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MicroStrategy 納斯達克:MSTR 已成為許多投資者進入比特幣 (BTC) 的一種方式。看看兩人近三年的回報
MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) has become one way many investors get into Bitcoin (BTC). But how does investing in MicroStrategy compare to investing in BTC itself?
MicroStrategy(納斯達克股票代碼:MSTR)已成為許多投資者投資比特幣(BTC)的一種方式。但投資 MicroStrategy 與投資 BTC 本身相比如何呢?
Based on the company’s reports of new Bitcoin purchases, the value of MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin is around $16 billion today. However, the technology company’s market capitalization is $34 billion. Somewhere in MicroStrategy, investors see an extra $18 billion in value over just its cryptocurrency.
根據該公司新購買比特幣的報告,MicroStrategy 的比特幣價值目前約為 160 億美元。然而,該科技公司的市值為340億美元。在 MicroStrategy 的某個地方,投資者看到的價值比其加密貨幣多了 180 億美元。
So, where does this extra value come from? Let’s break down MicroStrategy’s lesser-known business: software.
那麼,這個額外的價值從何而來呢?讓我們來詳細分析一下 MicroStrategy 鮮為人知的業務:軟體。
MicroStrategy’s Lesser-Known Business: Software
MicroStrategy 鮮為人知的業務:軟體
There are two big parts of MicroStrategy’s business: bitcoin purchases and software. The software business is based on MicroStrategy ONE data analytics software. It offers business intelligence tools, allowing users to take advantage of machine learning and create custom analytics.
MicroStrategy 的業務有兩大部分:比特幣購買和軟體。該軟體業務基於 MicroStrategy ONE 數據分析軟體。它提供商業智慧工具,允許用戶利用機器學習並創建自訂分析。
However, revenues from this part of the business are declining. From Q1 2023 to Q2 2024, revenue went from $122 million to $111 million, a drop of 9%. The business is also unprofitable, and that unprofitability is getting worse.
然而,這部分業務的收入正在下降。從 2023 年第一季到 2024 年第二季度,營收從 1.22 億美元降至 1.11 億美元,下降了 9%。該業務也無利可圖,而且無利可圖的情況越來越嚴重。
In Q1 2023, the software business’s net loss was half a million dollars. In Q2 2024, that loss has increased exponentially to nearly $19 million. These numbers are on a non-adjusted basis.
2023 年第一季度,軟體業務的淨虧損為 50 萬美元。 2024 年第二季度,這一損失呈指數級增長,達到近 1,900 萬美元。這些數字未經調整。
On an adjusted basis, the business has been profitable over those periods. However, it still only brought in $2 million in adjusted net income last quarter.
在調整後的基礎上,該業務在此期間一直盈利。然而,上季調整後淨利仍僅為 200 萬美元。
MicroStrategy Price Chart by TradingView
TradingView 提供的 MicroStrategy 價格圖表
Still, no matter how you slice it, the software business is making little to no money. One could argue that the business is set to grow, so the fact that it isn’t making money now doesn’t mean it won’t in the future. The software business’s subscriptions and services revenue did grow by 21% last quarter.
儘管如此,無論你如何劃分,軟體業務都賺不到錢。有人可能會說,該業務注定會成長,所以它現在不賺錢的事實並不意味著它將來不會賺錢。上季軟體業務的訂閱和服務收入確實成長了 21%。
However, over half of the software business revenue comes from the support it provides; so, revenue still fell by 7%. But its subscription billings, an indicator of future revenue, increased by 45%. These increases could breathe some life into the argument that the software business could see higher revenue in the future.
然而,超過一半的軟體業務收入來自其提供的支援;因此,收入仍然下降了7%。但作為未來收入指標的訂閱帳單卻增加了 45%。這些成長可能會為軟體業務未來收入增加的論點注入一些活力。
But, with only $2 million in adjusted net income last quarter, it's hard to say that the software business is worth $16 billion, even with future revenue in mind.
但是,由於上季調整後淨利僅為 200 萬美元,即使考慮到未來的收入,也很難說軟體業務的價值為 160 億美元。
MicroStrategy’s Main Value Proposition: A Leveraged Bitcoin Investment
MicroStrategy 的主要價值主張:槓桿式比特幣投資
The other big value add that MicroStrategy emphasizes, and many have come to know it for, is its ability to issue extremely low-cost debt to buy Bitcoin. Through issuing mostly convertible bonds, the company has over $3.8 billion in debt with an average interest rate of 1.6%.
MicroStrategy 強調的另一個重要附加價值(許多人已經知道它)是它能夠發行極低成本的債務來購買比特幣。透過發行大部分可轉換債券,該公司的債務超過38億美元,平均利率為1.6%。
This is far lower than any individual would be able to borrow funds at, with the effective Fed Funds Rate at nearly 5%. The company recently announced it completed another offering of $1 billion convertible bonds. This will bring the company’s average interest rate down to 1.4%.
這遠低於任何個人能夠借入資金的利率,有效聯邦基金利率接近 5%。該公司最近宣布完成了另一次 10 億美元可轉換債券的發行。這將使該公司的平均利率降至1.4%。
By investing in MicroStrategy, investors can get leveraged investments in Bitcoin at a far lower rate than they otherwise could. This is why many who believe in Bitcoin are putting a significant premium on MicroStrategy over Bitcoin itself.
透過投資 MicroStrategy,投資者可以以遠低於其他方式的利率獲得比特幣槓桿投資。這就是為什麼許多相信比特幣的人對 MicroStrategy 的重視超過了比特幣本身。
However, because convertible debt could be converted into equity, there is a potential for shareholder dilution. This would eliminate significant value from the low-cost debt strategy, especially since nearly 90% of the company’s debt is convertible.
然而,由於可轉換債務可以轉換為股權,因此存在股東稀釋的可能性。這將消除低成本債務策略的巨大價值,特別是因為該公司近 90% 的債務都是可轉換的。
MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Acquisition Is Adding Value, but Is It Enough at This Price?
MicroStrategy 的比特幣收購正在增加價值,但這個價格足夠了嗎?
The company addresses this idea using its BTC Yield measurement. After accounting for possible dilution, this shows the added value of investing in MicroStrategy over Bitcoin. It achieved a positive BTC Yield of 12% in 2024 and expects it to be between 4% and 8% over the next three years. This shows that the strategy is adding value.
該公司透過其 BTC 收益率衡量來解決這個問題。考慮到可能的稀釋後,這顯示了投資 MicroStrategy 相對於比特幣的附加價值。 2024 年,BTC 收益率達到 12%,預計未來三年將在 4% 至 8% 之間。這表明該策略正在增加價值。
However, is it adding enough value to justify the company’s $16 billion valuation over its Bitcoin holdings? To me, the company's valuation is over double the value of its Bitcoin, while it only provides a 4% to 8% yield compared to paying for Bitcoin itself.
然而,它是否增加了足夠的價值來證明該公司對其持有的比特幣 160 億美元的估值是合理的?對我來說,該公司的估值是其比特幣價值的兩倍多,而與支付比特幣本身相比,它只提供 4% 到 8% 的收益率。
Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
Benzinga 不提供投資建議。版權所有。
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The information provided is not trading advice. kdj.com does not assume any responsibility for any investments made based on the information provided in this article. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile and it is highly recommended that you invest with caution after thorough research!
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