MicroStrategy 会被迫出售比特币吗？

本文将重点关注 MicroStrategy 债券的结构，并分析在债权人提出现金赎回要求的情况下，MicroStrategy 是否可能被迫出售比特币来偿还债券持有人。根据目前的债务结构，我们认为强制平仓的可能性极低。然而，鉴于比特币价格的极度波动，一切皆有可能。

MicroStrategy, a business intelligence software firm, has become a prominent player in the Bitcoin market since announcing its strategy to allocate its treasury to the cryptocurrency in August 2020. As of March 8, 2023, the company holds over 250,000 Bitcoins, making it one of the largest institutional holders. However, this strategy has raised concerns among some analysts, particularly regarding whether MicroStrategy might be forced to sell Bitcoin to repay bondholders in the event of a cash redemption request from creditors.

商业智能软件公司 MicroStrategy 自 2020 年 8 月宣布将其资金分配给加密货币的战略以来，已成为比特币市场的重要参与者。截至 2023 年 3 月 8 日，该公司持有超过 250,000 枚比特币，使其成为比特币市场的主要参与者之一。最大的机构持有者。然而，这一策略引起了一些分析师的担忧，特别是在债权人提出现金赎回要求的情况下，MicroStrategy 是否可能被迫出售比特币以偿还债券持有人。

To assess this scenario, we must first understand the structure of MicroStrategy's bonds. According to our knowledge, the company has issued seven rounds of publicly traded convertible bonds since announcing its Bitcoin strategy. Two of these bonds have been fully redeemed, leaving five outstanding bonds with a principal value of $4.25 billion.

为了评估这种情况，我们必须首先了解 MicroStrategy 债券的结构。据了解，自宣布比特币战略以来，该公司已发行了七轮公开交易的可转债。其中两支债券已全部赎回，剩下五支未偿还债券，本金价值为 42.5 亿美元。

These bonds have varying terms and conditions, but they generally offer holders the option to convert their bonds into a specified number of shares of MicroStrategy common stock at a predetermined price before maturity. Additionally, some bonds also provide holders with the right to redeem their bonds for cash at specified intervals before maturity.

这些债券有不同的条款和条件，但它们通常为持有人提供在到期前以预定价格将其债券转换为指定数量的 MicroStrategy 普通股的选择权。此外，一些债券还赋予持有人在到期前按指定时间间隔赎回债券的权利。

The following table summarizes the key cash redemption dates for the five outstanding bonds:

下表总结了五只未偿还债券的主要现金赎回日期：

Source: Bond issuance documents

资料来源：债券发行文件

Note: The stock must trade at a price more than 30% above the conversion price for 20 out of any 30-day rolling trading window, whether consecutively or not.

注意：在任何 30 天滚动交易窗口中，无论是否连续，股票交易价格必须在 20 日内高于转换价格 30% 以上。

For example, the 0.625% 2028 bonds can be redeemed for cash on March 15, 2027, if the average closing price of MicroStrategy's common stock exceeds $186.23 per share for 20 out of any 30-day rolling trading window. As of March 8, 2023, MicroStrategy's stock price is trading around $214, which is above the cash redemption price. However, the stock has only been above this price for 11 out of the past 30 trading days, which means that the cash redemption option is not yet available.

例如，如果 MicroStrategy 普通股在任何 30 天滚动交易窗口中的 20 天内平均收盘价超过每股 186.23 美元，则 0.625% 2028 债券可以在 2027 年 3 月 15 日赎回现金。截至2023年3月8日，MicroStrategy的股价交易价格约为214美元，高于现金赎回价格。然而，在过去 30 个交易日中，该股仅 11 个交易日高于该价格，这意味着尚未提供现金赎回选项。

It is important to note that these bonds also have a zero-coupon structure, which means that no interest payments are made until maturity. However, the conversion price adjusts over time to account for the lack of interest payments.

值得注意的是，这些债券还具有零息票结构，这意味着到期前不支付利息。然而，转换价格会随着时间的推移而调整，以解决利息支付不足的问题。

Given the structure of these bonds and the current market conditions, we believe that MicroStrategy is unlikely to be forced to sell Bitcoin to repay bondholders in the near term. However, if Bitcoin prices were to drop significantly, for example, to around $15,000, and MicroStrategy could not incur further debt, analysts might need to reconsider this scenario.

考虑到这些债券的结构和当前的市场状况，我们认为 MicroStrategy 短期内不太可能被迫出售比特币来偿还债券持有人。然而，如果比特币价格大幅下跌，例如跌至 15,000 美元左右，并且 MicroStrategy 无法承担进一步的债务，分析师可能需要重新考虑这种情况。