人们很累（失败）

本文深入探讨了加密市场的变化，尤其是零售用户的疲劳感。

Retail users are tired of losing money in the crypto market, and the market has become fast-paced and competitive, shifting from a venture capital-led market to a meme coin craze. This article deeply explores the changes in the crypto market, particularly the fatigue felt by retail users. While meme coins once provided a fairer opportunity for retail, they ultimately became overly speculative, leading to a deterioration in market conditions. This has led to a call for more attention to projects with real applications and fair distribution mechanisms.

零售用户厌倦了在加密货币市场上损失资金，市场已经快节奏且竞争力，从风险投资的市场转变为模因硬币的热潮。本文深入探讨了加密市场的变化，尤其是零售用户的疲劳感。尽管Meme硬币曾经为零售提供了更公平的机会，但它们最终变得过于投机，导致市场条件下的恶化。这导致呼吁更多地关注具有实际应用和公平分配机制的项目。

People Feel Tired: Key Takeaways

人们感到疲倦：关键要点

As Kaitoai emphasized, in the last two weeks of January 2025, the mention of the word "tired" increased on crypto Twitter. This cycle is different from others, presenting more challenges and surprising even traders who have experienced two or three cycles. The market is changing: the speed of narrative shifts is faster, and attention has become the scarcest currency. Last but not least, increasing regulatory scrutiny and political intervention in the crypto space have introduced new variables.

正如Kaitoai强调的那样，在2025年1月的最后两个星期中，Crypto Twitter上提到的“疲倦”一词增加了。这个周期与其他周期不同，即使经历了两个或三个周期的交易者，也带来了更多的挑战和令人惊讶的挑战。市场正在发生变化：叙事转变的速度更快，注意力已成为最稀缺的货币。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，对加密货币领域的监管审查和政治干预越来越多，引入了新的变量。

Why do people feel tired? Retail investors have missed opportunities for too long; every time it seems the goal is within reach, the market dynamics change faster than before. In the 2021 cycle, we saw venture capitalists achieve exponential returns compared to retail investors who had no access to private investment opportunities.

人们为什么会感到疲倦？散户投资者已经错过了太长时间的机会。每次目标都可以实现的目标时，市场动态的变化速度比以前更快。在2021年的周期中，我们看到风险投资家与无法获得私人投资机会的散户投资者相比获得了指数回报。

This continued until around 2023, when projects like TIA and DYM emerged, marking the end of retail investors' disillusionment with these venture capital extraction techniques. What might be the most rational consequence of this? A movement seeking to change the power dynamics.

这一直持续到2023年左右，当时TIA和DYM等项目出现了，这标志着这些风险投资资本提取技术的零售投资者幻灭的结束。这可能是最合理的后果？试图改变权力动态的运动。

The long-known narrative of "meme coins" gained increasing attention as venture capitalists no longer had private chips to sell to ignorant buyers in the market. This was beneficial for retail investors, who managed to find a fair competitive environment. Until the narrative became overly exaggerated and saturated, further shortening users' attention spans. Let’s look at how the market landscape has evolved and where we might be heading, attempting to explain why people feel tired.

“模因硬币”的著名叙述引起了人们的关注，因为风险投资家不再有私人筹码出售给市场上无知的买家。这对于设法找到公平竞争环境的零售投资者来说是有益的。直到叙述变得过于夸张和饱和，进一步缩短了用户的注意力。让我们看一下市场格局的发展方式以及我们可能要前进的地方，试图解释人们为什么感到疲倦。

Phase One (Early 2024) - From VC Coins to Meme Coins

第一阶段（2024年初） - 从VC硬币到模因硬币

It almost feels like a long time ago, before the AI craze and meme coin frenzy, there was a period when the mainstream play for retail investors was airdrops. This play was initiated by Arbitrum and other Layer 2 airdrops. Retail users saw the potential of airdrops by trying new protocols and chains, turning airdrops into a business, with companies offering airdrop-as-a-service.

几乎感觉就像很久以前，在AI热潮和模因硬币狂潮之前，曾经是零售投资者主流游戏的时期。该游戏是由仲裁和其他第2层气流发起的。零售用户通过尝试新的协议和链条，将Airdrops转变为企业，并提供Airdrop-a as-a-Service，从而看到了空投的潜力。

However, dreams turned into nightmares when these coins began to release and disclose their tokenomics, leaving users very disappointed: all the efforts resulted in almost nothing airdropped? One of the most controversial releases was Scroll, a ZK-EVM L2. After over a year of ecosystem promotion, Scroll's airdrop was disappointing, raising questions about why 5.5% of the SCR supply was allocated to Binance instead of the community.

但是，当这些硬币开始释放并披露其令牌组学时，梦想变成了噩梦，使用户感到非常失望：所有的努力几乎没有任何空调？最具争议的版本之一是滚动，ZK-EVM L2。经过一年多的生态系统促进，Scroll的Airdrop令人失望，引发了有关为什么将5.5％的SCR供应分配给Binance而不是社区的问题。

Moreover, the circulating supply of most of these tokens was very low (circulating supply / total supply), with a large portion allocated to VCs. Another topic of discussion is TIA and DYM, which at one point had narratives on crypto Twitter revolving around staking them in exchange for expectations of future ecosystem project airdrops. You guessed it: those airdrops never happened, and the price trends of the tokens only went down (below is the chart for DYM).

此外，大多数这些令牌的循环供应非常低（循环供应 /总供应），大部分分配给了VC。讨论的另一个话题是TIA和DYM，在某一时刻，Crypto Twitter上的叙述围绕着将它们旋转，以换取对未来生态系统项目Airdrops的期望。您猜到了：这些气滴从未发生过，代币的价格趋势仅下降（以下是Dym的图表）。

Here’s an overview of the different rounds and investor unlocks for TIA: In the first unlock, over 97.5% of TIA's circulating supply was unlocked, valued at over $1.88, with daily unlock amounts reaching $10 million. Ultimately, retail investors grew tired of these types of tokens, meaning that the issuance price of most tokens only fell and eventually even dropped below their last financing valuation.

这是对TIA的不同回合和投资者解锁的概述：在第一次解锁中，超过97.5％的TIA循环供应已解锁，价值超过1.88美元，每天的释放金额达到1000万美元。最终，散户投资者对这些类型的代币感到厌倦，这意味着大多数代币的发行价格只会下降，甚至最终降至其上一次融资估值之下。

This is evident when we look at the dashboard provided below: This dashboard considers the investment returns of each VC's best-performing investments in the data sample.

当我们查看下面提供的仪表板时，这一点很明显：此仪表板考虑了每个风险投资在数据样本中表现最好的投资的投资回报。

Returns from venture capital in the previous cycle:

在上一个周期中从风险投资中退货：

Returns from venture capital in this cycle:

在此周期中从风险投资中退货：

The end of the venture capital era is so evident that even Hayes accurately pointed this out in his December 2024 article, where retail investors saw a glimmer of hope at the end of the dark tunnel: meme coins. Tired of the venture capital-led schemes, retail investors finally had the chance to enter the permissionless market that blockchain was supposed to open up for them.

风险投资时代的终结是如此明显，即使海斯在2024年12月的文章中也准确地指出了这一点，在那里，散户投资者在黑暗隧道结束时看到了一丝希望：模因硬币。散户投资者厌倦了风险投资领导的计划，终于有机会进入了本应为他们开放的无许可市场。

This must be the direction of the future, right?

这一定是未来的方向，对吗？

Phase Two - The Meme Coin Craze

第二阶段 - 模因硬币热潮

After the end of the venture capital era, users had to find new plays, and they discovered this through muststopmurad and his "meme coin super cycle." For retail investors, meme coins seemed to be the closest thing to having equal opportunities in the market—until they no longer were. Prices soared, Trump was elected, and we were going to the moon.

在风险投资时代结束后，用户必须找到新的戏剧，他们通过Muststopmurad和他的“ Meme Coin Super Cycle”发现了这一点。对于散户投资者而言，模因硬币似乎是在市场上拥有平等机会的最接近的事情 - 直到他们不再是。价格飙升，特朗普当选，我们要去月球。

But suddenly, the liquidity plug was pulled, market attention shifted elsewhere

但是突然，流动性插头被拉开，市场注意力在其他地方转移