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MicroStrategy MSTR 已成为许多投资者进入比特币 BTC/USD 的一种方式。从过去三年两者的回报来看,投资 MicroStrategy 远远优于投资比特币。
Technology company MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) has become a popular way for many investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC/USD). But a closer look at the company's financials reveals that there's more to the story than meets the eye.
科技公司 MicroStrategy(纳斯达克股票代码:MSTR)已成为许多投资者获得比特币(加密货币:BTC/USD)的流行方式。但仔细观察该公司的财务状况就会发现,事情的真相远比表面看上去的要复杂。
Here's a breakdown of MicroStrategy's lesser-known software business and how it contributes to the company's overall value proposition:
以下是 MicroStrategy 鲜为人知的软件业务的细分以及它如何为公司的整体价值主张做出贡献:
MicroStrategy's business can be broadly divided into two segments: its bitcoin purchases and its software operations. The latter is primarily driven by its MicroStrategy ONE data analytics software, which offers business intelligence tools and enables users to leverage machine learning and create customized analytics.
MicroStrategy 的业务大致可分为两个部分:比特币购买和软件运营。后者主要由 MicroStrategy ONE 数据分析软件驱动,该软件提供商业智能工具,使用户能够利用机器学习并创建定制分析。
However, this segment of the company's business has been facing some challenges, with a decline in revenue from $122 million in Q1 2023 to $111 million in Q2 2024, a decrease of 9%. The software business is also虧損, and the losses are worsening. In Q1 2023, the虧損 was half a million dollars, but by Q2 2024, it had surged to nearly $19 million on a non-adjusted basis.
然而,该公司的这一部分业务一直面临一些挑战,收入从2023年第一季度的1.22亿美元下降至2024年第二季度的1.11亿美元,下降了9%。软件业务也在亏损,而且亏损还在恶化。 2023 年第一季度,亏损为 50 万美元,但到 2024 年第二季度,未经调整的亏损已飙升至近 1900 万美元。
When adjusted, the business was profitable in both periods, with $2 million in adjusted net income reported last quarter. But overall, the software business generates minimal profits.
调整后,该业务在两个时期均实现盈利,上季度报告的调整后净利润为 200 万美元。但总体而言,软件业务的利润微乎其微。
Despite the company's claims that the business is poised for growth and that its unprofitability now doesn't preclude future earnings, the numbers speak for themselves. Last quarter, the software segment's subscriptions and services revenue did increase by 21%.
尽管该公司声称该业务有望增长,而且目前的亏损并不妨碍未来的盈利,但数字不言而喻。上季度,软件部门的订阅和服务收入确实增长了 21%。
However, support revenue still accounts for over half of the total software business revenue, and overall revenue still declined by 7%. On the other hand, the company's subscription billings, which indicate future revenue, increased by 45%.
不过,支持收入仍占软件业务总收入的一半以上,整体收入仍下降7%。另一方面,该公司的订阅账单(预示着未来的收入)增长了 45%。
These increases could support the argument that the software business may generate higher revenue in the future. But with only $2 million in adjusted net income last quarter, it's difficult to conclude that the software business alone is valued at $16 billion, even considering potential future revenue.
这些增长可以支持软件业务未来可能产生更高收入的论点。但由于上季度调整后净利润仅为 200 万美元,即使考虑到未来的潜在收入,也很难得出仅软件业务价值就达到 160 亿美元的结论。
Another key value proposition that MicroStrategy highlights, and which many investors have come to associate the company with, is its ability to incur very low-cost debt to acquire bitcoin. The company has over $3.8 billion in debt, primarily through convertible bonds, at an average interest rate of 1.6%.
MicroStrategy 强调的另一个关键价值主张是它能够以非常低的成本举债来购买比特币,许多投资者已经将此与该公司联系在一起。该公司拥有超过 38 亿美元的债务,主要是通过可转换债券,平均利率为 1.6%。
This is significantly lower than the rate at which any individual could borrow funds, given that the effective Fed Funds Rate is around 5%. Recently, the company announced that it completed another offering of $1 billion in convertible bonds, which will further reduce the company's average interest rate to 1.4%.
鉴于有效联邦基金利率约为 5%,这明显低于任何个人可以借入资金的利率。近日,该公司宣布完成另一次10亿美元可转换债券发行,这将进一步降低公司平均利率至1.4%。
By investing in Microاستراتژی, investors can gain leveraged exposure to bitcoin at a much lower cost than they could otherwise. This is why many who are bullish on bitcoin are placing a substantial premium on Microاستراتژی over bitcoin itself.
通过投资微型货币,投资者可以以比其他方式低得多的成本获得比特币的杠杆敞口。这就是为什么许多看好比特币的人对微型货币的溢价远高于比特币本身。
However, it's crucial to note that convertible debt can be converted into equity, potentially diluting shareholders' ownership stakes. This would significantly reduce the value of the low-cost debt strategy, especially considering that nearly 90% of the company's debt is convertible.
然而,值得注意的是,可转换债务可以转换为股权,可能会稀释股东的所有权股份。这将大大降低低成本债务策略的价值,特别是考虑到该公司近 90% 的债务是可转换的。
The company addresses this concept with its BTC Yield metric, which aims to show the value addition of investing in Microاستراتژی over bitcoin by accounting for potential dilution. It achieved a positive BTC Yield of 12% in 2024 and anticipates it to be between 4% and 8% over the next three years, indicating that the strategy is adding value.
该公司通过其 BTC 收益率指标来解决这一概念,该指标旨在通过考虑潜在的稀释来显示投资 Micro越好比特币的附加值。它在 2024 年实现了 12% 的正 BTC 收益率,并预计未来三年将在 4% 至 8% 之间,这表明该策略正在增加价值。
But is it adding enough value to justify the company's $16 billion valuation over its bitcoin holdings? In my opinion, the company's valuation is over double the value of its bitcoin, while it only provides a 4% to 8% yield compared to paying for bitcoin itself. The article "MicroStrategy's Returns Are 3X Higher Than Bitcoin: Time to Buy?" originally appeared on MarketBeat.
但它是否增加了足够的价值来证明该公司对其持有的比特币 160 亿美元的估值是合理的?在我看来,该公司的估值是其比特币价值的两倍多,而与支付比特币本身相比,它只提供 4% 至 8% 的收益率。文章“MicroStrategy 的回报率比比特币高 3 倍:是时候买入了吗?”最初出现在 MarketBeat 上。
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