多邊形（POL）被高估了嗎？最近的數據和市場信號引起了人們的關注

Polygon（POL）是一種眾所周知的第2層縮放解決方案，最近面臨著重大挑戰，引發了有關其當前估值的問題。

Layer-2 scaling solution Polygon (MATIC) is grappling with potential overvaluation concerns as the token struggles with declining network activity, dApp volumes, and reduced investor interest. As a result, some analysts are questioning whether the recent price drop is justified by the fundamentals.

第2層縮放溶液多邊形（Matic）正在努力應對潛在的高估問題，因為在網絡活動，DAPP數量下降和投資者的興趣下降方面的努力下降。結果，一些分析師正在質疑最近的價格下跌是否由基本面證明是合理的。

Weakening Network Activity, Rising NVT

弱化網絡活動，NVT上升

One key indicator suggesting Polygon might be overvalued is the Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio. Over the last two days, Polygon’s NVT has seen a drastic increase, rising from 27.66 to 86.44. The NVT ratio gauges the value of a blockchain’s market capitalization relative to its transaction volume. When the ratio rises sharply, it suggests that the network’s market value is not supported by real transaction activity, hinting at an overvalued asset.

提示多邊形可能被高估的一個關鍵指標是交易（NVT）比率的網絡值。在過去的兩天中，Polygon的NVT急劇增加，從27.66增至86.44。 NVT比率相對於其交易量來衡量區塊鏈市值的價值。當比率急劇上升時，這表明該網絡的市場價值不受實際交易活動的支持，暗示了高估資產。

Declining dApp Volumes, DeFi Performance

DAPP卷下降，表現性能

According to data from DappRadar, Polygon’s dApp volumes have seen a significant decline of 41% over the last 30 days, bringing the total to $6.16 billion. Alongside this decline, the number of Unique Active Wallets has dropped by 22%, now totaling around 3.62 million. These drops in usage suggest that there is reduced demand for the network’s services, which could potentially hinder future growth.

根據Dappradar的數據，Polygon的DAPP量在過去30天中顯著下降了41％，總計達到61.6億美元。除了這種下降，獨特的活動錢包的數量已下降了22％，現在總計約362萬。這些用法下降表明，對網絡服務的需求減少，這可能會阻礙未來的增長。

Furthermore, in the DeFi sector, Polygon is also experiencing weak performance. The Total Value Locked (TVL) on the Polygon network has dropped to $1.03 billion, marking a weekly low. Similarly, daily revenues on the blockchain have dipped to just $6,860. These indicators point to a slowdown in both development and user participation, weakening the overall value proposition for POL.

此外，在Defi行業中，Polygon也經歷了弱的性能。多邊形網絡上的總價值鎖定（TVL）已下降到10.3億美元，標誌著每週低點。同樣，區塊鏈的每日收入僅下降到6,860美元。這些指標表明開發和用戶參與的放緩，削弱了POL的總體價值主張。

Bearish Technical Indicators

看跌技術指標

On the technical side, Polygon is trading within a descending triangle pattern on its lower timeframes. This pattern is usually interpreted as a bearish signal, indicating that the price is consolidating before likely continuing the downtrend. The lower trendline of this pattern sits at $0.43, a crucial level that Polygon is currently testing.

在技​​術方面，Polygon在其較低的時間範圍內的下降三角形模式以往返的方式進行交易。這種模式通常被解釋為看跌信號，表明價格在可能繼續下降之前是合併的。這種模式的較低趨勢線為0.43美元，這是多邊形目前正在測試的關鍵水平。

If Polygon fails to hold the $0.43 support, the price could potentially drop to $0.40, marking further losses. Additionally, the Bollinger Band Trend indicator shows that bears are in control, reinforcing the likelihood of a price decline. While the Money Flow Index (MFI) suggests that the token might be oversold (with an MFI of 30), signaling a potential buy opportunity, the overall market sentiment remains cautious.

如果多邊形未能持有0.43美元的支持，則價格可能會降至0.40美元，這標誌著進一步的損失。此外，Bollinger Band趨勢指標表明熊正在控制，增強了價格下降的可能性。雖然貨幣流量指數（MFI）表明令牌可能超出了（30個MFI），這表明了潛在的買入機會，但總體市場情緒仍然謹慎。

Declining Open Interest Signals Investor Uncertainty

開放利息的下降信號投資者不確定性

Another worrying sign for Polygon is the recent drop in Open Interest—the total value of outstanding derivative contracts. According to Coinalyze, Polygon’s Open Interest has fallen by $14 million in less than five days, dropping to $73.59 million. This decline reflects a lack of conviction in the market and suggests that derivatives traders are moving away from positions in Polygon. This decrease in Open Interest indicates uncertainty, as traders seem unwilling to take on new positions amid bearish trends.

多邊形的另一個令人擔憂的跡像是最近開放利益的下降 - 未償還衍生合同的總價值。根據Coinaleze的數據，Polygon的開放興趣在不到五天的時間內下降了1400萬美元，下降到7359萬美元。這種下降反映了市場上缺乏信念，並表明衍生品交易員正在離開多邊形的職位。開放興趣的下降表明不確定性，因為交易者似乎不願在看跌趨勢中擔任新職位。

When Open Interest declines during a downtrend, it often suggests a lack of market participation and may lead to consolidation within the current price range. This situation reduces the chances of a price reversal or significant upward movement in the near term.

當開放利息在下降趨勢期間下降時，通常表明缺乏市場參與，並可能導致當前價格範圍內的合併。這種情況減少了價格逆轉或在短期內發生重大向上移動的機會。