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MicroStrategy MSTR 已成為許多投資者進入比特幣 BTC/USD 的一種方式。從過去三年兩者的回報來看,投資 MicroStrategy 遠優於投資比特幣。
Technology company MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) has become a popular way for many investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC/USD). But a closer look at the company's financials reveals that there's more to the story than meets the eye.
科技公司 MicroStrategy(納斯達克股票代碼:MSTR)已成為許多投資者獲得比特幣(加密貨幣:BTC/USD)的熱門方式。但仔細觀察該公司的財務狀況就會發現,事情的真相遠比表面看上去的還要複雜。
Here's a breakdown of MicroStrategy's lesser-known software business and how it contributes to the company's overall value proposition:
以下是 MicroStrategy 鮮為人知的軟體業務的細分以及它如何為公司的整體價值主張做出貢獻:
MicroStrategy's business can be broadly divided into two segments: its bitcoin purchases and its software operations. The latter is primarily driven by its MicroStrategy ONE data analytics software, which offers business intelligence tools and enables users to leverage machine learning and create customized analytics.
MicroStrategy 的業務大致可分為兩個部分:比特幣購買和軟體營運。後者主要由 MicroStrategy ONE 數據分析軟體驅動,該軟體提供商業智慧工具,使用戶能夠利用機器學習並創建客製化分析。
However, this segment of the company's business has been facing some challenges, with a decline in revenue from $122 million in Q1 2023 to $111 million in Q2 2024, a decrease of 9%. The software business is also虧損, and the losses are worsening. In Q1 2023, the虧損 was half a million dollars, but by Q2 2024, it had surged to nearly $19 million on a non-adjusted basis.
然而,該公司這一部分的業務一直面臨一些挑戰,營收從2023年第一季的1.22億美元下降至2024年第二季的1.11億美元,下降了9%。軟體業務也在虧損,而且虧損還在惡化。 2023 年第一季度,虧損為 50 萬美元,但到 2024 年第二季度,未經調整的虧損已飆升至近 1,900 萬美元。
When adjusted, the business was profitable in both periods, with $2 million in adjusted net income reported last quarter. But overall, the software business generates minimal profits.
調整後,該業務在兩個時期均實現盈利,上季報告的調整後淨利潤為 200 萬美元。但整體而言,軟體業務的利潤微乎其微。
Despite the company's claims that the business is poised for growth and that its unprofitability now doesn't preclude future earnings, the numbers speak for themselves. Last quarter, the software segment's subscriptions and services revenue did increase by 21%.
儘管該公司聲稱該業務有望成長,而且目前的虧損並不妨礙未來的盈利,但數字不言而喻。上季度,軟體部門的訂閱和服務收入確實成長了 21%。
However, support revenue still accounts for over half of the total software business revenue, and overall revenue still declined by 7%. On the other hand, the company's subscription billings, which indicate future revenue, increased by 45%.
不過,支援收入仍佔軟體業務總收入的一半以上,整體收入仍下降7%。另一方面,該公司的訂閱帳單(預示著未來的收入)成長了 45%。
These increases could support the argument that the software business may generate higher revenue in the future. But with only $2 million in adjusted net income last quarter, it's difficult to conclude that the software business alone is valued at $16 billion, even considering potential future revenue.
這些成長可以支持軟體業務未來可能產生更高收入的論點。但由於上季調整後淨利僅 200 萬美元,即使考慮到未來的潛在收入,也很難得出僅軟體業務價值就達到 160 億美元的結論。
Another key value proposition that MicroStrategy highlights, and which many investors have come to associate the company with, is its ability to incur very low-cost debt to acquire bitcoin. The company has over $3.8 billion in debt, primarily through convertible bonds, at an average interest rate of 1.6%.
MicroStrategy 強調的另一個關鍵價值主張是它能夠以非常低的成本舉債來購買比特幣,許多投資者已經將此與該公司聯繫在一起。該公司擁有超過 38 億美元的債務,主要是透過可轉換債券,平均利率為 1.6%。
This is significantly lower than the rate at which any individual could borrow funds, given that the effective Fed Funds Rate is around 5%. Recently, the company announced that it completed another offering of $1 billion in convertible bonds, which will further reduce the company's average interest rate to 1.4%.
鑑於有效聯邦基金利率約為 5%,這明顯低於任何個人可以藉入資金的利率。近日,該公司宣布完成另一次10億美元可轉換債券發行,將進一步降低公司平均利率至1.4%。
By investing in Microاستراتژی, investors can gain leveraged exposure to bitcoin at a much lower cost than they could otherwise. This is why many who are bullish on bitcoin are placing a substantial premium on Microاستراتژی over bitcoin itself.
透過投資微型貨幣,投資者可以以比其他方式低得多的成本獲得比特幣的槓桿曝險。這就是為什麼許多看好比特幣的人對微型貨幣的溢價遠高於比特幣本身。
However, it's crucial to note that convertible debt can be converted into equity, potentially diluting shareholders' ownership stakes. This would significantly reduce the value of the low-cost debt strategy, especially considering that nearly 90% of the company's debt is convertible.
然而,值得注意的是,可轉換債務可以轉換為股權,可能會稀釋股東的所有權股份。這將大大降低低成本債務策略的價值,特別是考慮到該公司近 90% 的債務是可轉換的。
The company addresses this concept with its BTC Yield metric, which aims to show the value addition of investing in Microاستراتژی over bitcoin by accounting for potential dilution. It achieved a positive BTC Yield of 12% in 2024 and anticipates it to be between 4% and 8% over the next three years, indicating that the strategy is adding value.
該公司通過其 BTC 收益率指標來解決這一概念,該指標旨在通過考慮潛在的稀釋來顯示投資 Micro越好比特幣的附加值。它在 2024 年實現了 12% 的正 BTC 收益率,並預計未來三年將在 4% 至 8% 之間,這表明該策略正在增加價值。
But is it adding enough value to justify the company's $16 billion valuation over its bitcoin holdings? In my opinion, the company's valuation is over double the value of its bitcoin, while it only provides a 4% to 8% yield compared to paying for bitcoin itself. The article "MicroStrategy's Returns Are 3X Higher Than Bitcoin: Time to Buy?" originally appeared on MarketBeat.
但它是否增加了足夠的價值來證明該公司對其持有的比特幣 160 億美元的估值是合理的?在我看來,該公司的估值是其比特幣價值的兩倍多,而與支付比特幣本身相比,它只提供 4% 至 8% 的收益率。文章“MicroStrategy 的回報率比比特幣高 3 倍:是時候買入了嗎?”最初出現在 MarketBeat 上。
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