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MicroStrategy 纳斯达克:MSTR 已成为许多投资者进入比特币 (BTC) 的一种方式。看看两人近三年的回报
MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) has become one way many investors get into Bitcoin (BTC). But how does investing in MicroStrategy compare to investing in BTC itself?
MicroStrategy(纳斯达克股票代码:MSTR)已成为许多投资者投资比特币(BTC)的一种方式。但投资 MicroStrategy 与投资 BTC 本身相比如何呢?
Based on the company’s reports of new Bitcoin purchases, the value of MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin is around $16 billion today. However, the technology company’s market capitalization is $34 billion. Somewhere in MicroStrategy, investors see an extra $18 billion in value over just its cryptocurrency.
根据该公司新购买比特币的报告,MicroStrategy 的比特币价值目前约为 160 亿美元。然而,该科技公司的市值为340亿美元。在 MicroStrategy 的某个地方,投资者看到的价值比其加密货币多了 180 亿美元。
So, where does this extra value come from? Let’s break down MicroStrategy’s lesser-known business: software.
那么,这个额外的价值从何而来呢?让我们来详细分析一下 MicroStrategy 鲜为人知的业务:软件。
MicroStrategy’s Lesser-Known Business: Software
MicroStrategy 鲜为人知的业务:软件
There are two big parts of MicroStrategy’s business: bitcoin purchases and software. The software business is based on MicroStrategy ONE data analytics software. It offers business intelligence tools, allowing users to take advantage of machine learning and create custom analytics.
MicroStrategy 的业务有两大部分:比特币购买和软件。该软件业务基于 MicroStrategy ONE 数据分析软件。它提供商业智能工具,允许用户利用机器学习并创建自定义分析。
However, revenues from this part of the business are declining. From Q1 2023 to Q2 2024, revenue went from $122 million to $111 million, a drop of 9%. The business is also unprofitable, and that unprofitability is getting worse.
然而,这部分业务的收入正在下降。从 2023 年第一季度到 2024 年第二季度,收入从 1.22 亿美元降至 1.11 亿美元,下降了 9%。该业务也无利可图,而且无利可图的情况越来越严重。
In Q1 2023, the software business’s net loss was half a million dollars. In Q2 2024, that loss has increased exponentially to nearly $19 million. These numbers are on a non-adjusted basis.
2023 年第一季度,软件业务的净亏损为 50 万美元。 2024 年第二季度,这一损失呈指数级增长,达到近 1900 万美元。这些数字未经调整。
On an adjusted basis, the business has been profitable over those periods. However, it still only brought in $2 million in adjusted net income last quarter.
在调整后的基础上,该业务在此期间一直盈利。然而,上季度调整后净利润仍仅为 200 万美元。
MicroStrategy Price Chart by TradingView
TradingView 提供的 MicroStrategy 价格图表
Still, no matter how you slice it, the software business is making little to no money. One could argue that the business is set to grow, so the fact that it isn’t making money now doesn’t mean it won’t in the future. The software business’s subscriptions and services revenue did grow by 21% last quarter.
尽管如此,无论你如何划分,软件业务都赚不到钱。有人可能会说,该业务注定会增长,所以它现在不赚钱的事实并不意味着它将来不会赚钱。上季度软件业务的订阅和服务收入确实增长了 21%。
However, over half of the software business revenue comes from the support it provides; so, revenue still fell by 7%. But its subscription billings, an indicator of future revenue, increased by 45%. These increases could breathe some life into the argument that the software business could see higher revenue in the future.
然而,超过一半的软件业务收入来自其提供的支持;因此,收入仍然下降了7%。但作为未来收入指标的订阅账单却增长了 45%。这些增长可能会给软件业务未来收入增加的论点注入一些活力。
But, with only $2 million in adjusted net income last quarter, it's hard to say that the software business is worth $16 billion, even with future revenue in mind.
但是,由于上季度调整后净利润仅为 200 万美元,即使考虑到未来的收入,也很难说软件业务的价值为 160 亿美元。
MicroStrategy’s Main Value Proposition: A Leveraged Bitcoin Investment
MicroStrategy 的主要价值主张:杠杆式比特币投资
The other big value add that MicroStrategy emphasizes, and many have come to know it for, is its ability to issue extremely low-cost debt to buy Bitcoin. Through issuing mostly convertible bonds, the company has over $3.8 billion in debt with an average interest rate of 1.6%.
MicroStrategy 强调的另一个重要附加值(许多人已经知道它)是它能够发行极低成本的债务来购买比特币。通过发行大部分可转换债券,该公司的债务超过38亿美元,平均利率为1.6%。
This is far lower than any individual would be able to borrow funds at, with the effective Fed Funds Rate at nearly 5%. The company recently announced it completed another offering of $1 billion convertible bonds. This will bring the company’s average interest rate down to 1.4%.
这远低于任何个人能够借入资金的利率,有效联邦基金利率接近 5%。该公司最近宣布完成了另一次 10 亿美元可转换债券的发行。这将使该公司的平均利率降至1.4%。
By investing in MicroStrategy, investors can get leveraged investments in Bitcoin at a far lower rate than they otherwise could. This is why many who believe in Bitcoin are putting a significant premium on MicroStrategy over Bitcoin itself.
通过投资 MicroStrategy,投资者可以以远低于其他方式的利率获得比特币杠杆投资。这就是为什么许多相信比特币的人对 MicroStrategy 的重视超过了比特币本身。
However, because convertible debt could be converted into equity, there is a potential for shareholder dilution. This would eliminate significant value from the low-cost debt strategy, especially since nearly 90% of the company’s debt is convertible.
然而,由于可转换债务可以转换为股权,因此存在股东稀释的可能性。这将消除低成本债务策略的巨大价值,特别是因为该公司近 90% 的债务都是可转换的。
MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Acquisition Is Adding Value, but Is It Enough at This Price?
MicroStrategy 的比特币收购正在增加价值,但这个价格足够了吗?
The company addresses this idea using its BTC Yield measurement. After accounting for possible dilution, this shows the added value of investing in MicroStrategy over Bitcoin. It achieved a positive BTC Yield of 12% in 2024 and expects it to be between 4% and 8% over the next three years. This shows that the strategy is adding value.
该公司通过其 BTC 收益率衡量来解决这个问题。考虑到可能的稀释后,这显示了投资 MicroStrategy 相对于比特币的附加价值。它在 2024 年实现了 12% 的 BTC 正收益率,并预计未来三年将在 4% 至 8% 之间。这表明该策略正在增加价值。
However, is it adding enough value to justify the company’s $16 billion valuation over its Bitcoin holdings? To me, the company's valuation is over double the value of its Bitcoin, while it only provides a 4% to 8% yield compared to paying for Bitcoin itself.
然而,它是否增加了足够的价值来证明该公司对其持有的比特币 160 亿美元的估值是合理的?对我来说,该公司的估值是其比特币价值的两倍多,而与支付比特币本身相比,它只提供 4% 到 8% 的收益率。
Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
Benzinga 不提供投资建议。版权所有。
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