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一位觀察家表示,這種分歧正在「為大事奠定基礎」。
Bitcoin (BTC) is typically seen to be moving in tandem with the S&P 500, but options market pricing is indicating divergent trends in the lead-up to the U.S. elections.
比特幣 (BTC) 通常被視為與標準普爾 500 指數同步波動,但選擇權市場定價顯示美國大選前夕的不同趨勢。
On Monday, bitcoin options listed on Deribit showed a noticeable skew (bias) for short-term calls relative to puts, capturing the U.S. election and its result, due Nov. 8, according to data tracked by Block Scholes.
根據 Block Scholes 追蹤的數據,週一,Deribit 上列出的比特幣選擇權顯示,短期看漲期權相對於看跌期權存在明顯的偏差(偏差),反映了 11 月 8 日到期的美國大選及其結果。
However, short-term options tied to the S&P 500 showed a bias for put options.
然而,與標準普爾 500 指數掛鉤的短期選擇權顯示出對看跌選擇權的偏好。
A relative stronger demand for bitcoin calls is a sign of traders anticipating upside volatility or higher price movements around election time. A call option gives the buyer an asymmetric upside, allowing the entity to hedge against or profit from a price rally.
比特幣看漲選擇權的需求相對較強,顯示交易者預計選舉期間價格會出現上行波動或上漲。買權為買方提供了不對稱的上漲空間,使實體能夠對沖價格上漲或從價格上漲中獲利。
The bias for the S&P 500 puts suggests fears of downside volatility because a put option offers protection from price losses. Note that it's common for the index options skew to show a bias for puts due to several reasons, including tail risk hedging by portfolio managers.
標準普爾 500 指數看跌期權的偏差表明人們對下行波動的擔憂,因為看跌期權可以防止價格損失。請注意,由於多種原因(包括投資組合經理的尾部風險對沖),指數選擇權偏向看跌選擇權表現出偏差是很常見的。
Still, the divergence between bitcoin and S&P 500 options is "setting the stage for something big," according to Block Scholes' CEO and Founder Eamonn Gashier.
儘管如此,Block Scholes 執行長兼創辦人 Eamonn Gashier 表示,比特幣和標準普爾 500 指數選擇權之間的差異正在「為大事奠定基礎」。
"Either the strong positive correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 is about to break and flip negative, or one of these markets is mispriced. The excitement lies in the uncertainty -- are we on the brink of seeing Bitcoin decouple from equities, or are traders in one market about to get caught off-guard?," Gashier told CoinDesk.
「要么比特幣與標準普爾500 指數之間的強正相關關係即將被打破並轉為負值,要么其中一個市場定價錯誤。令人興奮的是不確定性——我們是否即將看到比特幣與股票脫鉤,或者一個市場的交易者會措手不及嗎?
Some crypto traders 'sell volatility'It may seem counterintuitive to bet on a dull price action or volatility drop ahead of a binary event like the U.S. election, but some traders have been doing just that.
一些加密貨幣交易員「出售波動性」 在美國大選等二元事件之前押注價格走勢平淡或波動性下降似乎有悖常理,但一些交易員一直在這樣做。
The implied volatility (IV) for the Nov. 8 election expiry options trading on Deribit has declined from an annualized 62% to 55%, according to data tracked by crypto liquidity provider Wintermute. That's a sign of traders setting up volatility-bearish strategies. The IV is influenced by the demand for options.
根據加密貨幣流動性提供者 Wintermute 追蹤的數據,Deribit 上 11 月 8 日選舉到期選擇權交易的隱含波動率 (IV) 已從年化 62% 下降至 55%。這是交易者制定波動性看跌策略的跡象。 IV 受選擇權需求的影響。
"Traders have sold volatility here via strangles and straddles and volatility spreads. Most of this positioning is around the $65,000 strike," Jake Ostrovskis, OTC Trader at Wintermute, told CoinDesk.
Wintermute 場外交易員 Jake Ostrovskis 告訴 CoinDesk:“交易者通過勒跨式期權、跨式期權和波動率價差賣出了波動率。大部分頭寸都在 65,000 美元的執行價附近。”
"All of these trades benefit from reduced volatility – thus betting realized trades under implied as these events have done in recent history," Ostrovskis added.
奧斯特洛夫斯基斯補充說:“所有這些交易都受益於波動性的降低,因此押注已實現的交易,正如這些事件在近代歷史上發生的那樣。”
Selling straddles and strangles means selling both call and put options in a bet that the underlying asset's price will remain largely rangebound. The seller collects the premium, which is retained if the price stays in a narrow range till expiry. However, it's a risky strategy that is better suited to savvy traders with ample capital supply because if the volatility spikes, losses can quickly mount, far exceeding the premium received.
賣出跨式選擇權和寬跨式選擇權意味著賣出買權和賣權,押注標的資產的價格將在很大程度上保持區間波動。賣方收取溢價,如果價格在到期前保持在窄幅波動範圍內,則保留溢價。然而,這是一種有風險的策略,更適合擁有充足資金供應的精明交易者,因為如果波動性飆升,損失可能會迅速增加,遠遠超過收到的溢價。
According to the FT, the tight presidential race has the S&P 500 and the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, traders are betting on a volatility boom through the VIX call options.
根據英國《金融時報》報道,總統競選的激烈程度對標普 500 指數和 CBOE 波動率指數 (VIX) 至關重要,交易員透過 VIX 看漲期權押注波動性繁榮。
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