政治模因币是押注选举结果的新方式

7 月 13 日，随着一名潜在刺客在宾夕法尼亚州巴特勒的一次集会上差点杀死唐纳德·特朗普的消息传开，一场交易狂潮开始了。

As news broke on July 13 that an would-be assassin had narrowly missed killing Donald Trump at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, a trading frenzy began. Within an hour of the shooting, the price of TRUMP, a cryptocurrency inspired by the former president, had jumped up by more than a third, from $6.34 to $8.69. The memecoin was, in effect, a bellwether for the upcoming US election.

7 月 13 日有消息传出，一名潜在暗杀者在宾夕法尼亚州巴特勒的一次集会上差点杀死了唐纳德·特朗普，一场交易狂潮开始了。枪击事件发生后一个小时内，受前总统启发的加密货币特朗普的价格上涨了三分之一以上，从 6.34 美元上涨至 8.69 美元。事实上，模因币是即将到来的美国大选的风向标。

Tens of political memecoins have been created within the past year; there also are coins modeled after high-profile politicians such as Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. They share an iconography and naming convention: The politicians are typically represented by unflattering caricatures and their names are deliberately misspelled (instead of Joe Biden, it’s “Jeo Boden”), in homage to an influential meme comic from the 2010s.

去年，数十种政治模因币被创建；还有一些以乔·拜登、卡马拉·哈里斯、小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪和亚历山大·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯等知名政客为原型的硬币。他们有共同的肖像和命名惯例：政治家通常以不讨人喜欢的漫画来代表，他们的名字被故意拼写错误（不是乔·拜登，而是“Jeo Boden”），以向 2010 年代颇具影响力的模因漫画致敬。

Beyond financial speculation, the coins serve no purpose and promise no utility, but over the course of the US presidential election campaign, their market performance has correlated with the political fortunes of the individuals they depict.

除了金融投机之外，这些硬币没有任何用途，也没有承诺任何效用，但在美国总统竞选过程中，它们的市场表现与它们所描绘的个人的政治命运相关。

Just as the price of TRUMP rose in the wake of the assassination attempt, an event that commentators had predicted would bolster his chances of reelection, the price of KAMA, the Harris-themed coin, more than tripled after Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the race, paving the way for the vice president to become the Democratic nominee. Similarly, on June 27, the day of Biden’s disastrous CNN debate performance, the price of BODEN fell by half.

正如评论员预测暗杀事件后特朗普的价格上涨将增加他连任的机会一样，在乔·拜登宣布退出总统选举后，哈里斯主题硬币 KAMA 的价格上涨了两倍多竞选，为副总统成为民主党候选人铺平道路。同样，6月27日，也就是拜登在CNN灾难性辩论表演当天，BODEN的价格下跌了一半。

In the US, the Commodities and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), a financial regulator, has refused to allow gambling platforms to offer bets on election results. It is explicitly illegal under the laws of numerous states for residents to place those kinds of bets, too. But buying into political memecoins has become a loose proxy—one that comes, courtesy of the violent swings in price typical of crypto markets, with both increased risk and potential reward. In aggregate, hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of political memecoins are currently changing hands every day.

在美国，金融监管机构商品及期货交易委员会（CFTC）拒绝允许赌博平台提供对选举结果的投注。根据许多州的法律，居民进行此类投注也是明确违法的。但购买政治模因币已经成为一种松散的替代品——由于加密货币市场典型的价格剧烈波动，这种替代品的出现，风险和潜在回报都增加了。总的来说，目前每天价值数亿美元的政治模因币正在易手。

“An investment in a political memecoin isn’t an endorsement or badge of support,” says Rennick Palley, founding partner at investment firm Stratos, whose hedge fund holds memecoins in its portfolio. “The majority of people look at it as a fun way to bet on what is going to happen. If I wanted to speculate on who is going to win, memecoins are clearly the way to do it for maximum risk and maximum upside.”

“对政治模因币的投资并不是一种认可或支持徽章，”投资公司 Stratos 的创始合伙人 Rennick Palley 表示，该公司的对冲基金在其投资组合中持有模因币。 “大多数人认为这是一种押注即将发生的事情的有趣方式。如果我想猜测谁会获胜，模因币显然是实现最大风险和最大收益的方法。”

The debate over whether betting on elections should be legalized in the US extends back decades, but is currently playing out in the US court system. In September, the CFTC denied an application by Kalshi, a New York–based company that runs a market for betting on the outcome of events, to let customers wager on which party would control the two chambers of Congress, describing the venture as “contrary to the public interest.”

关于美国选举博彩是否应该合法化的争论可以追溯到几十年前，但目前正在美国法院系统中展开。 9 月，美国商品期货交易委员会 (CFTC) 拒绝了纽约一家公司 Kalshi 的申请，该公司经营一个事件结果投注市场，允许客户投注哪一方将控制国会两院，并将该合资企业描述为“相反”。为了公共利益。”