Polymarket 誤導投注者？儘管交易量達 20 億美元，但未平倉合約僅 2 億美元

Polygon 上的預測市場 Polymarket 正在引起全球關注。它不僅是最活躍的沒有代幣的 dapp 之一，而且還受到追蹤美國正在進行的總統競選的民意調查機構的密切關注。

Polymarket, a predictions market on Polygon, has garnered immense attention, not only as one of the most active dapps without a token, but also for the close scrutiny it is receiving from pollsters in the U.S. presidential campaign.

Polymarket 是 Polygon 上的一個預測市場，它引起了極大的關注，不僅因為它是最活躍的無代幣 dapp 之一，而且還因為它在美國總統競選中受到民意調查機構的密切關注。

In the hotly contested campaign, former vice president Kamala Harris is battling it out with Donald Trump, the former president who lost to Joe Biden in 2020 and is now aiming to return to the presidency.

在這場競爭激烈的競選活動中，前副總統卡馬拉·哈里斯正在與唐納德·特朗普展開較量，這位前總統在2020 年輸給了喬·拜登，現在正計劃重返總統寶座。

Is Polymarket Misleading Punters?

Polymarket 是否誤導了投注者？

According to Polymarket, Trump has extended his lead in the past few days, with punters placing the probability of a Donald Trump victory at 61%, versus 39% for Harris.

根據 Polymarket 報導，川普在過去幾天擴大了領先優勢，投注者認為唐納德·川普獲勝的可能性為 61%，而哈里斯獲勝的可能性為 39%。

Interestingly, the Presidential Election Winner 2024 market has an overall volume of more than $2 billion. While this may seem substantial, one analysis suggests that Polymarket is being misleading in not revealing the true open interest.

有趣的是，2024 年總統選舉獲勝者市場的整體規模超過 20 億美元。雖然這看起來可能很大，但一項分析表明，Polymarket 沒有透露真實的未平倉合約，具有誤導性。

Open interest refers to the total number of outstanding contracts in Polymarket’s various markets, and is used as a gauge of interest and liquidity.

未平倉合約是指Polymarket各市場的未平倉合約總數，被用作利息和流動性的衡量標準。

According to the analyst, the open interest is around $200 million, and has risen from about $100 million in the past 30 days. However, a glance at DeFiLlama shows a total value locked (TVL) of only $211 million—and this is for all active markets, including the dapps.

據分析師稱，未平倉合約約為 2 億美元，在過去 30 天已從約 1 億美元上升。然而，看看 DeFiLlama 就會發現，總鎖定價值 (TVL) 只有 2.11 億美元——這適用於所有活躍市場，包括 dapp。

This figure is significantly lower than the $2 billion in volume for the Presidential Election Winner 2024 market as of Oct. 18.

這一數字明顯低於截至 10 月 18 日 2024 年總統選舉獲勝者市場 20 億美元的交易量。

At over $211 million, the Polymarket TVL has reached near all-time highs, having risen from less than $50 million in April. Despite this rapid growth, the liquidity in the prediction market doesn’t seem to be as deep as one would expect.

Polymarket TVL 已從 4 月的少於 5,000 萬美元上升至接近歷史最高水平，超過 2.11 億美元。儘管成長迅速，但預測市場的流動性似乎並不像人們預期的那麼深。

Transparency Questions Emerge

透明度問題出現

The analyst who highlighted this discrepancy blasts Polymarket developers for fronting volume rather than open interest, calling it an “unethical” move.

強調這一差異的分析師抨擊 Polymarket 開發商只關注成交量而不是持倉量，稱這是“不道德”的舉動。

This highlight points to a possible lack of emphasis on transparency that could ultimately make it difficult for users to accurately gauge the risks involved when placing bets on Polymarket.

這一亮點表明，可能缺乏對透明度的重視，最終可能導致用戶在 Polymarket 下注時難以準確評估所涉及的風險。

Americans will head to the polls on November 4 to elect the next president, following which the largest Polymarket market on Polygon will close and pay out rewards based on the winning candidate.

美國人將於 11 月 4 日前往投票站選舉下一任總統，隨後 Polygon 上最大的 Polymarket 市場將關閉，並根據獲勝候選人發放獎勵。

Currently, a punter named “markitzero” who is backing Harris to win has over 4.5 million shares and is in the red, while a Trump supporter named “Fredi9999” controls over 20.2 market shares and is currently in the money.

目前，支持哈里斯獲勝的名為“markitzero”的投注者擁有超過 450 萬股，處於虧損狀態，而名為“Fredi9999”的川普支持者控制著超過 20.2 的市場份額，目前處於盈利狀態。