人們很累（失敗）

本文深入探討了加密市場的變化，尤其是零售用戶的疲勞感。

Retail users are tired of losing money in the crypto market, and the market has become fast-paced and competitive, shifting from a venture capital-led market to a meme coin craze. This article deeply explores the changes in the crypto market, particularly the fatigue felt by retail users. While meme coins once provided a fairer opportunity for retail, they ultimately became overly speculative, leading to a deterioration in market conditions. This has led to a call for more attention to projects with real applications and fair distribution mechanisms.

零售用戶厭倦了在加密貨幣市場上損失資金，市場已經快節奏且競爭力，從風險投資的市場轉變為模因硬幣的熱潮。本文深入探討了加密市場的變化，尤其是零售用戶的疲勞感。儘管Meme硬幣曾經為零售提供了更公平的機會，但它們最終變得過於投機，導致市場條件下的惡化。這導致呼籲更多地關注具有實際應用和公平分配機制的項目。

People Feel Tired: Key Takeaways

人們感到疲倦：關鍵要點

As Kaitoai emphasized, in the last two weeks of January 2025, the mention of the word "tired" increased on crypto Twitter. This cycle is different from others, presenting more challenges and surprising even traders who have experienced two or three cycles. The market is changing: the speed of narrative shifts is faster, and attention has become the scarcest currency. Last but not least, increasing regulatory scrutiny and political intervention in the crypto space have introduced new variables.

正如Kaitoai強調的那樣，在2025年1月的最後兩個星期中，Crypto Twitter上提到的“疲倦”一詞增加了。這個週期與其他週期不同，即使經歷了兩個或三個週期的交易者，也帶來了更多的挑戰和令人驚訝的挑戰。市場正在發生變化：敘事轉變的速度更快，注意力已成為最稀缺的貨幣。最後但並非最不重要的一點是，對加密貨幣領域的監管審查和政治干預越來越多，引入了新的變量。

Why do people feel tired? Retail investors have missed opportunities for too long; every time it seems the goal is within reach, the market dynamics change faster than before. In the 2021 cycle, we saw venture capitalists achieve exponential returns compared to retail investors who had no access to private investment opportunities.

人們為什麼會感到疲倦？散戶投資者已經錯過了太長時間的機會。每次目標都可以實現的目標時，市場動態的變化速度比以前更快。在2021年的周期中，我們看到風險投資家與無法獲得私人投資機會的散戶投資者相比獲得了指數回報。

This continued until around 2023, when projects like TIA and DYM emerged, marking the end of retail investors' disillusionment with these venture capital extraction techniques. What might be the most rational consequence of this? A movement seeking to change the power dynamics.

這一直持續到2023年左右，當時TIA和DYM等項目出現了，這標誌著這些風險投資資本提取技術的零售投資者幻滅的結束。這可能是最合理的後果？試圖改變權力動態的運動。

The long-known narrative of "meme coins" gained increasing attention as venture capitalists no longer had private chips to sell to ignorant buyers in the market. This was beneficial for retail investors, who managed to find a fair competitive environment. Until the narrative became overly exaggerated and saturated, further shortening users' attention spans. Let’s look at how the market landscape has evolved and where we might be heading, attempting to explain why people feel tired.

“模因硬幣”的著名敘述引起了人們的關注，因為風險投資家不再有私人籌碼出售給市場上無知的買家。這對於設法找到公平競爭環境的零售投資者來說是有益的。直到敘述變得過於誇張和飽和，進一步縮短了用戶的注意力。讓我們看一下市場格局的發展方式以及我們可能要前進的地方，試圖解釋人們為什麼感到疲倦。

Phase One (Early 2024) - From VC Coins to Meme Coins

第一階段（2024年初） - 從VC硬幣到模因硬幣

It almost feels like a long time ago, before the AI craze and meme coin frenzy, there was a period when the mainstream play for retail investors was airdrops. This play was initiated by Arbitrum and other Layer 2 airdrops. Retail users saw the potential of airdrops by trying new protocols and chains, turning airdrops into a business, with companies offering airdrop-as-a-service.

幾乎感覺就像很久以前，在AI熱潮和模因硬幣狂潮之前，曾經是零售投資者主流遊戲的時期。該遊戲是由仲裁和其他第2層氣流發起的。零售用戶通過嘗試新的協議和鏈條，將Airdrops轉變為企業，並提供Airdrop-a as-a-Service，從而看到了空投的潛力。

However, dreams turned into nightmares when these coins began to release and disclose their tokenomics, leaving users very disappointed: all the efforts resulted in almost nothing airdropped? One of the most controversial releases was Scroll, a ZK-EVM L2. After over a year of ecosystem promotion, Scroll's airdrop was disappointing, raising questions about why 5.5% of the SCR supply was allocated to Binance instead of the community.

但是，當這些硬幣開始釋放並披露其令牌組學時，夢想變成了噩夢，使用戶感到非常失望：所有的努力幾乎沒有任何空調？最具爭議的版本之一是滾動，ZK-EVM L2。經過一年多的生態系統促進，Scroll的Airdrop令人失望，引發了有關為什麼將5.5％的SCR供應分配給Binance而不是社區的問題。

Moreover, the circulating supply of most of these tokens was very low (circulating supply / total supply), with a large portion allocated to VCs. Another topic of discussion is TIA and DYM, which at one point had narratives on crypto Twitter revolving around staking them in exchange for expectations of future ecosystem project airdrops. You guessed it: those airdrops never happened, and the price trends of the tokens only went down (below is the chart for DYM).

此外，大多數這些令牌的循環供應非常低（循環供應 /總供應），大部分分配給了VC。討論的另一個話題是TIA和DYM，在某一時刻，Crypto Twitter上的敘述圍繞著將它們旋轉，以換取對未來生態系統項目Airdrops的期望。您猜到了：這些氣滴從未發生過，代幣的價格趨勢僅下降（以下是Dym的圖表）。

Here’s an overview of the different rounds and investor unlocks for TIA: In the first unlock, over 97.5% of TIA's circulating supply was unlocked, valued at over $1.88, with daily unlock amounts reaching $10 million. Ultimately, retail investors grew tired of these types of tokens, meaning that the issuance price of most tokens only fell and eventually even dropped below their last financing valuation.

這是對TIA的不同回合和投資者解鎖的概述：在第一次解鎖中，超過97.5％的TIA循環供應已解鎖，價值超過1.88美元，每天的釋放金額達到1000萬美元。最終，散戶投資者對這些類型的代幣感到厭倦，這意味著大多數代幣的發行價格只會下降，甚至最終降至其上一次融資估值之下。

This is evident when we look at the dashboard provided below: This dashboard considers the investment returns of each VC's best-performing investments in the data sample.

當我們查看下面提供的儀表板時，這一點很明顯：此儀表板考慮了每個風險投資在數據樣本中表現最好的投資的投資回報。

Returns from venture capital in the previous cycle:

在上一個週期中從風險投資中退貨：

Returns from venture capital in this cycle:

在此週期中從風險投資中退貨：

The end of the venture capital era is so evident that even Hayes accurately pointed this out in his December 2024 article, where retail investors saw a glimmer of hope at the end of the dark tunnel: meme coins. Tired of the venture capital-led schemes, retail investors finally had the chance to enter the permissionless market that blockchain was supposed to open up for them.

風險投資時代的終結是如此明顯，即使海斯在2024年12月的文章中也準確地指出了這一點，在那裡，散戶投資者在黑暗隧道結束時看到了一絲希望：模因硬幣。散戶投資者厭倦了風險投資領導的計劃，終於有機會進入了本應為他們開放的無許可市場。

This must be the direction of the future, right?

這一定是未來的方向，對嗎？

Phase Two - The Meme Coin Craze

第二階段 - 模因硬幣熱潮

After the end of the venture capital era, users had to find new plays, and they discovered this through muststopmurad and his "meme coin super cycle." For retail investors, meme coins seemed to be the closest thing to having equal opportunities in the market—until they no longer were. Prices soared, Trump was elected, and we were going to the moon.

在風險投資時代結束後，用戶必須找到新的戲劇，他們通過Muststopmurad和他的“ Meme Coin Super Cycle”發現了這一點。對於散戶投資者而言，模因硬幣似乎是在市場上擁有平等機會的最接近的事情 - 直到他們不再是。價格飆升，特朗普當選，我們要去月球。

But suddenly, the liquidity plug was pulled, market attention shifted elsewhere

但是突然，流動性插頭被拉開，市場注意力在其他地方轉移