每月聯邦工作始終是美國和全球宏觀基礎

在廣泛的標準普爾股價指數中提升或降低收益預測。我們的首席股權戰略家和經濟學家約翰·布蘭克（John Blank）現在在這裡擴展這一點。

The monthly U.S. Federal job additions are always a core macro fundamental, in particular lifting or lowering earnings forecasts, across the broad S&P 500 share price index.

每月的美國聯邦工作始終是核心宏觀基本的，尤其是在廣泛的標準普爾500股價指數上提起或降低收益預測。

Now the latest government data had some interesting implications for the economy, in terms of civilian labor force additions and job losses at one large-cap stock.

現在，最新的政府數據對經濟產生了一些有趣的影響，就一筆大型股票的平民勞動力和失業而言。

Plus, we’ll examine the impact of this jobs data on S&P 500 earnings forecasts for this year.

另外，我們將研究這些就業數據對今年標準普爾500指數預測的影響。

We’ll also discuss the recent sell-off that pushed the S&P 500 into correction territory. Have we seen the bottom or is there more downside ahead?

我們還將討論最近將標準普爾500指數推向更正領域的拋售。我們是否看到了底部，還是有更多的缺點？

And we’ll look at how the recent Fed rate news is affecting the markets, especially near term.

我們將研究最近的美聯儲新聞如何影響市場，尤其是近期。

Three large cap stocks, experiencing major share price momentum runs, of late include JD.com (JD), Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood Markets (HOOD).

最近經歷了三個大型股票股票，其中包括JD.com（JD），Coinbase（Coin）和Robinhood Markets（Hood）。

We’ll analyze these stocks now, starting with a new high in 2023 for the share price of U.S. e-commerce and physical retail giant JD.com.

我們現在將分析這些股票，從2023年的新高處開始，以美國電子商務和實物零售巨頭JD.com的股價。

Despite the recent turbulence in the markets, there are still some bright spots to watch out for.

儘管市場最近發生了動盪，但仍然有一些明亮的地方要注意。

As we approach the second half of 2023, it’s clear that the macro environment is constantly shifting, impacting everything from employment to inflation.

當我們在2023年下半年接近時，很明顯，宏觀環境正在不斷變化，從而影響了從就業到通貨膨脹的一切。

To discuss this further, we have Chief Equity Strategist and Economist, John Blank, with us now.

為了進一步討論這一點，我們現在將首席股本戰略家和經濟學家約翰·布蘭克（John Blank）與我們聯繫。

1. What did the latest job additions data reveal about the state of the civilian labor force in the U.S.?

1。最新的工作補充數據揭示了有關美國平民勞動力狀況的什麼？

The latest government data revealed that the U.S. added 244,000 jobs in July, exceeding expectations and following June's revision up to 228,000 additions (from 208,000).

最新的政府數據顯示，美國在7月增加了244,000個工作崗位，超出了預期，並在6月的修訂後增加了228,000個增加（從208,000個）。

Moreover, May's job additions were revised down to 157,000 from 144,000.

此外，從144,000個五月的工作增加到157,000。

The unemployment rate rose to 3.8% from June's 3.6%, while economists had anticipated a reading of 3.7% and no change in the jobless rate.

失業率從6月份的3.6％上升到3.8％，而經濟學家預計讀數為3.7％，失業率沒有變化。

Additionally, the labor force participation rate dropped to 62.3% from June's reading of 62.4%, and economists had expected a reading of 62.3%.

此外，勞動力參與率從6月份的62.4％的閱讀率下降到62.3％，經濟學家預計閱讀62.3％。

2. Were the DOGE job cuts, announced recently, reflected in those numbers?

2。最近宣布的裁員是在這些數字中反映的嗎？

Yes, it's worth noting that after the latest government data was released, one large-cap stock saw a notable share price pull back, while two other stocks saw some share price gains.

是的，值得注意的是，在發布最新的政府數據後，一張大盤股票的股價降低了，而另外兩隻股票則獲得了一些股價上漲。

The stock that experienced a pull back was DOGE, due to the company announcing a new round of job cuts.

由於該公司宣布新的裁員，因此經歷了退縮的股票是Doge。

Earlier this year, in February, the stock rose around 100% from the lows hit during the 2022 bear market.

今年早些時候，2月份，該股票從2022年熊市中的低點中增長了約100％。

However, since then, the stock has pulled back around 50% from the highs reached in March 2023.

但是，從那時起，該股票從2023年3月的高點撤回了約50％。

Meanwhile, two other stocks saw some gains. One was COIN, as the crypto market saw some strength in July, following the recent lows in Bitcoin.

同時，另外兩個股票看到了一些收益。一個是硬幣，因為最近在比特幣的低點之後，加密貨幣市場在7月看到了一些力量。

The other stock that saw gains was HOOD, as the stock had slid around 50% during the bear market, but recently recovered to break back above the key $10 share price level.

看到收益收益的另一股股票是胡德，因為該股票在熊市期間滑行約50％，但最近恢復了以超過10美元的股價$ 10股價。

3. How did this impact the share market pull backs we witnessed recently, in particular, pulling the S&P 500 share price index into correction territory?

3。這如何影響我們最近目睹的股票市場撤退，特別是將標準普爾500股價指數提升到更正領域？

The recent sell-off that pushed the S&P 500 into correction territory was largely driven by rising interest rates and concerns over a potential recession.

最近的拋售將標準普爾500指數推向更正領土的拋售主要是由於利率上升和對潛在衰退的擔憂。

As we approached the second quarter of 2023, there was a sense that the market was anticipating some slowdown in economic activity, which ultimately came to pass.

當我們接近2023年第二季度時，人們認為市場預計經濟活動會有所放緩，最終會通過。

The U.S. economy contracted at a 2.4% rate in the first quarter, after preliminary estimates showed a 1% decline.

在初步估計顯示下降1％之後，美國經濟在第一季度的收入為2.4％。

Economists had anticipated a reading of 2.3%, compared to the prior quarter's 0.7% contraction, which was revised down from 0.9%.

與上一季度的0.7％收縮相比，經濟學家預計將讀取2.3％，而該收縮的收縮率為0.9％。

The main driver of the contraction was a 13.3% drop in government spending, while economists had expected a reading of 0.7%, following the prior quarter's 6.3% increase.

收縮的主要驅動力是政府支出下降了13.3％，而經濟學家預計將讀取0.7％，此前季度增長了6.3％。

However, despite the contraction, the market was pricing in a slim chance of no Fed rate hike at the July meeting, and the S&P 500 share price index rose around 15% in the first half of 2023.

然而，儘管有收縮，市場在7月的會議上的價格卻很小，沒有美聯儲率提高，而標準普爾500股價指數在2023年上半年上升了約15％。

But as we approached mid-July, the market was pricing in a nearly 100% chance of a 25 bps rate hike at the July meeting, and the S&P 500 pulled back

但是當我們接近7月中旬時，市場在7月的會議上以近100％的機會加息的價格近100％，而標準普爾500指數則退縮了