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根據高盛的分析,到 2024 年,黃金的波動率將明顯高於比特幣。
Bitcoin (BTC) surged over 40% this year, outperforming major equity indices, fixed-income securities, gold and even oil, which surged on the back of geopolitical tensions.
比特幣 (BTC) 今年飆升超過 40%,跑贏主要股指、固定收益證券、黃金甚至石油,這些股指因地緣政治緊張局勢而飆升。
However, its stellar performance in absolute terms is not sufficient to compensate for its volatility, according to data tracked by Goldman Sachs.
然而,根據高盛追蹤的數據,其絕對的出色表現不足以彌補其波動性。
Bitcoin's year-to-date return to volatility ratio is under 2%, significantly lower than gold's industry-leading risk-adjusted return of around 3%. The ratio gauges the return an investment generates per unit of risk/volatility. Gold gained 28% in absolute terms.
比特幣年初至今的波動率回報率低於 2%,明顯低於黃金行業領先的約 3% 的風險調整回報率。此比率衡量每單位風險/波動性投資所產生的回報。黃金絕對值上漲28%。
In fact, only Ethereum's native token ether, Japan's TOPIX index and the S&P GSCI Energy Index have lower return to volatility ratios among non-fixed income growth-sensitive investments, according to a chart in Goldman's Oct. 7 note titled "Oil on the boil."
事實上,根據高盛10 月7 日題為「石油沸騰」的報告中的圖表,在非固定收益成長敏感型投資中,只有以太坊原生代幣以太幣、日本東證股價指數(TOPIX) 和標普高盛能源指數(S&P GSCI Energy Index) 的波動率報酬率較低。
That relatively low risk-adjusted performance validates crypto skeptics' long-held view that bitcoin is too volatile to become a safe haven like gold.
這種相對較低的風險調整後表現證實了加密貨幣懷疑論者長期以來的觀點,即比特幣波動性太大,無法成為像黃金一樣的避風港。
It also helps explain why gold rose and bitcoin fell alongside equity markets last week after Iran launched missiles at Israel, ratcheting up tensions in the Middle East.
這也有助於解釋為什麼上周伊朗向以色列發射飛彈、加劇中東緊張局勢後,黃金上漲而比特幣與股市一起下跌。
The low risk-adjusted returns make directional bets unattractive and likely explain the popularity of the bitcoin cash and carry arbitrage among traditional institutions. The arbitrage strategy allows traders to bypass price volatility risks while profiting from price discrepancies between the spot and futures markets.
風險調整後的低迴報使得定向押注缺乏吸引力,這可能解釋了比特幣現金和套利在傳統機構中的流行。套利策略允許交易者繞過價格波動風險,同時從現貨和期貨市場之間的價格差異中獲利。
12:25 UTC: Corrects BTC and gold's YTD return to volatility ratios to less than 2% and around 3%, respectively.
12:25 UTC:將 BTC 和黃金的年初至今波動率回報率分別修正為低於 2% 和 3% 左右。
Omkar Godbole is a Co-Managing Editor on CoinDesk's Markets team.
Omkar Godbole 是 CoinDesk 市場團隊的共同總編輯。
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