多边形（POL）被高估了吗？最近的数据和市场信号引起了人们的关注

Polygon（POL）是一种众所周知的第2层缩放解决方案，最近面临着重大挑战，引发了有关其当前估值的问题。

Layer-2 scaling solution Polygon (MATIC) is grappling with potential overvaluation concerns as the token struggles with declining network activity, dApp volumes, and reduced investor interest. As a result, some analysts are questioning whether the recent price drop is justified by the fundamentals.

第2层缩放溶液多边形（Matic）正在努力应对潜在的高估问题，因为在网络活动，DAPP数量下降和投资者的兴趣下降方面的努力下降。结果，一些分析师正在质疑最近的价格下跌是否由基本面证明是合理的。

Weakening Network Activity, Rising NVT

弱化网络活动，NVT上升

One key indicator suggesting Polygon might be overvalued is the Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio. Over the last two days, Polygon’s NVT has seen a drastic increase, rising from 27.66 to 86.44. The NVT ratio gauges the value of a blockchain’s market capitalization relative to its transaction volume. When the ratio rises sharply, it suggests that the network’s market value is not supported by real transaction activity, hinting at an overvalued asset.

提示多边形可能被高估的一个关键指标是交易（NVT）比率的网络值。在过去的两天中，Polygon的NVT急剧增加，从27.66增至86.44。 NVT比率相对于其交易量来衡量区块链市值的价值。当比率急剧上升时，这表明该网络的市场价值不受实际交易活动的支持，暗示了高估资产。

Declining dApp Volumes, DeFi Performance

DAPP卷下降，表现性能

According to data from DappRadar, Polygon’s dApp volumes have seen a significant decline of 41% over the last 30 days, bringing the total to $6.16 billion. Alongside this decline, the number of Unique Active Wallets has dropped by 22%, now totaling around 3.62 million. These drops in usage suggest that there is reduced demand for the network’s services, which could potentially hinder future growth.

根据Dappradar的数据，Polygon的DAPP量在过去30天中显着下降了41％，总计达到61.6亿美元。除了这种下降，独特的活动钱包的数量已下降了22％，现在总计约362万。这些用法下降表明，对网络服务的需求减少，这可能会阻碍未来的增长。

Furthermore, in the DeFi sector, Polygon is also experiencing weak performance. The Total Value Locked (TVL) on the Polygon network has dropped to $1.03 billion, marking a weekly low. Similarly, daily revenues on the blockchain have dipped to just $6,860. These indicators point to a slowdown in both development and user participation, weakening the overall value proposition for POL.

此外，在Defi行业中，Polygon也经历了弱的性能。多边形网络上的总价值锁定（TVL）已下降到10.3亿美元，标志着每周低点。同样，区块链的每日收入仅下降到6,860美元。这些指标表明开发和用户参与的放缓，削弱了POL的总体价值主张。

Bearish Technical Indicators

看跌技术指标

On the technical side, Polygon is trading within a descending triangle pattern on its lower timeframes. This pattern is usually interpreted as a bearish signal, indicating that the price is consolidating before likely continuing the downtrend. The lower trendline of this pattern sits at $0.43, a crucial level that Polygon is currently testing.

在技​​术方面，Polygon在其较低的时间范围内的下降三角形模式以往返的方式进行交易。这种模式通常被解释为看跌信号，表明价格在可能继续下降之前是合并的。这种模式的较低趋势线为0.43美元，这是多边形目前正在测试的关键水平。

If Polygon fails to hold the $0.43 support, the price could potentially drop to $0.40, marking further losses. Additionally, the Bollinger Band Trend indicator shows that bears are in control, reinforcing the likelihood of a price decline. While the Money Flow Index (MFI) suggests that the token might be oversold (with an MFI of 30), signaling a potential buy opportunity, the overall market sentiment remains cautious.

如果多边形未能持有0.43美元的支持，则价格可能会降至0.40美元，这标志着进一步的损失。此外，Bollinger Band趋势指标表明熊正在控制，增强了价格下降的可能性。虽然货币流量指数（MFI）表明令牌可能超出了（30个MFI），这表明了潜在的买入机会，但总体市场情绪仍然谨慎。

Declining Open Interest Signals Investor Uncertainty

开放利息的下降信号投资者不确定性

Another worrying sign for Polygon is the recent drop in Open Interest—the total value of outstanding derivative contracts. According to Coinalyze, Polygon’s Open Interest has fallen by $14 million in less than five days, dropping to $73.59 million. This decline reflects a lack of conviction in the market and suggests that derivatives traders are moving away from positions in Polygon. This decrease in Open Interest indicates uncertainty, as traders seem unwilling to take on new positions amid bearish trends.

多边形的另一个令人担忧的迹象是最近开放利益的下降 - 未偿还衍生合同的总价值。根据Coinaleze的数据，Polygon的开放兴趣在不到五天的时间内下降了1400万美元，下降到7359万美元。这种下降反映了市场上缺乏信念，并表明衍生品交易员正在离开多边形的职位。开放兴趣的下降表明不确定性，因为交易者似乎不愿在看跌趋势中担任新职位。

When Open Interest declines during a downtrend, it often suggests a lack of market participation and may lead to consolidation within the current price range. This situation reduces the chances of a price reversal or significant upward movement in the near term.

当开放利息在下降趋势期间下降时，通常表明缺乏市场参与，并可能导致当前价格范围内的合并。这种情况减少了价格逆转或在短期内发生重大向上移动的机会。