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MSTR 股票最近的突破可能会成为比特币飙升至 70,000 美元水平的主要催化剂。
The recent breakout in the MSTR stock could provide a major catalyst for Bitcoin to surge to $70,000 levels.
MSTR 股票最近的突破可能会成为比特币飙升至 70,000 美元水平的主要催化剂。
Key Notes
要点
The world’s largest corporate Bitcoin BTC $62 555 24h volatility: 0.8% Market cap: $1.24 T Vol. 24h: $32.19 B holder, MicroStrategy, saw its stock price surging more than 6% on Monday, hitting a six-month high above $190 levels. In its reports, 10x Research stated that the MSTR share price is on the cusp of a six-month breakout.
全球最大企业比特币 BTC $62 555 24小时波动率:0.8% 市值:$1.24 T Vol. 24 小时:32.19 美元 B 股持有者 MicroStrategy 周一股价飙升逾 6%,触及 190 美元以上的六个月新高。 10x Research 在其报告中表示,MSTR 股价正处于六个月突破的风口浪尖。
This could be positive for the Bitcoin price which has continued to trade under pressure since the beginning of October. At press time, BTC price is trading 2% down slipping under $62,500 levels with bears taking charge before the US CPI data release on Thursday.
这可能对比特币价格有利,比特币价格自 10 月初以来一直在压力下交易。截至发稿时,BTC 价格下跌 2%,跌破 62,500 美元水平,在周四美国消费者物价指数 (CPI) 数据发布之前,空头占据主导地位。
10x Research noted that the breakout in the Microstrategy stock price would be bullish for Bitcoin pushing it higher for the rest of October. Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said that the MSTR stock surging past $180 could lead to additional bullish momentum. However, he noted that the stock price is already 44% more expensive in comparison to BTC.
10x Research 指出,Microstrategy 股价的突破将利好比特币,推动其在 10 月份剩余时间走高。 10x Research 创始人马库斯·蒂伦 (Markus Thielen) 表示,MSTR 股价飙升至 180 美元以上可能会带来额外的看涨势头。然而,他指出,与 BTC 相比,股价已经贵了 44%。
“Market makers may be forced to hedge their short gamma exposure as they likely sold calls to retail investors), and hedge funds holding $4.6 billion in short positions on MicroStrategy shares could face pressure to cover those shorts if the price surpasses the $180 mark,” Thielen wrote.
“做市商可能被迫对冲他们的空头伽玛风险,因为他们可能向散户投资者出售看涨期权),如果价格超过 180 美元大关,持有 46 亿美元 MicroStrategy 股票空头头寸的对冲基金可能面临回补这些空头头寸的压力。”蒂伦写道。
The MSTR stock rally could prompt MicroStrategy to take on additional debt to acquire more Bitcoin, as demand for the company’s notes has remained strong, with each issuance being consistently upsized, Thielen stated in the report.
Thielen 在报告中表示,MSTR 股票上涨可能会促使 MicroStrategy 承担额外债务以收购更多比特币,因为对该公司票据的需求仍然强劲,而且每次发行的规模都在不断扩大。
“Raising even more debt to purchase bitcoin seems logical. A breakout in MicroStrategy’s stock could have a ‘tail wags the dog’ effect, where the momentum in its shares positively impacts Bitcoin’s price, creating a feedback loop,” noted Thielen.
“筹集更多债务来购买比特币似乎是合乎逻辑的。 MicroStrategy 股票的突破可能会产生“尾巴摇狗”效应,即其股票的势头对比特币的价格产生积极影响,从而形成反馈循环,”Thielen 指出。
Bitcoin Price Faces Rejection at $64,000
比特币价格面临 64,000 美元的拒绝
The bitcoin price has faced rejection once again at $64,000 this week and has been heading lower back to its support levels of $60,000. Socio-political events appear to be the key factor limiting Bitcoin’s upside, despite the global monetary base (M2) expanding from $104 trillion in June to $108 trillion in October. Bitcoin has faced multiple rejections at the $68,000 resistance level, indicating that the recent rally to $64,000 is unlikely driven by the U.S. fiscal situation.
比特币价格本周再次面临 64,000 美元的阻力,并一直回落至 60,000 美元的支撑位。尽管全球货币基础(M2)从 6 月份的 104 万亿美元扩大到 10 月份的 108 万亿美元,但社会政治事件似乎是限制比特币上涨的关键因素。比特币在 68,000 美元阻力位多次遭到拒绝,这表明近期反弹至 64,000 美元不太可能是由美国财政状况推动的。
There have been multiple factors that have been playing the spoiled sport for Bitcoin. For example, the escalating war in the Middle East, the uncertainty in global macros, and the upcoming US presidential elections next month in November.
有多种因素导致比特币的游戏被破坏。比如中东战事不断升级、全球宏观经济的不确定性以及下个月11月即将举行的美国总统选举等。
Last week, the data released for US jobs data reduced the odds of an economic recession. However, it has also reduced the probability of another 50 bps rate cut in November. Thus, the higher interest rates will keep investors risk averse with less capital inflows into crypto.
上周公布的美国就业数据降低了经济衰退的可能性。不过,这也降低了11月份再次降息50个基点的可能性。因此,较高的利率将使投资者规避风险,减少流入加密货币的资本。
Bhushan is a FinTech enthusiast and holds a good flair in understanding financial markets. His interest in economics and finance draw his attention towards the new emerging Blockchain Technology and Cryptocurrency markets. He is continuously in a learning process and keeps himself motivated by sharing his acquired knowledge. In free time he reads thriller fictions novels and sometimes explore his culinary skills.
Bhushan 是一位金融科技爱好者,对金融市场有着很好的了解。他对经济和金融的兴趣引起了他对新兴区块链技术和加密货币市场的关注。他不断地处于学习过程中,并通过分享所学到的知识来保持自己的动力。在空闲时间,他会阅读惊悚小说,有时还会探索自己的烹饪技巧。
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