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一位观察家表示,这种分歧正在“为大事奠定基础”。
Bitcoin (BTC) is typically seen to be moving in tandem with the S&P 500, but options market pricing is indicating divergent trends in the lead-up to the U.S. elections.
比特币 (BTC) 通常被视为与标准普尔 500 指数同步波动,但期权市场定价显示美国大选前夕的不同趋势。
On Monday, bitcoin options listed on Deribit showed a noticeable skew (bias) for short-term calls relative to puts, capturing the U.S. election and its result, due Nov. 8, according to data tracked by Block Scholes.
根据 Block Scholes 追踪的数据,周一,Deribit 上列出的比特币期权显示,短期看涨期权相对于看跌期权存在明显的偏差(偏差),反映了 11 月 8 日到期的美国大选及其结果。
However, short-term options tied to the S&P 500 showed a bias for put options.
然而,与标准普尔 500 指数挂钩的短期期权显示出对看跌期权的偏好。
A relative stronger demand for bitcoin calls is a sign of traders anticipating upside volatility or higher price movements around election time. A call option gives the buyer an asymmetric upside, allowing the entity to hedge against or profit from a price rally.
对比特币看涨期权的需求相对较强,表明交易者预计选举期间价格会出现上行波动或上涨。看涨期权为买方提供了不对称的上涨空间,使实体能够对冲价格上涨或从价格上涨中获利。
The bias for the S&P 500 puts suggests fears of downside volatility because a put option offers protection from price losses. Note that it's common for the index options skew to show a bias for puts due to several reasons, including tail risk hedging by portfolio managers.
标准普尔 500 指数看跌期权的偏向表明人们对下行波动的担忧,因为看跌期权可以防止价格损失。请注意,由于多种原因(包括投资组合经理的尾部风险对冲),指数期权偏向看跌期权表现出偏差是很常见的。
Still, the divergence between bitcoin and S&P 500 options is "setting the stage for something big," according to Block Scholes' CEO and Founder Eamonn Gashier.
尽管如此,Block Scholes 首席执行官兼创始人 Eamonn Gashier 表示,比特币和标准普尔 500 指数期权之间的差异正在“为大事奠定基础”。
"Either the strong positive correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 is about to break and flip negative, or one of these markets is mispriced. The excitement lies in the uncertainty -- are we on the brink of seeing Bitcoin decouple from equities, or are traders in one market about to get caught off-guard?," Gashier told CoinDesk.
“要么比特币与标准普尔 500 指数之间的强正相关关系即将被打破并转为负值,要么其中一个市场定价错误。令人兴奋的是不确定性——我们是否即将看到比特币与股票脱钩,或者一个市场的交易者会措手不及吗?”Gashier 告诉 CoinDesk。
Some crypto traders 'sell volatility'It may seem counterintuitive to bet on a dull price action or volatility drop ahead of a binary event like the U.S. election, but some traders have been doing just that.
一些加密货币交易员“出售波动性” 在美国大选等二元事件之前押注价格走势平淡或波动性下降似乎有悖常理,但一些交易员一直在这样做。
The implied volatility (IV) for the Nov. 8 election expiry options trading on Deribit has declined from an annualized 62% to 55%, according to data tracked by crypto liquidity provider Wintermute. That's a sign of traders setting up volatility-bearish strategies. The IV is influenced by the demand for options.
根据加密货币流动性提供商 Wintermute 跟踪的数据,Deribit 上 11 月 8 日选举到期期权交易的隐含波动率 (IV) 已从年化 62% 下降至 55%。这是交易者制定波动性看跌策略的迹象。 IV 受期权需求的影响。
"Traders have sold volatility here via strangles and straddles and volatility spreads. Most of this positioning is around the $65,000 strike," Jake Ostrovskis, OTC Trader at Wintermute, told CoinDesk.
Wintermute 场外交易员 Jake Ostrovskis 告诉 CoinDesk:“交易者通过勒跨式期权、跨式期权和波动率价差卖出了波动率。大部分头寸都在 65,000 美元的执行价附近。”
"All of these trades benefit from reduced volatility – thus betting realized trades under implied as these events have done in recent history," Ostrovskis added.
奥斯特洛夫斯基斯补充道:“所有这些交易都受益于波动性的降低,因此押注已实现的交易,正如这些事件在近代历史上发生的那样。”
Selling straddles and strangles means selling both call and put options in a bet that the underlying asset's price will remain largely rangebound. The seller collects the premium, which is retained if the price stays in a narrow range till expiry. However, it's a risky strategy that is better suited to savvy traders with ample capital supply because if the volatility spikes, losses can quickly mount, far exceeding the premium received.
卖出跨式期权和宽跨式期权意味着卖出看涨期权和看跌期权,押注标的资产的价格将在很大程度上保持区间波动。卖方收取溢价,如果价格在到期前保持在窄幅波动范围内,则保留溢价。然而,这是一种有风险的策略,更适合拥有充足资金供应的精明交易者,因为如果波动性飙升,损失可能会迅速增加,远远超过收到的溢价。
According to the FT, the tight presidential race has the S&P 500 and the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, traders are betting on a volatility boom through the VIX call options.
据英国《金融时报》报道,总统竞选的激烈程度对标普 500 指数和 CBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 至关重要,交易员通过 VIX 看涨期权押注波动性繁荣。
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