政治迷因幣是押注選舉結果的新方式

7 月 13 日，隨著一名潛在刺客在賓夕法尼亞州巴特勒的一次集會上差點殺死唐納德·川普的消息傳開，一場交易狂潮開始了。

As news broke on July 13 that an would-be assassin had narrowly missed killing Donald Trump at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, a trading frenzy began. Within an hour of the shooting, the price of TRUMP, a cryptocurrency inspired by the former president, had jumped up by more than a third, from $6.34 to $8.69. The memecoin was, in effect, a bellwether for the upcoming US election.

7 月 13 日有消息傳出，一名潛在暗殺者在賓夕法尼亞州巴特勒的一次集會上差點殺死了唐納德·特朗普，一場交易狂潮開始了。槍擊事件發生後一個小時內，受前總統啟發的加密貨幣川普的價格上漲了三分之一以上，從 6.34 美元上漲至 8.69 美元。事實上，迷因幣是即將到來的美國大選的風向標。

Tens of political memecoins have been created within the past year; there also are coins modeled after high-profile politicians such as Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. They share an iconography and naming convention: The politicians are typically represented by unflattering caricatures and their names are deliberately misspelled (instead of Joe Biden, it’s “Jeo Boden”), in homage to an influential meme comic from the 2010s.

去年，數十種政治迷因幣被創建；還有一些以喬·拜登、卡馬拉·哈里斯、小羅伯特·F·甘迺迪和亞歷山大·奧卡西奧-科爾特斯等知名政治人物為原型的硬幣。他們有共同的肖像和命名慣例：政治家通常以不討人喜歡的漫畫來代表，他們的名字被故意拼寫錯誤（不是喬·拜登，而是“Jeo Boden”），以向2010 年代頗具影響力的模因漫畫致敬。

Beyond financial speculation, the coins serve no purpose and promise no utility, but over the course of the US presidential election campaign, their market performance has correlated with the political fortunes of the individuals they depict.

除了金融投機之外，這些硬幣沒有任何用途，也沒有承諾任何效用，但在美國總統競選過程中，它們的市場表現與它們所描繪的個人的政治命運相關。

Just as the price of TRUMP rose in the wake of the assassination attempt, an event that commentators had predicted would bolster his chances of reelection, the price of KAMA, the Harris-themed coin, more than tripled after Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the race, paving the way for the vice president to become the Democratic nominee. Similarly, on June 27, the day of Biden’s disastrous CNN debate performance, the price of BODEN fell by half.

正如評論員預測暗殺事件後川普的價格上漲將增加他連任的機會一樣，在喬拜登宣布退出總統選舉後，哈里斯主題硬幣 KAMA 的價格上漲了兩倍多競選，為副總統成為民主黨候選人鋪平道路。同樣，6月27日，也就是拜登在CNN災難性辯論表演當天，BODEN的價格下跌了一半。

In the US, the Commodities and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), a financial regulator, has refused to allow gambling platforms to offer bets on election results. It is explicitly illegal under the laws of numerous states for residents to place those kinds of bets, too. But buying into political memecoins has become a loose proxy—one that comes, courtesy of the violent swings in price typical of crypto markets, with both increased risk and potential reward. In aggregate, hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of political memecoins are currently changing hands every day.

在美國，金融監理機構商品及期貨交易委員會（CFTC）拒絕允許賭博平台提供選舉結果的投注。根據許多州的法律，居民進行此類投注也是明確違法的。但購買政治迷因幣已經成為一種鬆散的替代品——由於加密貨幣市場典型的價格劇烈波動，這種替代品的出現，風險和潛在回報都增加了。總的來說，目前每天價值數億美元的政治迷因幣正在易手。

“An investment in a political memecoin isn’t an endorsement or badge of support,” says Rennick Palley, founding partner at investment firm Stratos, whose hedge fund holds memecoins in its portfolio. “The majority of people look at it as a fun way to bet on what is going to happen. If I wanted to speculate on who is going to win, memecoins are clearly the way to do it for maximum risk and maximum upside.”

「對政治迷因幣的投資並不是一種認可或支持徽章，」投資公司 Stratos 的創始合夥人 Rennick Palley 表示，該公司的對沖基金在其投資組合中持有迷因幣。 「大多數人認為這是一種押注即將發生的事情的有趣方式。如果我想猜測誰會獲勝，模因幣顯然是實現最大風險和最大收益的方法。

The debate over whether betting on elections should be legalized in the US extends back decades, but is currently playing out in the US court system. In September, the CFTC denied an application by Kalshi, a New York–based company that runs a market for betting on the outcome of events, to let customers wager on which party would control the two chambers of Congress, describing the venture as “contrary to the public interest.”

關於美國選舉博彩是否應該合法化的爭論可以追溯到幾十年前，但目前正在美國法院系統中展開。 9 月，美國商品期貨交易委員會(CFTC) 拒絕了紐約一家公司Kalshi 的申請，該公司經營一個事件結果投注市場，允許客戶投注哪一方將控制國會兩院，並將該合資企業描述為“相反” 。