Polymarket Misleads Punters? Despite $2B Volume, Open Interest Is Only $200M

Polymarket, the predictions market on Polygon, is drawing global attention. Not only is it among the most active dapps without their token, but it is also closely being monitored by pollsters tracking the ongoing presidential campaign in the United States.

Polymarket, a predictions market on Polygon, has garnered immense attention, not only as one of the most active dapps without a token, but also for the close scrutiny it is receiving from pollsters in the U.S. presidential campaign.

In the hotly contested campaign, former vice president Kamala Harris is battling it out with Donald Trump, the former president who lost to Joe Biden in 2020 and is now aiming to return to the presidency.

Is Polymarket Misleading Punters?

According to Polymarket, Trump has extended his lead in the past few days, with punters placing the probability of a Donald Trump victory at 61%, versus 39% for Harris.

Interestingly, the Presidential Election Winner 2024 market has an overall volume of more than $2 billion. While this may seem substantial, one analysis suggests that Polymarket is being misleading in not revealing the true open interest.

Open interest refers to the total number of outstanding contracts in Polymarket’s various markets, and is used as a gauge of interest and liquidity.

According to the analyst, the open interest is around $200 million, and has risen from about $100 million in the past 30 days. However, a glance at DeFiLlama shows a total value locked (TVL) of only $211 million—and this is for all active markets, including the dapps.

This figure is significantly lower than the $2 billion in volume for the Presidential Election Winner 2024 market as of Oct. 18.

At over $211 million, the Polymarket TVL has reached near all-time highs, having risen from less than $50 million in April. Despite this rapid growth, the liquidity in the prediction market doesn’t seem to be as deep as one would expect.

Transparency Questions Emerge

The analyst who highlighted this discrepancy blasts Polymarket developers for fronting volume rather than open interest, calling it an “unethical” move.

This highlight points to a possible lack of emphasis on transparency that could ultimately make it difficult for users to accurately gauge the risks involved when placing bets on Polymarket.

Americans will head to the polls on November 4 to elect the next president, following which the largest Polymarket market on Polygon will close and pay out rewards based on the winning candidate.

Currently, a punter named “markitzero” who is backing Harris to win has over 4.5 million shares and is in the red, while a Trump supporter named “Fredi9999” controls over 20.2 market shares and is currently in the money.