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根据高盛的分析,到 2024 年,黄金的波动率将明显高于比特币。
Bitcoin (BTC) surged over 40% this year, outperforming major equity indices, fixed-income securities, gold and even oil, which surged on the back of geopolitical tensions.
比特币 (BTC) 今年飙升超过 40%,跑赢主要股指、固定收益证券、黄金甚至石油,这些股指因地缘政治紧张局势而飙升。
However, its stellar performance in absolute terms is not sufficient to compensate for its volatility, according to data tracked by Goldman Sachs.
然而,根据高盛追踪的数据,其绝对的出色表现不足以弥补其波动性。
Bitcoin's year-to-date return to volatility ratio is under 2%, significantly lower than gold's industry-leading risk-adjusted return of around 3%. The ratio gauges the return an investment generates per unit of risk/volatility. Gold gained 28% in absolute terms.
比特币年初至今的波动率回报率低于 2%,明显低于黄金行业领先的约 3% 的风险调整回报率。该比率衡量每单位风险/波动性投资产生的回报。黄金绝对值上涨28%。
In fact, only Ethereum's native token ether, Japan's TOPIX index and the S&P GSCI Energy Index have lower return to volatility ratios among non-fixed income growth-sensitive investments, according to a chart in Goldman's Oct. 7 note titled "Oil on the boil."
事实上,根据高盛 10 月 7 日题为“石油沸腾”的报告中的图表,在非固定收益增长敏感型投资中,只有以太坊原生代币以太币、日本东证股价指数 (TOPIX) 和标普高盛能源指数 (S&P GSCI Energy Index) 的波动率回报率较低。 ”。
That relatively low risk-adjusted performance validates crypto skeptics' long-held view that bitcoin is too volatile to become a safe haven like gold.
这种相对较低的风险调整后表现证实了加密货币怀疑论者长期以来的观点,即比特币波动性太大,无法成为像黄金一样的避风港。
It also helps explain why gold rose and bitcoin fell alongside equity markets last week after Iran launched missiles at Israel, ratcheting up tensions in the Middle East.
这也有助于解释为什么上周伊朗向以色列发射导弹、加剧中东紧张局势后,黄金上涨而比特币与股市一起下跌。
The low risk-adjusted returns make directional bets unattractive and likely explain the popularity of the bitcoin cash and carry arbitrage among traditional institutions. The arbitrage strategy allows traders to bypass price volatility risks while profiting from price discrepancies between the spot and futures markets.
风险调整后的低回报使得定向押注缺乏吸引力,这可能解释了比特币现金和套利在传统机构中的流行。套利策略允许交易者绕过价格波动风险,同时从现货和期货市场之间的价格差异中获利。
12:25 UTC: Corrects BTC and gold's YTD return to volatility ratios to less than 2% and around 3%, respectively.
12:25 UTC:将 BTC 和黄金的年初至今波动率回报率分别修正为低于 2% 和 3% 左右。
Omkar Godbole is a Co-Managing Editor on CoinDesk's Markets team.
Omkar Godbole 是 CoinDesk 市场团队的联合总编辑。
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