MicroStrategy $MSTR 将严重崩溃。就像2000年那样

看看与 BTC 和区块链技术相关的股票，其中一只遥遥领先于其他股票：MicroStrategy（纳斯达克股票代码：MSTR）。

MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) stock has been on a tear in recent years, thanks to the company's massive bet on Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC). But some are starting to wonder if MSTR stock is heading for the same kind of epic collapse that MicroStrategy did in the Dot Com crash in the early 2000s.

MicroStrategy（纳斯达克股票代码：MSTR）的股价近年来一直在上涨，这要归功于该公司对比特币（CRYPTO：BTC）的大量押注。但一些人开始怀疑，MSTR 股票是否会像 MicroStrategy 在 2000 年代初期互联网泡沫破裂时那样，走向同样的史诗般的崩溃。

Back then, MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor lost $60 billion in one day and was dubbed the biggest loser in the Dot-Com bubble. He also paid the SEC $8.2 million in disgorgement and a $350k civil penalty as part of a settlement related to accusations of fraudulently overstating the company's earnings and revenues.

当年，MicroStrategy 首席执行官 Michael Saylor 一天之内损失了 600 亿美元，被称为互联网泡沫中最大的输家。作为与欺诈性夸大公司收益和收入指控相关的和解协议的一部分，他还向 SEC 支付了 820 万美元的非法所得和 35 万美元的民事罚款。

Now, Saylor is once again at the center of a financial storm, but this time he's betting on Bitcoin and not overstating earnings. However, the risks are still high, and if MicroStrategy's bet on BTC goes south, the effects could be felt throughout the financial system.

现在，塞勒再次处于金融风暴的中心，但这一次他押注于比特币，并没有夸大收益。然而，风险仍然很高，如果 MicroStrategy 对 BTC 的押注失败，整个金融体系都会受到影响。

Here's a closer look at what Saylor is doing and why it could be so risky.

以下是塞勒正在做的事情以及为什么风险如此之大的详细分析。

MicroStrategy's massive bet on Bitcoin

MicroStrategy 大举押注比特币

In 2020, MicroStrategy began purchasing large amounts of Bitcoin, eventually totaling over 130,000 BTC. The company used a combination of cash on hand and proceeds from low-interest convertible notes to fund the purchases.

2020 年，MicroStrategy 开始购买大量比特币，最终总计超过 130,000 BTC。该公司利用手头现金和低息可转换票据收益来为购买提供资金。

The goal of the purchases was to generate a return on MicroStrategy's capital and to hedge against inflation. Saylor has also expressed his belief that Bitcoin is a superior store of value to fiat currencies and that it will continue to appreciate over time.

此次收购的目的是为 MicroStrategy 的资本带来回报并对冲通货膨胀。塞勒还表示，他相信比特币是比法定货币更优越的价值储存手段，并且随着时间的推移，比特币将继续升值。

So far, MicroStrategy's bet on Bitcoin has paid off handsomely. The price of BTC has soared in recent years, and MicroStrategy's stock price has followed suit. In 2023, MSTR stock is up over 200% year-to-date.

到目前为止，MicroStrategy 对比特币的押注已经获得了丰厚的回报。近年来，BTC 的价格一路飙升，MicroStrategy 的股价也随之上涨。 2023 年，MSTR 股价今年迄今已上涨 200% 以上。

But some are starting to wonder if the rally is sustainable. After all, Bitcoin is a notoriously volatile asset, and it's already had a huge run-up in price. If the price of BTC were to decline sharply, MicroStrategy's stock price would likely follow suit.

但一些人开始怀疑涨势是否可持续。毕竟，比特币是一种出了名的不稳定资产，而且其价格已经大幅上涨。如果 BTC 的价格大幅下跌，MicroStrategy 的股价可能也会随之下跌。

The risks of MicroStrategy's strategy

MicroStrategy 战略的风险

In addition to the risk of a decline in the price of Bitcoin, there are other risks associated with MicroStrategy's strategy.

除了比特币价格下跌的风险外，还存在与 MicroStrategy 策略相关的其他风险。

For example, MicroStrategy is taking on a lot of debt to finance its purchases of BTC. If the price of BTC were to decline and MicroStrategy were to experience a loss on its investment, the company could be left with a large amount of debt and a diminished ability to repay it.

例如，MicroStrategy 正在承担大量债务来为其购买 BTC 提供资金。如果 BTC 价格下跌，MicroStrategy 的投资出现损失，该公司可能会背负巨额债务，且偿还能力下降。

Another risk is that MicroStrategy's strategy could put the company at odds with regulators. For example, the SEC has already expressed concerns about the company's accounting practices related to its BTC holdings. If the SEC were to take further action against MicroStrategy, it could impact the company's ability to continue its current strategy.

另一个风险是 MicroStrategy 的战略可能会使该公司与监管机构发生冲突。例如，美国证券交易委员会已经对该公司与其持有的比特币相关的会计实践表示担忧。如果 SEC 对 MicroStrategy 采取进一步行动，可能会影响该公司继续实施当前战略的能力。

Overall, MicroStrategy's strategy is a risky one, but it has the potential to pay off handsomely. If the price of Bitcoin continues to rise and MicroStrategy is able to sell its BTC at a profit, the company could generate a substantial return on its capital. However, if the price of BTC were to decline or if MicroStrategy experiences other setbacks, the company could be left with a large amount of debt and a diminished ability to repay it.

总体而言，MicroStrategy 的策略是一项有风险的策略，但它有可能获得丰厚的回报。如果比特币的价格继续上涨，并且 MicroStrategy 能够出售其 BTC 并获利，该公司可能会产生可观的资本回报。然而，如果 BTC 的价格下跌，或者 MicroStrategy 遇到其他挫折，该公司可能会背负大量债务，且偿还能力下降。