每月联邦工作始终是美国和全球宏观基础

在广泛的标准普尔股价指数中提升或降低收益预测。我们的首席股权战略家和经济学家约翰·布兰克（John Blank）现在在这里扩展这一点。

The monthly U.S. Federal job additions are always a core macro fundamental, in particular lifting or lowering earnings forecasts, across the broad S&P 500 share price index.

每月的美国联邦工作始终是核心宏观基本的，尤其是在广泛的标准普尔500股价指数上提起或降低收益预测。

Now the latest government data had some interesting implications for the economy, in terms of civilian labor force additions and job losses at one large-cap stock.

现在，最新的政府数据对经济产生了一些有趣的影响，就一笔大型股票的平民劳动力和失业而言。

Plus, we’ll examine the impact of this jobs data on S&P 500 earnings forecasts for this year.

另外，我们将研究这些就业数据对今年标准普尔500指数预测的影响。

We’ll also discuss the recent sell-off that pushed the S&P 500 into correction territory. Have we seen the bottom or is there more downside ahead?

我们还将讨论最近将标准普尔500指数推向更正领域的抛售。我们是否看到了底部，还是有更多的缺点？

And we’ll look at how the recent Fed rate news is affecting the markets, especially near term.

我们将研究最近的美联储新闻如何影响市场，尤其是近期。

Three large cap stocks, experiencing major share price momentum runs, of late include JD.com (JD), Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood Markets (HOOD).

最近经历了三个大型股票股票，其中包括JD.com（JD），Coinbase（Coin）和Robinhood Markets（Hood）。

We’ll analyze these stocks now, starting with a new high in 2023 for the share price of U.S. e-commerce and physical retail giant JD.com.

我们现在将分析这些股票，从2023年的新高处开始，以美国电子商务和实物零售巨头JD.com的股价。

Despite the recent turbulence in the markets, there are still some bright spots to watch out for.

尽管市场最近发生了动荡，但仍然有一些明亮的地方要注意。

As we approach the second half of 2023, it’s clear that the macro environment is constantly shifting, impacting everything from employment to inflation.

当我们在2023年下半年接近时，很明显，宏观环境正在不断变化，从而影响了从就业到通货膨胀的一切。

To discuss this further, we have Chief Equity Strategist and Economist, John Blank, with us now.

为了进一步讨论这一点，我们现在将首席股本战略家和经济学家约翰·布兰克（John Blank）与我们联系。

1. What did the latest job additions data reveal about the state of the civilian labor force in the U.S.?

1。最新的工作补充数据揭示了有关美国平民劳动力状况的什么？

The latest government data revealed that the U.S. added 244,000 jobs in July, exceeding expectations and following June's revision up to 228,000 additions (from 208,000).

最新的政府数据显示，美国在7月增加了244,000个工作岗位，超出了预期，并在6月的修订后增加了228,000个增加（从208,000个）。

Moreover, May's job additions were revised down to 157,000 from 144,000.

此外，从144,000个五月的工作增加到157,000。

The unemployment rate rose to 3.8% from June's 3.6%, while economists had anticipated a reading of 3.7% and no change in the jobless rate.

失业率从6月份的3.6％上升到3.8％，而经济学家预计读数为3.7％，失业率没有变化。

Additionally, the labor force participation rate dropped to 62.3% from June's reading of 62.4%, and economists had expected a reading of 62.3%.

此外，劳动力参与率从6月份的62.4％的阅读率下降到62.3％，经济学家预计阅读62.3％。

2. Were the DOGE job cuts, announced recently, reflected in those numbers?

2。最近宣布的裁员是在这些数字中反映的吗？

Yes, it's worth noting that after the latest government data was released, one large-cap stock saw a notable share price pull back, while two other stocks saw some share price gains.

是的，值得注意的是，在发布最新的政府数据后，一张大盘股票的股价降低了，而另外两只股票则获得了一些股价上涨。

The stock that experienced a pull back was DOGE, due to the company announcing a new round of job cuts.

由于该公司宣布新的裁员，因此经历了退缩的股票是Doge。

Earlier this year, in February, the stock rose around 100% from the lows hit during the 2022 bear market.

今年早些时候，2月份，该股票从2022年熊市中的低点中增长了约100％。

However, since then, the stock has pulled back around 50% from the highs reached in March 2023.

但是，从那时起，该股票从2023年3月的高点撤回了约50％。

Meanwhile, two other stocks saw some gains. One was COIN, as the crypto market saw some strength in July, following the recent lows in Bitcoin.

同时，另外两个股票看到了一些收益。一个是硬币，因为最近在比特币的低点之后，加密货币市场在7月看到了一些力量。

The other stock that saw gains was HOOD, as the stock had slid around 50% during the bear market, but recently recovered to break back above the key $10 share price level.

看到收益收益的另一股股票是胡德，因为该股票在熊市期间滑行约50％，但最近恢复了以超过10美元的股价$ 10股价。

3. How did this impact the share market pull backs we witnessed recently, in particular, pulling the S&P 500 share price index into correction territory?

3。这如何影响我们最近目睹的股票市场撤退，特别是将标准普尔500股价指数提升到更正领域？

The recent sell-off that pushed the S&P 500 into correction territory was largely driven by rising interest rates and concerns over a potential recession.

最近的抛售将标准普尔500指数推向更正领土的抛售主要是由于利率上升和对潜在衰退的担忧。

As we approached the second quarter of 2023, there was a sense that the market was anticipating some slowdown in economic activity, which ultimately came to pass.

当我们接近2023年第二季度时，人们认为市场预计经济活动会有所放缓，最终会通过。

The U.S. economy contracted at a 2.4% rate in the first quarter, after preliminary estimates showed a 1% decline.

在初步估计显示下降1％之后，美国经济在第一季度的收入为2.4％。

Economists had anticipated a reading of 2.3%, compared to the prior quarter's 0.7% contraction, which was revised down from 0.9%.

与上一季度的0.7％收缩相比，经济学家预计将读取2.3％，而该收缩的收缩率为0.9％。

The main driver of the contraction was a 13.3% drop in government spending, while economists had expected a reading of 0.7%, following the prior quarter's 6.3% increase.

收缩的主要驱动力是政府支出下降了13.3％，而经济学家预计将读取0.7％，此前季度增长了6.3％。

However, despite the contraction, the market was pricing in a slim chance of no Fed rate hike at the July meeting, and the S&P 500 share price index rose around 15% in the first half of 2023.

然而，尽管有收缩，市场在7月的会议上的价格却很小，没有美联储率提高，而标准普尔500股价指数在2023年上半年上升了约15％。

But as we approached mid-July, the market was pricing in a nearly 100% chance of a 25 bps rate hike at the July meeting, and the S&P 500 pulled back

但是当我们接近7月中旬时，市场在7月的会议上以近100％的机会加息的价格近100％，而标准普尔500指数则退缩了