管交易量达到 20 亿美元，但未平仓合约仅为 2 亿美元

Polygon 上的预测市场 Polymarket 正在引起全球关注。它不仅是最活跃的没有代币的 dapp 之一，而且还受到追踪美国正在进行的总统竞选的民意调查机构的密切关注。

Polymarket, a predictions market on Polygon, has garnered immense attention, not only as one of the most active dapps without a token, but also for the close scrutiny it is receiving from pollsters in the U.S. presidential campaign.

Polymarket 是 Polygon 上的一个预测市场，它引起了极大的关注，不仅因为它是最活跃的无代币 dapp 之一，而且还因为它在美国总统竞选中受到民意调查机构的密切关注。

In the hotly contested campaign, former vice president Kamala Harris is battling it out with Donald Trump, the former president who lost to Joe Biden in 2020 and is now aiming to return to the presidency.

在这场竞争激烈的竞选活动中，前副总统卡马拉·哈里斯正在与唐纳德·特朗普展开较量，这位前总统在 2020 年输给了乔·拜登，现在正计划重返总统宝座。

Is Polymarket Misleading Punters?

Polymarket 是否误导了投注者？

According to Polymarket, Trump has extended his lead in the past few days, with punters placing the probability of a Donald Trump victory at 61%, versus 39% for Harris.

据 Polymarket 报道，特朗普在过去几天扩大了领先优势，投注者认为唐纳德·特朗普获胜的可能性为 61%，而哈里斯获胜的可能性为 39%。

Interestingly, the Presidential Election Winner 2024 market has an overall volume of more than $2 billion. While this may seem substantial, one analysis suggests that Polymarket is being misleading in not revealing the true open interest.

有趣的是，2024 年总统选举获胜者市场的总体规模超过 20 亿美元。虽然这看起来可能很大，但一项分析表明，Polymarket 没有透露真实的未平仓合约，具有误导性。

Open interest refers to the total number of outstanding contracts in Polymarket’s various markets, and is used as a gauge of interest and liquidity.

未平仓合约是指Polymarket各个市场的未平仓合约总数，被用作利息和流动性的衡量标准。

According to the analyst, the open interest is around $200 million, and has risen from about $100 million in the past 30 days. However, a glance at DeFiLlama shows a total value locked (TVL) of only $211 million—and this is for all active markets, including the dapps.

据分析师称，未平仓合约约为 2 亿美元，在过去 30 天里已从约 1 亿美元上升。然而，看看 DeFiLlama 就会发现，总锁定价值 (TVL) 只有 2.11 亿美元——这适用于所有活跃市场，包括 dapp。

This figure is significantly lower than the $2 billion in volume for the Presidential Election Winner 2024 market as of Oct. 18.

这一数字明显低于截至 10 月 18 日 2024 年总统选举获胜者市场 20 亿美元的交易量。

At over $211 million, the Polymarket TVL has reached near all-time highs, having risen from less than $50 million in April. Despite this rapid growth, the liquidity in the prediction market doesn’t seem to be as deep as one would expect.

Polymarket TVL 已从 4 月份的不足 5,000 万美元上升至接近历史最高水平，超过 2.11 亿美元。尽管增长迅速，但预测市场的流动性似乎并不像人们预期的那么深。

Transparency Questions Emerge

透明度问题出现

The analyst who highlighted this discrepancy blasts Polymarket developers for fronting volume rather than open interest, calling it an “unethical” move.

强调这一差异的分析师抨击 Polymarket 开发商只关注成交量而不是持仓量，称这是“不道德”的举动。

This highlight points to a possible lack of emphasis on transparency that could ultimately make it difficult for users to accurately gauge the risks involved when placing bets on Polymarket.

这一亮点表明，可能缺乏对透明度的重视，最终可能导致用户在 Polymarket 下注时难以准确评估所涉及的风险。

Americans will head to the polls on November 4 to elect the next president, following which the largest Polymarket market on Polygon will close and pay out rewards based on the winning candidate.

美国人将于 11 月 4 日前往投票站选举下一任总统，随后 Polygon 上最大的 Polymarket 市场将关闭，并根据获胜候选人发放奖励。

Currently, a punter named “markitzero” who is backing Harris to win has over 4.5 million shares and is in the red, while a Trump supporter named “Fredi9999” controls over 20.2 market shares and is currently in the money.

目前，支持哈里斯获胜的名为“markitzero”的投注者拥有超过 450 万股，处于亏损状态，而名为“Fredi9999”的特朗普支持者控制着超过 20.2 的市场份额，目前处于盈利状态。