MicroStrategy 會被迫賣出比特幣嗎？

本文將重點放在 MicroStrategy 債券的結構，並分析在債權人提出現金贖回要求的情況下，MicroStrategy 是否可能被迫出售比特幣來償還債券持有人。根據目前的債務結構，我們認為強制平倉的可能性極低。然而，鑑於比特幣價格的極度波動，一切皆有可能。

MicroStrategy, a business intelligence software firm, has become a prominent player in the Bitcoin market since announcing its strategy to allocate its treasury to the cryptocurrency in August 2020. As of March 8, 2023, the company holds over 250,000 Bitcoins, making it one of the largest institutional holders. However, this strategy has raised concerns among some analysts, particularly regarding whether MicroStrategy might be forced to sell Bitcoin to repay bondholders in the event of a cash redemption request from creditors.

商業智慧軟體公司MicroStrategy 自2020 年8 月宣布將資金分配給加密貨幣的策略以來，已成為比特幣市場的重要參與者。使其成為比特幣市場的主要參與者之一。然而，這項策略引起了一些分析師的擔憂，特別是在債權人提出現金贖回要求的情況下，MicroStrategy 是否可能被迫出售比特幣以償還債券持有人。

To assess this scenario, we must first understand the structure of MicroStrategy's bonds. According to our knowledge, the company has issued seven rounds of publicly traded convertible bonds since announcing its Bitcoin strategy. Two of these bonds have been fully redeemed, leaving five outstanding bonds with a principal value of $4.25 billion.

為了評估這種情況，我們必須先了解 MicroStrategy 債券的結構。據了解，自宣布比特幣策略以來，該公司已發行了七輪公開交易的可轉債。其中兩支債券已全部贖回，剩下五支未償還債券，本金價值為 42.5 億美元。

These bonds have varying terms and conditions, but they generally offer holders the option to convert their bonds into a specified number of shares of MicroStrategy common stock at a predetermined price before maturity. Additionally, some bonds also provide holders with the right to redeem their bonds for cash at specified intervals before maturity.

這些債券有不同的條款和條件，但它們通常為持有人提供在到期前以預定價格將其債券轉換為指定數量的 MicroStrategy 普通股的選擇權。此外，一些債券還賦予持有人在到期前按指定時間間隔贖回債券的權利。

The following table summarizes the key cash redemption dates for the five outstanding bonds:

下表總結了五個未償還債券的主要現金贖回日期：

Source: Bond issuance documents

資料來源：債券發行文件

Note: The stock must trade at a price more than 30% above the conversion price for 20 out of any 30-day rolling trading window, whether consecutively or not.

注意：在任何 30 天滾動交易視窗中，無論是否連續，股票交易價格必須在 20 日內高於轉換價格 30% 以上。

For example, the 0.625% 2028 bonds can be redeemed for cash on March 15, 2027, if the average closing price of MicroStrategy's common stock exceeds $186.23 per share for 20 out of any 30-day rolling trading window. As of March 8, 2023, MicroStrategy's stock price is trading around $214, which is above the cash redemption price. However, the stock has only been above this price for 11 out of the past 30 trading days, which means that the cash redemption option is not yet available.

例如，如果 MicroStrategy 普通股在任何 30 天滾動交易窗口中的 20 天內平均收盤價超過每股 186.23 美元，則 0.625% 2028 債券可以在 2027 年 3 月 15 日贖回現金。截至2023年3月8日，MicroStrategy的股價交易價格約為214美元，高於現金贖回價格。然而，在過去 30 個交易日中，該股僅 11 個交易日高於該價格，這意味著尚未提供現金贖回選項。

It is important to note that these bonds also have a zero-coupon structure, which means that no interest payments are made until maturity. However, the conversion price adjusts over time to account for the lack of interest payments.

值得注意的是，這些債券還具有零息票結構，這意味著到期前不支付利息。然而，轉換價格會隨著時間的推移而調整，以解決利息支付不足的問題。

Given the structure of these bonds and the current market conditions, we believe that MicroStrategy is unlikely to be forced to sell Bitcoin to repay bondholders in the near term. However, if Bitcoin prices were to drop significantly, for example, to around $15,000, and MicroStrategy could not incur further debt, analysts might need to reconsider this scenario.

考慮到這些債券的結構和當前的市場狀況，我們認為 MicroStrategy 短期內不太可能被迫出售比特幣來償還債券持有人。然而，如果比特幣價格大幅下跌，例如跌至 15,000 美元左右，而 MicroStrategy 無法承擔進一步的債務，分析師可能需要重新考慮這種情況。