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MSTR 股票最近的突破可能會成為比特幣飆升至 70,000 美元水平的主要催化劑。
The recent breakout in the MSTR stock could provide a major catalyst for Bitcoin to surge to $70,000 levels.
MSTR 股票最近的突破可能會成為比特幣飆升至 70,000 美元水平的主要催化劑。
Key Notes
重點
The world’s largest corporate Bitcoin BTC $62 555 24h volatility: 0.8% Market cap: $1.24 T Vol. 24h: $32.19 B holder, MicroStrategy, saw its stock price surging more than 6% on Monday, hitting a six-month high above $190 levels. In its reports, 10x Research stated that the MSTR share price is on the cusp of a six-month breakout.
全球最大企業比特幣 BTC $62 555 24小時波動率:0.8% 市值:$1.24 T Vol. 24 小時:32.19 美元 B 股持有者 MicroStrategy 週一股價飆漲逾 6%,觸及 190 美元以上的六個月新高。 10x Research 在報告中表示,MSTR 股價正處於六個月突破的風口浪尖。
This could be positive for the Bitcoin price which has continued to trade under pressure since the beginning of October. At press time, BTC price is trading 2% down slipping under $62,500 levels with bears taking charge before the US CPI data release on Thursday.
這可能對比特幣價格有利,比特幣價格自 10 月初以來一直在壓力下交易。截至發稿時,BTC 價格下跌 2%,跌破 62,500 美元水平,在周四美國消費者物價指數 (CPI) 數據發布之前,空頭佔據主導地位。
10x Research noted that the breakout in the Microstrategy stock price would be bullish for Bitcoin pushing it higher for the rest of October. Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said that the MSTR stock surging past $180 could lead to additional bullish momentum. However, he noted that the stock price is already 44% more expensive in comparison to BTC.
10x Research 指出,Microstrategy 股價的突破將利好比特幣,推動其在 10 月剩餘時間走高。 10x Research 創辦人 Markus Thielen 表示,MSTR 股價飆升至 180 美元以上可能會帶來額外的看漲勢頭。然而,他指出,與 BTC 相比,股價已經貴了 44%。
“Market makers may be forced to hedge their short gamma exposure as they likely sold calls to retail investors), and hedge funds holding $4.6 billion in short positions on MicroStrategy shares could face pressure to cover those shorts if the price surpasses the $180 mark,” Thielen wrote.
「做市商可能被迫對沖他們的空頭伽瑪風險,因為他們可能向散戶投資者出售看漲期權),如果價格超過180 美元大關,持有46 億美元MicroStrategy 股票空頭頭寸的對沖基金可能面臨回補這些空頭部位的壓力。
The MSTR stock rally could prompt MicroStrategy to take on additional debt to acquire more Bitcoin, as demand for the company’s notes has remained strong, with each issuance being consistently upsized, Thielen stated in the report.
Thielen 在報告中表示,MSTR 股票上漲可能會促使 MicroStrategy 承擔額外債務以收購更多比特幣,因為對該公司票據的需求仍然強勁,而且每次發行的規模都在不斷擴大。
“Raising even more debt to purchase bitcoin seems logical. A breakout in MicroStrategy’s stock could have a ‘tail wags the dog’ effect, where the momentum in its shares positively impacts Bitcoin’s price, creating a feedback loop,” noted Thielen.
「籌集更多債務來購買比特幣似乎是合乎邏輯的。 MicroStrategy 股票的突破可能會產生「尾巴搖狗」效應,即其股票的勢頭對比特幣的價格產生積極影響,從而形成反饋循環,」Thielen 指出。
Bitcoin Price Faces Rejection at $64,000
比特幣價格面臨 64,000 美元的拒絕
The bitcoin price has faced rejection once again at $64,000 this week and has been heading lower back to its support levels of $60,000. Socio-political events appear to be the key factor limiting Bitcoin’s upside, despite the global monetary base (M2) expanding from $104 trillion in June to $108 trillion in October. Bitcoin has faced multiple rejections at the $68,000 resistance level, indicating that the recent rally to $64,000 is unlikely driven by the U.S. fiscal situation.
比特幣價格本週再次面臨 64,000 美元的阻力,並一直回落至 60,000 美元的支撐位。儘管全球貨幣基礎(M2)從 6 月的 104 兆美元擴大到 10 月的 108 兆美元,但社會政治事件似乎是限制比特幣上漲的關鍵因素。比特幣在 68,000 美元阻力位多次遭到拒絕,這表明近期反彈至 64,000 美元不太可能是由美國財政狀況推動的。
There have been multiple factors that have been playing the spoiled sport for Bitcoin. For example, the escalating war in the Middle East, the uncertainty in global macros, and the upcoming US presidential elections next month in November.
有多種因素導致比特幣的遊戲被破壞。例如中東戰事不斷升級、全球宏觀經濟的不確定性以及下個月11月即將舉行的美國總統大選等。
Last week, the data released for US jobs data reduced the odds of an economic recession. However, it has also reduced the probability of another 50 bps rate cut in November. Thus, the higher interest rates will keep investors risk averse with less capital inflows into crypto.
上週公佈的美國就業數據降低了經濟衰退的可能性。不過,這也降低了11月再次降息50個基點的可能性。因此,較高的利率將使投資者規避風險,並減少流入加密貨幣的資本。
Bhushan is a FinTech enthusiast and holds a good flair in understanding financial markets. His interest in economics and finance draw his attention towards the new emerging Blockchain Technology and Cryptocurrency markets. He is continuously in a learning process and keeps himself motivated by sharing his acquired knowledge. In free time he reads thriller fictions novels and sometimes explore his culinary skills.
Bhushan 是一位金融科技愛好者,對金融市場有著很好的了解。他對經濟和金融的興趣引起了他對新興區塊鏈技術和加密貨幣市場的關注。他不斷地處於學習過程中,並透過分享所學到的知識來保持自己的動力。在空閒時間,他會閱讀驚悚小說,有時還會探索自己的烹飪技巧。
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